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Looking at other markets this week, I've added Danny Willett 18/1 4 places in top European market.
Alternatives are 11/2 top 10 and I've had a saver on this, but at odds of just over 7/2 to finish in top 4 of the Europeans and the chance he might land the 18/1 win, I feel this is a decent alternative bet.
Normally if I'm dabbling on FRL bets it will be to replicate the players I've backed outright, or in a full field of 156 players, a player going out early.
Going out on both sides of the course with less than 2 hours between first tee time and last tee time, I don't think tee times really come into play today.
So, looking for players who have been known to get off to a flier and / or in form.
Not too many players have shot rounds in the 60's around Doral since the renovations, so this is another factor to consider.
So here's my shortlist for First Round Leader, ew 5 places.
JB Holmes - 30/1, Set the course record last year with an opening 62 and playing very well this year, wouldn't be a shock if he was leading tonight.
Brooks Koepka - 40/1, Opening 68 last year, will play with no fear from the off, could go either way.
Bill Haas - 66/1, two top 10's since the course renovations, shot a 65 last year, has lead the Masters after day one.
Danny Willett - 66/1, debut last year and his last round of 68 was his best round, no stranger to leading tournaments after day one.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 100/1, no real course form, but one of the in form players from Europe who usually starts strong.
Chris Wood - 150/1, you never know.
Danny Willett the main hope, though a good second round from Brooks Koepka would improve our chances.
Then there is Chris Wood, level par tied 28th, ready to make a move up the leaderboard. Maybe.
great weekend of golf though..
Very well done, long may the run good continue.
Not a penny on Adam Scott, but at odds of 12/1 I honestly didn't even come close to feeling like kicking the cat.
Talking of cats, last week showed for me anyway there are more than two ways to skin a cat.
I think it was clear from my posts last week, that I was well committed to Danny Willett in various markets and am sure Danny Willett is now top of my all time winners list by now.
Last week saw returns for;
FRL - 66/1 share of place
Outright 80/1 - full place return at 20/1
Outright 66/1 - full place return at 16.5/1
Top European 18/1 - joint first for a 9/1 winner and a 4.6/1 place
Top Ten Finish 11/2 - third place gave full return at 11/2
Willett was the only none major winner up there competing on Sunday and I though it was an excellent weekends viewing.
Surely the bookies will have wised up now and his odds will be halved for future events.
As for Adam Scott, hats off to the guy, two double bogeys over the front 9 and he comes back to win like that.
Good Luck to everyone for the weeks to come.
True Thailand Classic
It's a bit of a mixed field this week, a couple of world class locals in Aphibarnrat and Jaidee, plenty of other locals and Europeant tour players with attachments to the course that should make use of their local knowledge and then a wide range of Europeans and Asians, some with winning former, some knocking on the door for that first win and as for the rest, well they also have a chance. So.....
Alexander Levy - 28/1, last time out I identified Levy as a player retuning to form with improving results and he duly delivered with a second place at 66/1.
He looked very good in Australia and though he has not played competitively here before, the course should suit his aggressive style.
If Levy is going to continue his improving run of results, there's only one place he can finish after his second last time out and that's the winners circle.
Prom Meesawat - 80/1, this is not only his home country, it is also his home town and his home course.
He's shot 65's in each of the last two events he's played here, and goes into this event with some good recent form.
Prayed Markaseng - 50/1, very similar to Meesawat, as this is his home town and home course.
Markaseng is now 50 years old, but his recent form against the young guys is good and he won here three years ago.
Miguel Tabuena - 66/1, already a winner on the Asian Tour, came very close to his first European tour win last month.
Missed cut last time out in Australia, young enough to not worry about missed cuts, had a couple of weeks to reset and will no doubt fancy his chances of competing this week.
Andrew Dodt - 160/1, last years winner, I remember checking his course form / Asian Tour form during day 4 of this event last year and taking the 40/1 on offer for in running.
Dodt had a previous top 10 here and a runners up finish in Thailand, last year he hardly played a bad hole and afterwards admitted he loves the course and enjoys the climate conditions in Thailand.
For one week only, odds of 160/1 look like a worthwhile punt.
Alternative value bets, could be 6/1 top 20, maybe 14/1 top 20 or 14/1 3 places top Australian.
Johan Edfors - 250/1, finally a small speculative punt on 'local' Johan Edfors.
Edfors is attached to Black Mountain and won an event on the Asian Tour here in 2010 and was 38th here last year.
Having lost his European tour card, he's in golfing limbo at the moment, picking up the odd spot at a European tour and Asian Tour event and playing on the Challenge Tour.
He managed a win as recently as October 2014 in China on the European Challenge Tour and has some not too shabby results when he does play on the European Tour.
Inconsistency seems to be the problem which no doubt comes with his aggressive style of play, something that he has proven should not be a problem around here.
I've seen worse 250/1 shots.
Good Luck All
Plenty of recent form and course form to go on here, though I believe they have changed the grass on the greens, if or how much this will affect some players I'm really not sure.
I starting getting into the stats last week and this has helped increase my confidence on my first three picks this week.
Harris English - 33/1 (6 places), English was third three events back and 10th at the WGC last week , his all round game looks to be coming together very nicely and on a course like this a good all round game is necessary.
Decent course form as well, means Harris English is expected to have a good week.
Webb Simpson - 45/1 (5 places), 40/1 (6 places), Webb Simpsons stats suggests his game is in seriously good shape in 2016.
The one weakness and concern would be his putting, but for his last two events he has shown a positive strokes gained putting against the field, so this would suggest he has found something that works with the short putter.
Good course form box also ticked, I like Simpsons chances this week.
Sean O'Hair - 80/1 (5 places), 66/1 (6 places), lost his game for a couple of years, more than likely started with a loss of form on the green which began to affect the rest of his game.
Historical Strokes Gained Putting stats read:
2013 - 150th
2014 - 80th
2015 - 60th
2016 - 9th!!!
He was 14th last time out at the Honda Classic and lost in a play off last year, so another player that looks ready to strike.
Patton Kizzire - 80/1 (6 places), at the beginning of the year, Kizzire went on me short list for a first win on Tour before the Masters.
I like what I've seen of Kizzire, some weeks he's at a bit of a disadvantage as he's playing courses for the first time, but he know this venue very well, so the value is there.
Danny Willett - 22/1, not so much a pick this week, more of a confession.
No course form, coming off a great week, but one that must have been mentally and physically tiring, 22/1 is no value.
But I'm having a saver on Willett as I won't be able to stop myself from routing for him.
I think with golf betting you have to have a portfolio for each event, its very rare for me anyway, where you can pick just one or two players.
Its also very easy to back 'half the field' and minimize your opportunities of a big win.
I tend to rank my picks and will have my potential big winners for the week, followed by a player or two that would give me a decent profit and then a 'saver' or two, who would get my money back.
I will also weight my bets according to odds.
With my strategy of normally swerving the market leaders, I tend to need one place return a week to make a profit.
In recent works that's paid off very nicely as my main picks have been the ones that have done the business.
In the last 5 weeks, I have managed to find full place returns at 100/1, 90/1, 66/1 and 66/1 on 'main bets'.
80/1 winners don't come around so often.
If all else fails or looks like failing, the in-running market is there to save us, OR increase the losses.
No guarantees in this game, golf betting is a minefield, there are very fine lines between profit and loss, and you can look a mug for months on end if you are not careful.
It should be fun first, though of course the sniff of a big win is what makes it fun :-)
Good Luck
So when you say portfolio how do you mean? Have you had a kitty for years which you bet out of similar to a poker bankroll but just for golf betting? />
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Valspar Championship & True Thailand):
In a field of 156, I like to spread the love around a little.
I always go with a couple of main bets, but add a few others as the back up plan.
I used to keep a record of profit and losses, but have let that slip, like you my 'entertainment ' funds are lumped together and they are invested mainly in golf and poker.
I do use multiple betting accounts for golf betting,you can pick up some bonus value, as the there can be a large spread across the bookmakers for odds on the same player and extra places paid on the place returns.
There is some discipline there though, as I have a wife who knows when I'm winning or losing!
Very well done Dave Any2Suited.
In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Valspar Championship & True Thailand):