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It's another challenging week on the European Tour, with as far as I can see, the only recent course form to be found for an event on the 2013 Challenge Tour.
Byeong Hun An - 28/1, after a quiet summer he won in Korea last week, An played in the 2013 Challenge Tour event here and finished a not too shabby tied 12th.
David Lipsky - 66/1, playing very well at the moment, one shot off the play off last week, he may not be a 'houshold' name but he was a winner on tour last year and also won the Asian Order of Merit which is no mean feat.
Jaco Van Zyl - 66/1, last week was his first tournament back for two months and he finished a credible tied 14th, this included a round of 65 and 66. He already has three top 3 finishes on tour this year including at the Open de France.
Lucas Bjerregaard - 150/1, ticks the same box as An with a tied 12th here in 2013 and ticks the same box as Lipsky in finishing one shot off the play off last week. Those boxes are the right boxes to tick so at 150/1 Lucas B looks good value this week.
Graeme Storm - 225/1, he's struggling at 127th in the R2D so needs a big week to get inside the top 110 and secure his card for next year. Similar story last year and then he got the job done with a 2nd place finish at the European Masters. Storm has shown a bit of form recently, if he can get it going he can compete with the best, 225/1 makes him worth a speculative pick.
Tour Championship
I'd been struggling for a bit of inspiration here, but managed to find some courtesy of a Chinese fortune cookie :-)
The colour red will bring you luck!
Clearly it has to be Patrick Reed - 40/1, its written in the stars.
I'm also on:
Justin Rose - 14/1, very strong course form and playing well.
Paul Casey - 50/1, finished 4th in his only other appearance here, had a great season, capable of finishing off with a big result.
I've been posting on here a while, I joined this thread as it was a good place to share insights as you put it, but there was also some good exchanges of banter, I mean sometimes, people even questioned my sanity and sexuality!
The interest level in recent weeks, seems to have gone flat and to be honest if you hadn't have a come a long, I would have probably stopped sooner, figuring I'd give it a rest and come back next year, probably for The Masters when there is a wider appeal.
I like your picks this week from Kaymer through to Howell and looks like you are already ahead of the game in getting the best prices.
Now that I'm here I may as well declare my picks for the week.
For me I will be surprised if the winner doesn't come from one of the market leaders, certainly somebody priced at 33/1 or lees, their credentials are so strong for this week.
But I couldn't pick just one or two or even three, so apart from saying come on Danny Willett go and get a big bag of those juicy R2D points on offer; with 6 places, I've gone for a few speculative each way chances.
Byeung Hung An - 40/1
Graeme Mcdowell - 50/1 (big week possible me thinks)
Eddie Pepperell - 66/1 (I was very early in getting this price)
Sean O' Hair - 100/1 (always seen him as a good links player, also backed him at 8/1 for Top American)
Tom Lewis - 140/1
Graeme Storm - 150/1
Oliver Fisher - 300/1
Good Luck Ice Tiger and any lurkers out there
Well the lack of recent tournament play around Woburn makes this a bit of a shot in the dark this week.
The Seniors did play here last month and the event was won by Colin Montgomerie, which might not give too many pointers as his strike rate on the seniors tour is pretty high.
Though you'd have Monty as a tee to green guy, the same can be said of 2002 winner at Woburn, Justin rose, great game tee to green, but not one to trust on the greens.
So tree lined course, not overly long, seems to suit ball strikers with accuracy as opposed to bombers.
EDIT: Just read a tweet from Chris Wood saying Woburn playing ridiculously wrong, so maybe the weather has played into the hands of the bombers.
That said, I don't think my guys are particularly short so hopefully no harm done.
Like last week I think the value for the leading players is none existent.
Lowry, Willett, Donaldson look to have strong chances and it wouldn't be a surprise if Gmac, Molinari, Poulter, An, Kjeldesen, Donald, Fitzpatrick or Wood won, but priced up between 16/1 and 33/1 which do you pick and if you back more than one, can you really do so with too much confidence,
So this week I've taken the alternative route, a few tee to green 'specialists' available at healthy prices.
Tommy Fleetwood - 40/1, I was gearing up for a decent bet on Tommy Fleetwood at last weeks Dunhill Links, but after some decidedly dodgy form leading into the event I deserted him.
He finished a never nearer 13th in the end, but that could have been so different if he'd played the last 5 holes of his first round at St. Andrews in Level par instead of 5 over which included an ugly 8 on the pa5 14th.
Its all ifs and buts but if Fleetwood had played those 5 holes in an ordinary level par, he'd have finished the week tied for the lead on 18 under.
This will be the 5th week straight that he has teed it up but two missed cuts from the last 4 events, mean he hasn't played too hard or under any real pressure, last week suggested the game was now coming around and for a player coming into form and who's strength is normally tee to green, conditions and circumstance could well suit Tommy Fleetwood this week.
Peter Hanson - 66/1, at his best he is seriously good. Hanson has been struggling with injuries for a while now, but after failing to make a cut since the Open de France at the beginning of July, Hanson does seem to be getting back to form and fitness with a tied 13th last week and a tied 19th the previous week.
He does have form on tree lined courses and this course could well suit a resurgent Peter Hanson.
Thomas Aiken - 70/1, another guy who's strength is tee to green. He's only flew back from America at the beginning of the week after trying his luck in the Web.com tour qualifiers, trying to win a card for next years PGA Tour.
It looked like Aiken was going to miss out on, with one round to play he was ranked 95th, when only the top 25 players would win a PGA Tour card, but a final round 65 saw him come through the field and jump up to 23rd on the final placing's of the Web.com Rankings and win the right to play on the PGA Tour next year.
So no back in Europe and hoping to secure a top 60 on the R2D, Thomas Aiken must be feeling pretty proud of himself and enjoying life.
Full of confidence and a game to suit the course, he may well keep the fell good factor going.
Good Luck All
Canizares, Bourdy and Fitzpatrick to win their 3 ball.
Returns £51
Be lucky
Good Luck!
A decent player who has slipped down the betting recently. Won in Abu Dhabi early this year & finished 4th in Dubai & 9th in French. Hit two rounds in the 60s here last year so value at the price.