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Anyone that follows the golf knows that Rafa Cabrera-Bello just can't be trusted to keep it together on the final day. This week on paper at least he looks to have probably the best credentials to win this, but in a field where you can make strong cases for a dozen or so others, past painful experiences mean Mr. Bello doesn't make my final cut for an outright bet.
I will however chance my arm at 33/1 for first round Leader.
So on to the players that did make the final cut....
Thomas Pieters 20/1, very impressive last week, on that basis he seems to be ready to add to his two wins from last season. Course will suit and should be able to handle predicted windy conditions.
Eddie Pepperill 66/1, first player in the portfolio this week. he ticks so many of the right boxes, this could be the week for his first win on tour. As a backup 12/1 top Englishman looks decent.
Richie Ramsay 80/1, has dark horse credentials, played well under the radar last week, no real course form here but this is the first time he comes here in some kind of current form the conditions and set up should play to his strengths.
Peter Hanson 40/1, after missing the places by one shot at 150/1 last week, I see no reason to give up on him this week in a weaker field. 18/1 top continental also looks interesting to me.
Kristoffer Broberg 66/1, eye catching tie for low round of the day last Sunday, he's always faired marginally better at Qatar in the Desert Swing. Has form in the wind, looks decent value for someone who won the second to last event of the 2015 season.
Finally, small ew on Matthew Baldwin 200/1 outright, but double the stake at 150/1 for first round leader, playing in first group of the day.
Brandt Snedeker - 18/1, Sticking with in form Sneds 18/1. He also has very strong course form to match, with a win and two runners up finishes here.
Then spreading the love a little on a few players further down the field.
Graham Delaet 50/1, never really got going last week, but he's gone on record as saying this is one of his favourite events. He tends to be a bit of a horses for courses player and was 2nd and 9th in last two appearances here.
JB Holmes 50/1, lost in playoff last year. This week is ideal for JB so hopeful of another good performance.
Hunter Mahan 80/1, tentative pick here. Another player with decent course form and a player who has declared his liking for these courses and thus event. First time out this year, so you are never quite sure what you are going to get.
Shane Lowry 100/1, hooked me on Lowry with his generous 100/1 as much as anything else, though don't under estimate he 7th place last year. He blew the cobwebs away at the Eurasia cup two weeks ago and could well be in for a good week at a big price.
Probably just as well, as usually after a good week I'm fighting the urge to back half the field!
Dubai
I think the Rory factor this week, means you are better off betting without Rory, especially if you think Rory is assured of a top 5, meaning you will be assured of 6 places on ew.
I picked out Alexnader Noren 66/1 without Rory early on.
Plenty of others with recent good results in the desert and past even form Bello, Rock, Stenson, Olesen, Wiesberger, Sullivan, An, Coetzze, to name just a few.
With not being able to put the time in to find a reason for crossing players off my list, I'll probably just back a couple of personal favs for interests sake.
Phoenix
Same scenario for me here, on the surface, there must be at least 20 players with strong consistent course form and I just don't have the time to come up with a 'logical' reason to rule them out.
So I'm going with the initial gut feeling Kevin Na 33/1, he's been playing very well and is one of the many with good course form.
Harris English 80/1 6 places and 100/1 5 places, is going to get my backing after a very impressive one over par final round at Torrey Pines, though rightly overshadowed by Brandt Snedeker who we know shot the round of the year, with a 3 under score.
Again I'll add a couple of my personal favs to cheer along through to the back nine on Sunday
Good Luck All
Yes, last week I spend a lot less time than usual studying and end up with one of my best weeks, less obviously can be more, as I managed a 50/1 winner and 33/1 second in the FRL, my favorite golfer wins in Dubai at 28/1 and I manage a 100/1 third at the Phoenix.
Tshwane Open
Agree that Coetzee is most likely winner but I spent my money elsewhere looking for alternatives....
Trevor Fisher Jr, 22/1 - Last year he went into the last round tied with Coetzee, but having won the week before it looked as if Fisher was running on empty, eventually finishing 10 shots behind George.
Decent form in the desert finished tied 26th with Coetzee last week, at 22/1 or 20/1 just about represents ew value
Staying local for other 2 picks:
Dean Burmester 33/1, 3rd last year, multiple winner on Sunshine Tour
Zander Lombard 40/1, 2nd, 12th and 4th in last 3 european tour events
Mention for Matthew Baldwin 200/1 on his way back from injury, despite a final round 76 still managed tied 26th in Abu Dhabi against a much higher quality field, not saying he will win but that price is too big, 5/1 top 20, 16/1 top 10 could be interesting but I am liking 28/1 top Englishman 4 places or top GB and Ireland 35/1 4 places.
Plenty of talent with winning records around here, but in search of a little ew value I'm going back to JB Holmes 28/1 solid recent and event form.
Next Shane Lowry 40/1, rarely has a bad tournament on links / coastal courses and good results over the last two weeks.
Matt Jones 80/1, always looks comfortable by the sea, he had some of his better results when he was an also ran most weeks on tour. Now an established winner and recent victor over Jordan Spieth, he looks good value this week.
The quality at the head of the field threatens to spoil the ew chances this week, but a couple of big prices with course form but not the obvious quality of others
Bryce Molder 100/1
Chesson Hadley 250/1
I am officially back in the game this week, done all your bets and and Dean Burm / Fisher double lol...I need to catch up!!
I have just put on:
J Harding & Anthony Micheal without chwartzrel & coetzee @ 200/1 & 350/1 respectively?
What has to happen for a return? I Cant get my head round it, oh and its £2.50 e/w on both
I'm not sure how you managed to get those prices after completion of day one, but if you have backed J Hardig 200/1 and A Micheal 300/1 without Schwartzel and Coetzee, it means exactly what it says.
So if Coetzee wins, Schwartzel is second and Anthony Michael third at 300/1, your bet takes out the first two. so you would have a 300/1 winner!
Same applies to the place side of the bet, if your bet is 5 places ew and Coetzee and Schwartzel finish top 5, you are paid out down to 7th place.
Good Luck.
I have taken a picture as proof, because I have a feeling IF i come into any winnings it will be classed as an 'error'.
I know your not the only winner, but I have had so much success with your tips I cant deviate for the minute! I still trying to get a follow back on twitter off Thomas Pieters to thank him haha OJ!!
No problem if they finish outside top 10, just as long your men finish top 5.
Yep will be interesting to see what happens if even of the bets come in.
Glad you've done Ok from my ramblings, lets hope it continues and lol at your stalking of Thomas Pieters :-)