Get in the Hole! 2017 Season!

Ice_Tiger

Dean & Deluca Invitational

We are at the Colonial Club where it is all about the fairways & greens. Seven of the last eight winners have finished in the Top Ten for Scrambling & GIR so these are the qualities that we are looking for rather than Driving Distance or Driving Accuracy.

Garcia in 2001 was the last player under 30 to win this title so looking at experienced players is certainly a good plan here. 

Top of the market is Jordan Speith at 6/1 followed by Scott, Kuchar & Zach Johnson. There are question marks against all of these so we are looking for an experienced player at long odds.

Danny Lee 40/1

This is Lee's type of course where he can play fairway to green. Feel he is playing well but needs to convert good play into shots gained & it could be this week. 10th last year; I am expecting better this year.

Emiliano Grillo 100/1

Doesn't meet my age criteria but I see great things for Grillo. He is a bit hit & miss and I am hoping for a hit here.

Sean O'Hair 125/1

Looking back to his best and on a course that should suit, great odds for a reasonable contender.

Fabian Gomez 150/1

Two wins in his last 23 events makes these odds too attractive to ignore. This course should suit him down to the ground and was 9th at the Well Fargo this month.

Troy Merritt 300/1

Got his first tour win last season but has kept largely under the radar. Needs to be more consistent but a punt worth taking at the price.

Think backing Kuchar for a Top Ten finish should be profitable at 11/8 as he appears to be playing his best but I just don't have the confidence that he can win.

Good Luck!

mrdavies

jeepers danny willett absolutely flying! Anyone on him? what price at the start, I had little bit @12/1 yesterday

TheDart

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Dean and Deluca & BMW PGA):

jeepers danny willett absolutely flying! Anyone on him? what price at the start, I had little bit @12/1 yesterday
Posted by mrdavies

Same as you Mr. Davies, I didn't back him pre tournament (which felt so wrong), I'm pretty sure he was best priced 12/1 pre.

After he started with a couple of early birdies yesterday, I buckled and managed to get 12/1 with one 'slow' bookmaker.

Not a big bet, just enough to 'cover my losses' and a little bit more.

Also did a Willett / Spieth double at the same time.

As you say, he's been superb today, he's 11 under after 13, but could easilly be 14 under by now.

Long way to go, but Danny boy is looking good at the moment.

Ice_Tiger

Nordea Masters

It's the Nordea Masters in Stockholm on a course which favours the big drivers. Lesser drivers cannot be ruled out but driving length followed by driving accuracy are top of my list this week.

Henrik Stenson is the favourite followed by Westwood & Noren. As regulars know, I never back Stenson so having him as the 6/1 favourite provides me with greater value for the players I fancy (unless he goes & wins it). Alex Noren is a player I like but I don't think he is quite a 16/1 shot. A would not be surprised to see him go very close here. Westwood is in good form & this is a course where he has done well before so shouldn't be ruled out.

Thomas Pieters 22/1

A big hitter and a favourite of mine. On a course with five par five holes, he could do a lot of damage. Hit an albatross today in practice.

Rikard Karlberg 28/1

Coming back to form with an impressive second at Wentworth last week. Loves this sort of course and was 4th here in 2013.

Peter Hanson 35/1

Getting back to his best and now playing a course that is ideal for him. Gave us a good run for three rounds last week & I expect him to go even closer this week.

Scott Hend 40/1

Won for us in Thailand in April and back on a course where he can open up his shoulders. Looked good for three rounds at Wentworth on a less suitable course but should give us a good run for our money here.

Good Luck!

Ice_Tiger

The Memorial

The Big Three of Day, Speith & McIlroy are all here and all coming off wins in their last event. Day is the favourite at 13/2 with Speith & McIlroy close behind on 7/1. There are plenty more big names as well with Matsuyama, Dustin, Kuchar, Fowler & Bubba all here.

My view is that driving accuracy and GIR are the two most important statistics to follow here. Former winners tend to do relatively well as do players who have gone close before.

I cannot see any value in the the big three here so am looking for players that can beat them. I see Fowler & Matsuyama as having decent chances at the prices but am prepared to look at longer priced options on players who I expect to be winning shortly.

Justin Thomas 50/1

Got his first tour win back in January but his form drifted for a while. Looks to be back on it again with an impressive third at the Players Championship behind Day. Should be well suited by the course.

Kevin Chappell 55/1

Three second places already this season (twice behind Day)suggest that a win could be just round the corner. He was also second here in 2013 so if he can match course form with current form.......

Jason Dufner 66/1

Dufner meets the criteria I have set but his hit or miss putting means that we need this sort of price to be with him. An impressive 6th last week suggests that he might be finding his putts.

Good Luck!

Ice_Tiger

Lyoness Open

A weak field for Austria's premier golf event with Weisberger, Luiten & Wood the three stand out players (all previous winners here), all at single figure prices to win here. We can pick our favourite of these three or look for longer priced players to take them on.

We have decent course form for the Diamond Country Club course and I think that GIR, Scrambling & Putting will be the key statistics to look for here.

I am going for one of the favourites then a few players who have the ability to leap out of the pack once or twice per season to pull off that big result.

Bernd Wiesberger 15/2

A shorter price than I would like for a player who can be inconsistent and out of things pretty quickly but I prefer his chances to Luiten (who has gone off the boil) and Wood who is  defending & looking for back to back wins. It is his home tournament and hopefully he will hold it together better than last season when he was dead after the first round. He has three top five finishes  (including a win) in the last five years here. Scrambling is important here & he topped the Scrambling stats at Wentworth - a continuation here will see him very close, if his putting is on song.

Lee Slaterry 40/1

In a field of this strength, 40/1 is more than fair. Slattery doesn't come to the party every week but if he comes this week then he could win it. He has two Top Ten finishes here so likes the course and is right up there in GIR stats, which should be vital here.

David Horsey 80/1

Horsey is one of those players that disappears for most of the season but once or twice jumps out there to grab a win or a place in a weaker field. He has been on my radar quite a bit recently but the either field has been too strong or the price too short. This week, the price is long enough & the field weak enough. He probably will miss the cut but his chances of a win are a fair bit better than 80/1.

Marc Warren 80/1

Another player that you wouldn't put your mortgage on but has hit some impressive rounds recently, sadly interspersed with some poor ones. Cut out the poor rounds & Warren could be close here.

There are a few other players that I will be watching - Dunne, Burmester, Broberg, Jensen, Lorenzo Vera & Van Der Walt.

Good Luck!

Ice_Tiger

St Jude Classic

An  average standard field for this event at the tough Southwind course in Memphis. Not the easiest event to find the winner with quite a few long priced winners & quite a few first time winners.

Firstly, it is the week before a major so cannot be certain which of the bigger name players will be giving it 100%. Certainly some bigger names appear to prefer a weekend off. Secondly, this is course that gives the shorter hitters a greater chance. GIR, Scrambling & Putting are all worth more than Driving Distance here so it means that more players have a chance. Thirdly, it has bermuda grass and a different range of players do well on bermuda. Fourthly, a lot of players do well on their debut here. Fifthly, a lot of previous winners got there debut PGA win here. 

I like matching up courses and Southwind matches with the OHL Classic, the Sony Open, the Puerto Rico Open & the RSM Classic. I have looked at players who have done well at these venues as well as they should also do well her.

Dustin, Koepka & Mickelson lead the market but I feel we need to be looking at bigger priced options for an event where a three figure priced winner is becoming normal.

Harris English 25/1

Winner here in 2013 and back to his best, only beaten by Speith last time out. Looks the most likely winner but likely winners have a habit of failing here.

Graeme McDowell 60/1

Won the OHL Classic this season and players that win there often perform well here. It is McDowell's sort of course but lack of course form gives us a good price here.

Matt Jones 80/1

Finished third here last year so clearly likes the course. Hitting form again with a very good eighth place last week. Could give us a good run at a good price.

Fabian Gomez 125/1

Only nine players have won tournaments more than once on bermuda grass since 2008 and Gomez is one of them. One of those was his shock win here a year ago. Another win wouldn't be such a shock.

Ben Crane 125/1

A winner here two years ago & another with two wins on bermuda grass. Seems to hit form out of the blue so why not on a course that he loves.

Rob Oppenheim 500/1

Seeing as this event specialises in winners at this price, I decided to include one. Oppenheim has right kind of game for this course with his strengths around the green. He is showing some consistency so why not?

Good Luck!

Ice_Tiger

US Open

Where do we start?

This could be the trickiest tournament to predict the outcome of all season. The US Open is notoriously difficult to predict but at Oakmont, it is doubly difficult because there will be double, triple & quadruple bogeys that will end many a top player's tournament.

Jason Day is a pretty solid 13/2 favourite with McIlroy 15/2, Speith 10/1 & Dustin Johnson 16/1. Everyone is here and we need to whittle the field down to a few good value bets.

There is no one area to focus in on here because it will take a combination of driving accuracy, driving distanace, GIR, scrambling, putting & mental fortitude to get close here.

Oakmont has staged this event eight times with the winning score last time (2007) being five over par with ten over par giving a top six finish. Oakmont has brutal rough and fast greens, a combination to test the best and most will fail. 

If we look at previous winners, we see quite a few top players & multiple major winners (Speith, Kaymer, Rose, McIlroy, McDowell, Woods, Cabrera) so it takes a quality player but quite often these players were on their way up whe they won this event. More specifically, we should look at US Opens at Oakmont. Every Oakmont US Open winner in the last hundred years has gone on to be a multiple major winner.

In 2007, Cabrera was the winner but behind him was a real mixture of other bombers (Woods, Bubba) mixed with canny short game players (Furyk, Toms) so while good distance gives an advantage, it appears to be a fairly even contest for all styles of golf. 

I think GIR & Putting are the most important stats here and that it will take top putting to be in contention. Good driving will be an advantage but so will scrambling.

I really cannot bet at single figure price on an event like this. I accept that Jason Day is the most likely winner because he has the best all round figures and has the mental fortitude to hang in there when things are going badly. Likewise, I will be leaving Speith & McIlroy alone as well. Dustin Johnson has his merits but not at this price for me.

I am starting at around 33/1 and looking for players that have the ability but I am also looking for a streak of toughness to get there when all looks lost.

Danny Willett 45/1

Willett won the Masters and is still 45/1 for a repeat here which I consider to be more than fair. I don't think everyone has caught on to how good Willett really is yet and I think this course could be right up his street because Willett can keep churning out the pars whilst other blow their chances & who knows, this contest could well go to the one who keeps going the longest.

Brooks Koepka 50/1

Koepka fits the bill for me as another major winner in waiting. He has threatened a few times but I think he can step it up now. Second placed finishes at the Byron Nelson & St Jude Classic show that his form is right up there as well as top five finishes in this event in the last two years. If he has the belief then this could be his break through week.

Brandt Snedeker 70/1

Snedeker is another who shows his best in the trickiest of circumstances. His win at the Farmers Insurance a couple of months back was in the most testing of conditions where he kept dropped shots to a minimum and watched everyone fall away around him. It could be the same this week.

Matt Fitzpatrick 80/1

Not sure that he is quite ready to win a major yet but he is durable as he showed with a top ten finish at the Masters and is in form as he showed winning the Nordea Masters last time out. Another blunt Yorkshireman who could be there or thereabouts on Sunday.

Rafa Cabrera Bello 175/1

RCB has been our friend this season & owes us nothing but he is another who could step it up to the next level. He has been weak around the greens but improvements there have put him in contention several times this season and if he can hold it together mentally then he could be a big priced winner.

Soren Kjeldsen 200/1

A top ten finish at Augusta suggests that he can perform in majors & in tough conditions. Not consistent enough but he has odd weeks where he holds it all together & at 200/1, I am happy to punt this is one of those weeks.

Andrew Johnston 300/1

This would be a shock result but Johnston has put a few solid performances together recently and his recent win at Valderama is a good guide as the qualities to win there are similar to Oakmont. Decent value at 300/1.

Angel Cabrera 500/1

Call me a sentimental old fool but I have been on Cabrera for all his major wins so am going again here. Everyone says he is past it but the said that in 2007 and that was just the start of it for Cabrera. His general results are average to poor but in the biggest events & on the toughest courses, he sometimes pulls one out of the bag. At 500/1, Let me be sentimental.

A few others that I am looking for big performances include Leishman 90/1, Horschel 80/1, McDowell 150/1, Goosen 150/1, Lingmerth 175/1, Toms 400/1, Hoge 400/1, Ofilvy 500/1 & Oppenheim 1000/1.

Good Luck!

Ice_Tiger

I will be having a few FRL bets where I believe the early starters will have an advantage.

This includes:

Andrew Johnston 200/1

Tom Hoge 250/1

Rob Oppenheim 500/1

Sam Horsfield 500/1

Good Luck!

Ice_Tiger

BMW International Open

Garcia, Willett & Stenson lead the market at 9/1 but I prefer to look for longer prices on the week after a major. A bit short on time this week but going each way for the following:

Scott Hend 50/1

Jeunghun Waing 66/1

Kiradech Aphibarnrat 80/1

Matt Southgate 250/1

Good Luck!

Ice_Tiger

Quicken Loans National

Patrick Reed & Rickie Fowler head the field at 16/1 in a pretty open contest. My picks are:

Byeong Hun An 33/1

Harold Varner III 100/1

Shawn Stefani 100/1

Bud Cauley 150/1

Good Luck!

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Quicken Loans & BMW Int Open):

BMW International Open Garcia, Willett & Stenson lead the market at 9/1 but I prefer to look for longer prices on the week after a major. A bit short on time this week but going each way for the following: Scott Hend 50/1 Jeunghun Waing 66/1 Kiradech Aphibarnrat 80/1 Matt Southgate 250/1 Good Luck!
Posted by Ice_Tiger

80/1 place on Aphibarnrat keeps betting fund topped up.

Ice_Tiger

French Open

A decent field with McIlroy the 9/2 favourite with Kaymer, Willett, Westwood, McDowell & Fitzpatrick all 25/1 or less.

My picks:

Francesco Molinari 25/1

Bernd Wiesberger 30/1

Rafael Cabrera Bello 33/1

Mike Lorenzo-Vera 200/1

Good Luck!

Ice_Tiger

WGC Bridgestone

The market leaders here are Day, Speith, Dustin Johnson, Koepka, Watson, Rose, Scott & Grace.

My picks:

Jim Furyk 30/1

Bill Haas 66/1

Scott Piercy 90/1

Good Luck!

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Quicken Loans & BMW Int Open):

French Open A decent field with McIlroy the 9/2 favourite with Kaymer, Willett, Westwood, McDowell & Fitzpatrick all 25/1 or less. My picks: Francesco Molinari 25/1 Bernd Wiesberger 30/1 Rafael Cabrera Bello 33/1 Mike Lorenzo-Vera 200/1 Good Luck!
Posted by Ice_Tiger

Molinari finished SECOND at 25/1 & Cabrera Bello finished FOURTH at 33/1 to give us two nice winning place bets.

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Quicken Loans & BMW Int Open):

WGC Bridgestone The market leaders here are Day, Speith, Dustin Johnson, Koepka, Watson, Rose, Scott & Grace. My picks: Jim Furyk 30/1 Bill Haas 66/1 Scott Piercy 90/1 Good Luck!
Posted by Ice_Tiger

Piercey finished SECOND by a shot at 90/1 to give us another winning place bet.

splashies

Great work!

Ice_Tiger

Scottish Open

Shane Lowry 20/1

Rafael Cabrera Bello 30/1

David Lingmerth 35/1

Kiradech Aphibarnrat 66/1

Thorbjorn Olesen 70/1

Mike Lorenzo Vera 350/1

Good Luck!

Phantom66

For the Open, Skyboost 15/8 for any of Day, Johnson, Speith or McIllroy to win.

Seems a fair shout to me and then have a few e/w bets with 7 places paid?

weecheez1

free bets from portugal winning euros £1.50 e/w westwwood kaymer mickelson and spieth freerolling lifes good

Phantom66

WP cheezy

At least I know someone who was happy portugal won.

For the open I have taken the boost 4way bet and added the following e/w

Stensson Mickelson McDowell Reed Stricker Colsaerts and Westwood.

Health Warning. I cant remember winning at golf since Faldo was winning majors and Mcnulty used to be a great e/w bet for fair weather opens.

Ice_Tiger

It's The Open. Can we find the 2016 winner? What does it take to win this year?

The Open is back at Troon for the first time in 12 years and history shows us that every winner here since 1950 has been American - Palmer, Weiskopf, Watson, Calcavecchia, Leonard & Hamilton. I think the rest of the world has caught up the Americans since then so I don't feel this is that relevant a statistic apart from showing that Americans can handle links courses.

The course is set out with nine holes going one way then the other nine returning us to the clubhouse so the wind can have a big effect particularly if it changes mid round. Traditionally the opening nine is the easier here with the prevailing wind with the toughest holes coming after the turn. The only clue from the weather forecasts is that it may be particularly tricky late on on Friday.

There have been claims that golf has become a young man's game in the last few years but the recent Open winners suggest otherwise. The last ten winners have been Tiger Woods, Padraig Harrington (twice), Stewart Cink, Louis Oosthuizen, Darren Clarke, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy & Zach Johnson which actually suggests that older golfers do relatively well in this event.

A more interesting fact about the previous Troon Open winners is that they had all won a tournament that season before the Open, suggesting that form is important.

A high %ge of recent Open winners have gone close previously so experience of being in contention could be important.

tbc

jordz16

After reading a few articles it seems long and accurate hitters will have the best chance

therefore took 10/1 on DJ

a couple of punts on Stenson 33/1 and Bubba 66/1

and then a big outsider of Finau at 400/1 all ew

splashies

Have not been following the golf for what seems like ages. So just picked 3 players for interest. Will probably add some in-play bets when my 3 are out of contention.

Have spent £29.22 over the 3 players and placed win only bets. I'll be in profit by £1000 if any of the 3 win....

Matsuyama 74/1

Fitzpatrick 99/1

Colsaerts 179/1

Ice_Tiger

We have four clear favourites ahead of the rest of the field - Day 9/1, D Johnson 9/1, McIlroy 10/1 & Speith 12/1. I have a long term bet on Day at 18/1 and prefer to have more shots at longer prices. For what it is worth, I think Dustin is the best bet of these four as he is very much in form whilst having all the attributes to master the course. Day hasn't found his usual consistency and McIlroy & Speith would need to be close to 20/1 to interest me here. Can go with one as a main bet with a few back up bets. If so, it has to be Dustin.

Here are my thoughts on the leading contenders in a few words:

Day - quality but not at best

Dustin - form horse, worthy favourite, has major in bag

McIlroy - inconsistent

Speith - lost his mojo

Scott 25/1 - possible but doesn't jump out at me

Garcia 28/1 - right profile but usually the bridesmaid

Stenson 33/1 - often thereabouts but rarely there

Grace 33/1 - meets the profile, possible winner

Fowler 33/1 - one day but probably not this year

Rose 35/1 - not in best form but meets the profile

Mickelson 45/1 - maybe one major left in him

Westwood 50/1 - meets the profile, could be his time

Oosthuizen 50/1 - reasonable chance

Lowry 50/1 - may need another year

Kaymer 50/1 - could be close but unlikely winner

Willett 60/1 - inconsistent but at a fair price

tbc.

Ice_Tiger

Here are my dozen to beat the other 140 and even then we might not even pick up a place on a course where one bad shot can cost you your chances.

Dustin Johnson 9/1

Dustin is the form player in the world right now & has got the monkey of not having won a major off his back. He has the power to blow everyone away and is looking better around the greens as well.

Brandon Grace 33/1

Grace meets the profile here. He is the right age, he is in form, he has a win this season & 20th last year. He has been in contention in several majors and this could be his week.

Justin Rose 40/1

Not in the best of form but is the right age. A tenth placed finish at the Masters shows that he can lift his game for the big event.

Lee Westwood 50/1

Meets all the criteria. The right age, in form, finished in top 15 in five of his last six events. Could just do a Darren Clarke.

Louis Oosthuizen 55/1

The right age, two top 25 finishes in this year's majors, an Open win plus a win this season. Could be close.

Graeme McDowell 100/1

18th at the US Open & on a course that should suit him. Tenth last week.

Brandt Snedeker 100/1

Tenth in the Masters, has a win this season (in windy conditions) & is the right age to claim a major.

Jim Furyk 100/1

This is the sort of course where Furyk can compete with the big hitters by staying clear of trouble. Second at the US Open.

Alex Noren 100/1

Been following him this season & he is in top form with two wins in the last month including the Scottish Open. Likes the conditions.

Rafael Cabrera Bello 100/1

Starting to mix it with the big guys. 17th at the Masters. Five top ten finishes this year. Value at the price.

Ernie Els 150/1

Past his best now but still can pull it out for a major. Loves the conditions. One last hurrah?

William McGirt 300/1

A long shot but has the ability to put four rounds together when he needs it. The next Todd Hamilton?

Despite this many selections, we might miss altogether as the following all have their chances: Scott, Kaymer, Willett, Kuchar, Schwartzel, Matsuyama, Leishman, Piercy, Harrington, Rahm, Olesen, Haas, Knost, Shinkwin and we still might have missed the winner.

Good Luck!

Ice_Tiger

Here are a few shots for FRL at decent prices:

Paul Casey 80/1

Alex Noren 80/1

Marc Leishman 80/1

Scott Piercy 100/1

Ryan Palmer 150/1

Colt Knost 200/1

Good Luck!

Phantom66

Happy with day1 1st, tied 2nd and a tied 4th. In fact only McDowell completely out of it.

Long way to go and the weather should shake things up tomorrow.

GL

Phantom66

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (The Open):

After reading a few articles it seems long and accurate hitters will have the best chance therefore took 10/1 on DJ a couple of punts on Stenson 33/1 and Bubba 66/1 and then a big outsider of Finau at 400/1 all ew
Posted by jordz16

GL tomorrow.

With you on Stenson and would like to see him win, if Mickelson wins though I will pick up a bit more profit.

Also rooting for Stricker and Reed to have a good final day and make top 7 for a little extra.

Phantom66

1st,2nd and 4th. Might have to start betting on golf a bit more often :-)