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Not so at The Barclays, faint hope of Kooooch putting together a low round to get into contention, but a bogey on the second and currently tied 67th is not looking good.
I've add Jason Dufner ew first 4 at 33/1
Good Luck
Nice one guys.
After a very rewarding week last week, I'm really disappointed with the prospect of these two events.
From A betting point of view I can't get too excited about either event, the Russian Open for its very weak field and the unknown of a new course and Deutsche Bank for the opposite but equally frustrating feel, with a high quality field, plenty of course form all of which suggests that the cream and hence the poorly priced market leaders should rise to the top.
But for sake of having an interest on a Thursday and Friday, l have made small investments in.....
Russian Open
Paul Peterson - 66/1, youngish American who managed five top 5's on the Asian Tour last year and is ranked 9th on the order of merit this year.
Jazz Janewattananond - 80/1, 19 year old Thai player of much promise. Opened with a 65 at the European Masters last month, he has some good results on the Asian Tour. He is only going to get better, probably has more potential than most when it comes to winning a golf tournament on the European Tour.
Jaco Ahlers - 100/1, He has won twice on the Sunshine Tour over the last 12 months, so gets a tentative pick as a golfer who is a proven multiple winner and there aren't many of those in the field this week.
Henrik Stenson - 16/1, Henrik is former course winner is a decent alternative with reasonable value compared to the 3 number 1 ranking contenders.
Brendan Steele - 150/1, he has a top 10 finish here in 20111 and has shot plenty of rounds in the 60's around here, I've also taken 4/1 on a top 20 finish for Brendan Steele.
David Hearn - 200/1, I have to confess if I think about it too long, David Hearn in this field doesn't look to be too clever a pick. But if I don't think about it too much, David Hearn is having his best year to date, he has 4 tops 10's including a play off loss and 3rd place finish at his native Canadian Open.
We are always looking for players who tick boxes, clearly Joost Luiten ticks a whole load of boxes this week and there is no obvious reason why he shouldn't be backed, even at 20/1. As for me, I've always had a weakness for ignoring the obvious, so as a few alternatives to Kaymer and local favorite Luiten, I'm on:
Tommy Fleetwood - 40/1, was having a great season until a disappointing missed cut at The Open, missed the cut in the next two events he played, which means he hasn't played 4 rounds since the Scottish Open in early July.
If well rested and fresh as opposed to rusty, he has the game to suit this course and the skills set to cope with the wind.
Richie Ramsay - 33/1, players who do well at the Trophy Hassan II event, seem to do well here, Ramsay won in Morocco this year, he's having a very good season and looks a decent bet this week.
Chris Wood 50/1, another player to fit the profile of a likely winner around here. Not played that much recently but if he starts well he could well be in the mix come Sunday afternoon.
Thomas Pieters - 75/1, Ice Tiger sums up my own reasoning perfectly. The one major concern I have is that on a course where errant drives can find trouble and lead to drop shots, Pieters is one of only 8 players on tour who has hit the fairway with less than 50% of his drives this season.
Alejandro Canizares - 80/1, On seeing the tee times, all 4 of my picks are in the afternoon side of the draw. This is an event where the weather can be a factor, with one side of the draw sometimes getting 'the luck of the draw'.
So I wanted to take one player from the morning starters and have stuck with the Morocco theme as Canizares won that event in 2014, he's shown a bit of form recently, the risk is he has always been a bit of a hit and miss player, but if he's on his game this week, conditions should suit and at 80/1 could be good value.
With the early tee time I'm also taking the 70/1 for FRL.
Good Luck All
With an opening triple bogey, its clearly the rusty version of Tommy Fleetwood as opposed to the well rested and fresh version.
Can't see Fleetwood even making the cut now.
At least Pieters appears to have brought his good form to Holland and luckily for you, Mr. Ice so has David Horsey.
I'd also add that after posting my picks, I half addressed my achilles heel of ignoring the obvious and had a saver on Joost Luiten at 20/1, just enough to ensure I get my money back and freeroll next week, if he should win.
Long way to go yet though.
Estanisiao Goya - 50/1, half decent course form, good record in the wind including a win, a sudden return to form last week with a second place finish, good start yesterday.
Andy Sullivan - 22/1, seven shots of the lead but quality player, enough said.
I liked Thomas Pieters a lot, I like him even more now :-)
The best price of 75/1 lured me in for the second win as much as anything , I'm sure the bookies will not be so generous next time out.
Well done Ice, lets keep this going.
Going to be busy with work for the next couple of days so had to get in early this week.
BMW Championship
Another play off event that switches courses, with 2013 being the one time they previously played here.
Not too far from Whistling straits, the course is said to been designed as links style course and looking at 2013, you can see a number of links and wind players faired well.
Zach Johnson - 28/1, if you skip by the obvious chances of Day, Stenson, Rory, Spieth, Fowler etc, the most obvious value bet has to be Zach Johnson. He won the event on this course in 2013, he's the reigning Open champion.
Louis Oosthuizen - 50/1, Louis was absent in 2013 but I'd imagine this course and conditions would be perfect for him.
Paul Casey - 66/1, Having a great season and as with Louis you would imagine this course and conditions will be ideal for Paul Casey.
Russell Knox - 100/1, in 2013 it was noticeable that ball strikers as opposed to grip it and rip it players did particularly well, Furyk shot a 59 and Kuchar a 61, both should do well again, but at 2-3 times the price I think Knox is worth a shot. He's another player who has had a very good season and is still improving.
No course form to go on and this early inn the week, I've not come across any useful inside info, which means I've had to try and work out the right time of profile myself.
I've decided that we are looking for good ball strikers, with accuracy tee to green and also ruled out players that are not blessed with great length of the tee.
Danny Willett springs to mind but then again with my R2D investment he springs to mind every week. First week back and priced at just 14/1, I cant back him this week but wont be too miffed if he should win.
Matthew Fitzpatrick - 25/1, unusually inconsistent week in Holland for Fitz, he threw in a 60 with 3 very mixed bags.
With young players it doesn't take much to fix what ever is broke, so I fully expect him to be hitting plenty of fairways and greens in regulation this week. Close to that first win and a new course for everyone is a great leveler for Fitzpatrick.
Tommy Fleetwood - 50/1, his first round back last week was full of rust, cobwebs and cow dung. His second round was much better but he missed the cut by one.
I'm trusting he didn't waste his weekend off, as at his best in this field he has a decent chance and 50/1 represents very good value.
Alexander Levy - 50/1, sometimes I get suckered in by the price, Levy at 50/1 is such an occasion. He's well rested which can work either way, at 50/1 I think he's worth a speculative each way tipple.
Kristoffer Broberg - 66/1, time to have another go with Mr. Broberg. I think he's continued to play well and he would fall into the category of not being far a way from a really big week. If ball striking and accuracy tee to green is at a premium this week, he won't let you down.