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Go back to basics and do what you know best.
Back Danny Willett!!!
Top up on Danny Willett at 18/1 outright
Plus, end of round 2 leader - Danny Willet 20/1
Another good day for Scott Hend, who leads by two from Uihlein with Thomas Pieters a further one back after a 66 today. Could be a profitable day tomorrow.
Thomas Pieters 25/1 -11 Tied 3rd
Scott Hend 45/1 -14 1st
Chapchai Nirat 80/1 -2 Tied 52nd
Angelo Que 200/1 -4 Tied 34th
Another brilliant week with a 45/1 WINNER with Scott Hend and a 25/1 third place with Thomas Pieters.
Thomas Pieters 25/1 -15 Tied 3rd
Scott Hend 45/1 -18 WINNER
Chapchai Nirat 80/1 +4 Tied 67th
Angelo Que 200/1 -5 Tied 40th
Hope you were on this one. That is four winners (8/1, 18/1, 14/1, 45/1) & five runners ups (55/1, 40/1, 35/1, 22/1, 12/1) and other places (100/1, 70/1, 28/1, 70/1, 25/1) in the last seven weeks.
Unlucky on losing in the playoff, but still well done on a 10/1 winner
At a course length of less than 7,000 yards, with just 3 par 5/s, its easy to jump to the conclusion that long hitters don't have any advantage.
For sure a layout of less than 7000 yards makes it a competitive course for everyone, but last years winner Lahiri is one of the longest hitters in the game and on further inspection, it would appear to succeed on this course, players rely very heavily on their combined score over the pars 5's and then the target is to play the remaining 60 holes in level par.
So take Lahiri last year, he was minus 8 on the par 5's, +1 for the other 60 holes played, runner up SSP, 6 under on the par 5's, 1 under on the remaining 60 holes, 3rd place Lagergran 6 under on the par 5's, level on the remaining 60 holes.
So we are looking for players who can score on the par 5's, but not an out and out bomber as we need players who can keep it in play on this tight tricky course.
Plenty of course form to be found and it always help if you are on someone who has shown they can perform in the conditions.
Lahri is a strong favorite and I like the chances of Luiten, but so do the bookies, so I'm liking Skybets market of without Lahiri and Luiten, paying 5 places.
David Lipsky 40/1, Improving each week, he has a top 20 around here on the Asian Tour, so knows the layout.
Big fish on the Asian Tour, should be full of confidence this week.
Ben Evans - 90/1 outright, 66/1 without favs, went into the 'Hero Open 2016' notebook following his performance at this event last year.
Evans played the par 5's in 9 under, the remaining 60 holes in plus 7, which was still good enough for a 12th place finish and gave Evans his first pay cheque on the European Tour.
He's been playing well in 2016, comfortably making the cut in higher quality fields on courses he hadn't played before.
We will ignore his missed cut in Thailand last week and trust he put the spare time to good use to prepare for an event that Evans himself must be thinking presents one his best opportunities of the year.
Jeev Mikah Singh - 100/1, Last weeks 7th place finish in Thailand was his best finish on tour since winning the Scottish Open in July 2012.
He's really struggled with injury for 2 years plus, but has been quietly (until last week), getting back to form and consistency.
Perhaps significantly for this week, his best result in 2015 when struggling with injury was a tied 24th position here, so a fit and confident Jeev Mikah Singh playing in his National Open, looks worth a punt at 100/1 without the favorites.
Thanyakon Khrongpha - 100/1 outright, somebody at Skybet must be on a similar wavelength to me here, as they only go 50/1 without the favourites.
Khun Thanyakon, was the guy playing with Piya Swangarunporn last week when Piya, shot the round his life to finish second.
It was noticeable just how much support he gave and the enjoyment Thanyakon got out of seeing his playing partner perform so well.
Thanyakorn didn't do so badly himself finishing 19th and this followed up a 15th place in Malaysia the previous week.
Consider also that he finished 17th here last year, playing the par 5's in 9 under, a buyount player with course knowledge who can draw on his experience of a few days ago, could be an interesting prospect at 100/1.
With an early tee time, I certainly feel the 80/1 for FRL is worth a dabble.
Others on the radar were or maybe still are...Siddikur Rahman 80/1, Rashid Khan 100/1, Chariagh Kumar 100/1 and Mithun Perera 150/1, all with stacks of good course form and in the case of Rahman and Khan, have won wround here.
I can't find any real inspiration for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which may not be a bag thing.
Where as first time winners are rare, (wen aren't they), I'm not convinced there's that big a premium on course form, though of course it's always handy.
To me it looks like a course that rewards those players who arrive with their game in good shape and are on a run of good results, if that's the case Ice Tigers picks tick the right box.
It wouldn't take much fine tuning from Rory to win this at a canter and who's to say Adam Scott can't keep the run good going.
Justin Rose - 16/1, the closer we get to The Masters, the stronger I'm feeling that the door to a green jacket is starting to open wider for Justin Rose.
I suppose it could be argued that to win at Augusta, Rose needs to show a little more form leading up to the event.
I'd argue he's already done that and maybe if he hadn't have turned up at Doral with the flu, spent two days bed ridden which lead to back issues over the first days of Doral, Justin Rose may well have had a WGC to his name now, certainly a top 5.
So presumably, no illnesses or aches and pains this week, meaning Justin Rose is set for a big week and will put a marker down for his claims of a Green Jacket with a win at Arnies.
Mark Lieshman - 50/1, a player in good form, who I think should be and will be winning more tournaments very soon.
I'm then backing my 3 main picks from last week, none of which made the cut, in fact one could barely complete his first round.
Maybe this contradicts my point that we are looking for players in form and on a run of good results, but last week was a strange week with tricky conditions and some strange rounds.
So trusting myself not to have been sooooo wrong last week, my 3 main picks from last week, get a mulligan.
Harris English - 66/1
Webb Simpson - 80/1
Sean O'Hair - 150/1
I always keep an eye out for everyone else's picks, if at least one person on here beats the bookies each week, it's worth it.
Good Luck this week.
RAHMAN
LIPSKY
KHRONGPHA
PETERSON
NIRAT.
hope we all get a good run!
A very difficult event to predict, with anybody able to beat anybody on their day.
No course form to go in, the event is in Texas so wind or being able to play in the wind could be a factor.
No real time to study, so I tried the predictor comp on the PGA Tour site and my 4 semi finalists came out as Rory, Mark Leishman, Aphibarnrat and a coin flip between Paul Casey and Danny Willett.
So I've gone with:
Paul Casey -33/1, the long running story for Paul Casey in 2016 has been his decision not to commit to the European Tour which means he is not eligible for the Ryder Cup. Much has been made about the likelihood of a European likely to be in the worlds top 20 not playing in the Ryder Cup.
Sometimes headlines right themselves and it wouldn't surprise me if the Paul Casey Ryder Cup story went to the next level this week with the 'Europes World Matchplay Champion will miss the Ryder Cup'.
Casey's matchplay is excellent and he pushed Rory in the quarters all the way last year.
He's playing well and is not afraid to square up to anybody.
Danny Willett - 35/1, Last years 3rd place, has the belief he can go all the way this year.
Could be heading for a big English quarter final against Paul Casey, if that happens I'd say this quarter final will produce the eventual WGC.
Marc Leishman - 50/1, very good matchplay golfer, playing well and is Australian which seems to be as important as anything when looking for a winner in 2016.
Kiradech Aphibarnrat - 110/1, 'only' has to get past DJ, local favorite Jimmy Walker and Rober Streb to win his group and then no doubt beat players ranked top 10 in the world to reach the semis, but when I clicked the buttons on the PGA Tour website, that's what Kiradech did.
Very good preparation last week with an excellent final round at Bay Hill.
Won the Paul Lawrie Matchplay last year, so obviously likes the format.
Then I have had a saver on Rory at 11/1, an ew dabble on Charley Hoffman at 150/1, who has been threatening to pull off a big result.
Puerto Rico Open
I'm not looking at this event in any great depth this week, but one player that jumps out at me is Dean Burmester 50/1.
The South African gets an invite to makes his debut on the PGA Tour this week and is in pursuit of a late qualification for The Masters.
He won The Chase to The Investec Cup last month which is the Sunshine Tours equivalent to the R2D.
Ranked 87th in the world, full of confidence and self belief with an Augusta goal in his sights, 50/1 looks good value for a player with big dreams.
Others I may consider if the mood takes me are fellow South African George Coetzee at 33/1, Boo Weekley at 33/1 and dare I mention Graham Delaet at a very unattractive 18/1.
Good Luck everyone.
If I remember rightly you used to this the other way around, have a flutter on the regular events and skip the majors.
Eight players priced between 7/1 to 20/1 is a rare sight in a golfing major and fair play to SkyBet for going 8 places to give us mug punters a sense of value when looking further down the field.
I had a bit of a love in last month when Danny Willett was priced at 66/1 for the WGC at Doral and had a number of bets that came in.
I also had two 'pending' bets, which were an ew double on Danny Willett in the WGC at 66/1 and Justin Rose for The Masters at 25/1 and an ew double on Danny Willett at 66/1 with Brandt Snedeker for The Masters at 50/1.
So with Willett finishing third at Doral I'm in the unusual position of standing to win more than I would normally stand to win, if either Rose or Snedeker manage to place, top 5.
I topped up my Justin Rose investment with a free £20 ew at 28/1 thanks to a £40 win in one of the SkyPoker Cheltenham freerolls.
I haven't backed Sneds to win yet, but I guess it makes sense to, though at my stakes, a Sneds place will still be promising to pay me more than a Sneds win.
I have felt for some time that Justin Rose is the man to be on this year, his Augusta record is good and last year he played really well for 4 days, only to be pipped by Jordan Spieth.
More than any other player, Rose looks to have geared his playing schedule to peak at The Masters and even with a lighter schedule, his form coming into the event this year, is stronger than it was last year.
The man himself is talking a good game and the stats tell us he's added a few yards to his drives, which can only help his chances around here.
On news of the arrival of master Zachariah James Willett, I rushed to take the 70/1 (6 places) on Danny Willett and will probably top up with SkyBet to get the 8 places, since he's a generous 66/1.
After day one of the Houston last week, I was one of many that rushed to back DJ, getting 20/1 especially when SkyBet went 8 places.
Much has been made of his efforts to improve his short game which could help around Augusta, but if I'm honest I'm not sure DJ has it in him to win a major and feel I was bit trigger happy last week in jumping on the bandwagon.
At the moment its, a much lighter portfolio than normal for me thanks to my ew doubles; I will probably add a couple or three more, With Patrick Reed and Bill Haas, leading contenders on the shortlist.
I do like Rickie Fowler, but would like to see him at 20's to make it seem worthwhile.
Angel Cabrera at around 200/1 will get a few pennies for old times sake.
I think Jason Day is a worthy favorite at 7/1, but with Spieth, Rory, Bubba and Scott right behind I just don't think those odds make much sense from a betting point of view.
I would also like Phil Mickleson, but he'd have to be 33's to get my backing.
Fascinating week ahead, golf should be the winner, but hopefully a few of us can make a bit of money as well.
£2.50 e/w @23
Haven't looked at this thread for some time but well done to all who've had winners.
Be lucky.