Get in the Hole! 2017 Season!

Any2Suited

Brilliant tipping there Ice Tiger. I had a £1 ew on thanks to your tip. Great start to the season.

joesman1

Well done Stevie boy!!! The bar has been set, 75/1 winner 

Ice_Tiger

Can die happy now!

TheDart

Joburg Open, and I've one particular pick who ticks a lot of the right boxes for me this week, South African Dean Burmester 40/1, first 6 ew with some leading bookmakers.

Won 4 times on the Sundhine Tour in the last 10 months.

Recent form on europeantour, 10th last week, 11th time before that.

The difference this week is he has some strong course form. First two days are played on different courses, last year Burmester shot 7 under on both courses, eventually finishing tied 13th.

First and second last week were young South Africans, Burmester should be thinking if they can do it so can I.

Ice_Tiger

Joburg Open

Not the value of last week but going to go with three heroes from last week plus two decent value bets so small bets this week. this is played over two courses - the West & the East courses over the first two days then everyone plays the East Course for the final two rounds. 

The stats suggest that GIR is the number one priority here - the last four winners were 4th, 13th, 2nd & 1st for GIR.

Christiaan Bezoudenhout - 50/1

Cant desert last week's big hero for us but doubt we will see 300/1 again. 50/1 is fair in an average quality field as I was impressed with his temperament and he can give us another good run.

Trevor Fisher Junior 28/1

It may have gone unoticed by many that TFJ finished tied 8th and had the best score over the final 27 holes. Again, his price is shorter this week but think he is good for at least a place.

Brandon Stone 28/1

Think there will be mixed views on Stone's win last week. On one hand, he was heading for a mental breakdown halfway through the final round but somehow he got it back together to hold on impressively for the win. I think the win could be the making of him & he could get a quick second win as several others did last season. Worth the gamble at the price.

Dean Burmester 40/1

Finished 13th here a year ago and has won four times on the Sunshine Tour since. Should be a good run for our money.

Paul Dunne 80/1

A talented player who I think will make it good eventually. I think he can beat this field if he has four good days and at 80/1.......

Any2Suited

I'm going to use the tried and tested formula of stealing the experts tips !! So will be doing Bezoudenhout, B.Stone , and D. Burmester ew stakes. Cheers and good luck again. 

achill

Used my free £5 bet.

£2.50 e/w double on Burmester @34 and Jimmy Walker @15

Be lucky

Ice_Tiger

Sony Open

This is played on the Waialae Course in Hawaii. The event has been won by Jimmy Walker for the last two years & he is the favourite here at 14/1.

I have been looking at the PGA courses and linking them together in characteristics to try to spot identikit winners for various courses. This has led to me picking out a clear favourite for this week's event.

Graeme McDowell 45/1

This course shares characteristics with El Camaleon, Seaside Course & Harbour Town Links. McDowell won at ElCamaleon a couple of months ago and was 3rd at the Seaside Course, the following week whilst he has a good track record at Harbour Town, winning there three years ago.

I backed GiMac last week & he finished a disappointing 29th but he did improve each round & finished with four birdies in his final six holes. He has the perfect game to triumph here at a generous price.

Peter Malnati 80/1

Think he has managed to stay just enough under the radar to get a good price but he could be one of those players that jumps a level this season. He grabbed his first PGA Tour win at Sanderson Farms in November in a weakened field but he has shown that wasn't a one off by by finishing 10th at El Camaleon & 6th last week at the Hyundai, finishing ahead of Day, Bubba & Dustin. Think this is an 80/1 price on a 25/1 chance so value.

TheDart

South African Open

To complement my strong pick of Dean Burmester, I've added....

Trevor Fisher Jr - 28/1, same observation as Ice Tiger, that Fisher Jr was finishing stronger than anyone else last week.

Lee Slattery - 35/1, decent South African record and spends a lot of time out there, so should be almost local. He's also playing well.

and a small 'just in case' wager on Bez at 50/1

TheDart

Sony Open

Brandt Snedeker - 25/1, a player I've admired for a few years, I thought he looked very good last week and players who play the week before have a good record at the Sony.

Snedeker hasn't played this event for a while and when he did his record was not good, but he's a top class player and I believe this course and conditions should suit him.

An extra confidence boost is Ice Tigers theory about linking course form on similar courses / set ups, something I also look for and give great value to.

Ice reckons players who have done well at Harbour Town could do well here, well Snedeker is a former winner at Harbour Town!


Harris English - 40/1, very strong course form which I like for this event. Playing with new clubs this week and is very bullish about how happy he is with the new clubs.

Edit: Ice Tigers other course link is El Cameleon and English has won this event, so another confidence boost!

Gary Woodland - 66/1, another player with good course form.

Cameron Smith - 125/1, young Australian who played mostly on the Asian Tour last year, but came to prominence with a 4th place finish in last years US Open.

Has some good results in Australia in December, first time here but conditions could suit him and worth a chance at 100/1 and upwards.


Good Luck All!

joesman1

Late posting as work has being getting in the way. 

In the Joburg it's Howell, Walters and Burmester for me. In the Sony it's Kuchar, Snedeker and Woodland. All ew 

 Gl everyone 

Any2Suited

I also thought B. Snedeker did well last week, and with his putting ability if he keeps making fairways he will have chances to post a good score. So have him ew and added  Harris English ew( i bet him a few times last year but just seemed to pick the wrong week).

Brrrrrrr

Attention golf fans don't forget the horses, the Sky Naps Table is back for 2016. 

Details on thread in Betting Chat, you have two weeks left to enter! 

joesman1

I hit the crossbar in Africa last week..... Then in Hawaii a few of us hit the crossbar, the ball then ran along the line, hit the post, then bounced out!!!!! 

Anyway another week.....

In the USA I'm taking a 3 pronged attack with decent priced players. Bit of a lottery as its an event where 3 courses are used and 2 of them new to the tour. Well 1 of them was used in the 70's but player power got it thrown out for being too hard!!!!!

Finau 80/1 Deleat 55/1 (someone took the 60/1 last night ��) and Steele 66/1 (good luck as its only available with Stan James on line) so 50/1. All ew. 

Note paddy paying top 7 1/5 odds.

Abu Dhabi to follow later

Ice_Tiger

Abu Dhabi Open

Big prize money here and it has attracted a top quality field with McIlroy, Speith, Fowler & Stenson leading the betting markets.

There is enough form on this course to know what we are looking for here. As I see it, we need good all round players with GIR, Putting & Driving Distance all important. While top players have done well here, it is interesting to note that the last four winners started at 150/1 125/1 66/1 & 150/1.

McIlroy looks the most likely winner. While he has never won here, he has six top five finishes but it is hard to get excited at 4/1. This means I will be looking for a few outsiders this week to pull off a win.

Thomas Pieters 55/1 Regular followers will know that Pieters made us plenty last season with wins at 80/1 & 50/1 and I want to be with him here. He is a long driver and his putting is getting better & better. He finished 4th here a year ago & is a much better player now so well worth a dabble at this price.

Joost Luiten 70/1 Looking for a player with a liking for the course, Luiten fits the bill as he has finished 6th here on his last two visits. Looks like decent value.

Bryson De Chambeau 150/1 Caught my eye when second is the Aussie Masters a few weeks ago. Definately has the potential to be a top player and with recent winners coming at this price, looks like one to be with this week.

Martin Kaymer has the best record on this course but since throwing away a ten shot lead here a year ago, he hasn't been the same player. For those who believe in redemption, he is value at 20/1 but i think I will settle for the three above.

Also worth noting that SKY Bet are offering 1/4 for 6 places on this event at decent prices.

Ice_Tiger

Career Builder Challenge

This is a tricky event in terms of courses with three courses being used, two of them new to the circuit. It is reasonable strength field with the leading players Reed, Kuchar & Zach Johnson. 

Reed is a pretty good favourite here. He comes into the tournament in good form but it is hard to get too interested at 10/1 so again I am looking for bigger prices that offer some value.

Bill Haas 28/1 Picking a winner here is tricky but Haas ticks the boxes that we think need ticking. He won this event last year, was 6th in 2014, runner up in 2011 & winner in 2010. Haas' record shows that he performs particularly well in the first two months of the year with three of his six PGA titles coming in these months.

Charley Hoffman 45/1 He is a consistent performer now and showed his liking for this event finishing second last year. Should give a good run at a decent price.

Jamie Lovemark 100/1 A promising player with a top twenty finish at the US Open last season. He is a native Californian so should be at home here and has finished top ten in his last two PGA events, the RSM Classic & Sony Open. His last eight rounds have all been in the 60s and he finished 65-65 last week. Not the finished article but at 100/1 is great value.

Robert Garrigus 200/1 A bit of a punt. He has a 2nd & a 6th on two of the courses being used this week so should feel at home. He is 200/1 and has a shot.

 

joesman1

Ok to Eurooe:- 

Twice before I've recommended a big punt on Rory ew approx 4-5/1 in Europe (In the UAE to be more specific). In the knowledge he's v unlikely not to place so we get our money back at least. Both times as it happens he's won!!! 

I'm going in a 3rd time. 

Spieth playing muddies the waters a bit yes, but without him Rory would be 5/2-3/1 so not so easy to back ew. Rory's finished 2nd 4 out of the last 5 years (the other time he was having off the course issues with his old management company). Twice he's picked up penalties in that time that cost him a play off. It's only a matter of time before he picks up the big falcon. 

My other 2 selections are in the 'without Rory and Spieth' market. In effect we are betting on 2 diff tournies in 1 event. 

Dubuisson 22/1-25/1 and Weisberger 30/1-33/1 (I took paddy's 35/1 soz) are the men, both ew. 

Both played well here last year, and both played in The Asia Cup last week to blow the cobwebs away. I expect a strong performance from them.

Rory-Weisberger-Dubuisson finishing order would be nice!!!!

TheDart

Career Builder Challenge

For the third week running I'm partly in agreement with Neil for the PGA event and have gone for:

Graham Delaet 66/1, any regular lurkers will know I've backed Delaet once or twice before

First time out last week he started poorly and looked like missing the cut, but moved through the field impressively over the next 3 days, eventually finishing 7th, which was perfect as I didn't back him.

Tony Finau 66/1, seems to be there or there abouts most week, courses and conditions should suit.


Neil rightly says this is a bit of a lottery and in betting terms it does have the feel of a Grand National type field, a strong looking favourite but anything is possible.

My other two picks are:

Patton Kizzire 80/1, number one on web.com last season, already came close to winning on pga tour in November.

Playing a lot of courses for the first time which can be a disadvantage but this week it's more of a level playing field as Kizzire has played at least two of the courses competitively.

Matt Jones 66/1, he beat Spieth in the Australian Open at the end of November and has form / experience at La Quinta courses

TheDart

ABu Dhabi

If it's the Grand National in the USA, in Abu Dhabi it looks very much like a Gold Cup field at the head of the market at least, with some real quality runners

Would never disagree with Neil on weeks like this and will be happy to see Rory win, as long as I find somebody to take a place behind him

Alternatives for me are....

Agreeing with Neil again...
 
Bernd Wiesberger 50/1 first 6 or 33/1 without Rory and Spieth. I think he could be in for a big year and has form here.

Danny Willett 33/1, I'm a big Danny Willett fan, it doesn't matter who is in the field any time he's priced at 33/1 he looks great value to me

Joost Luiten 70/1, 45/1 without, a couple of 6 place finishes here, been out practicing in Dubai for a week and has a new caddie with plenty of experience on the bag, which could be worth a shot or two.

Peter Hanson 150/1, 100/1 without. I probably wouldn't bother if he was 50/1 but at 150/1 I think he's underrated and well overpriced. He has plenty  top tens here over the last 10 years. Struggled with injury for well over 12  months but starts 2016 with a clean bill of health

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open):

Ok to Eurooe:-  Twice before I've recommended a big punt on Rory ew approx 4-5/1 in Europe (In the UAE to be more specific). In the knowledge he's v unlikely not to place so we get our money back at least. Both times as it happens he's won!!!  I'm going in a 3rd time.  Spieth playing muddies the waters a bit yes, but without him Rory would be 5/2-3/1 so not so easy to back ew. Rory's finished 2nd 4 out of the last 5 years (the other time he was having off the course issues with his old management company). Twice he's picked up penalties in that time that cost him a play off. It's only a matter of time before he picks up the big falcon.  My other 2 selections are in the 'without Rory and Spieth' market. In effect we are betting on 2 diff tournies in 1 event.  Dubuisson 22/1-25/1 and Weisberger 30/1-33/1 (I took paddy's 35/1 soz) are the men, both ew.  Both played well here last year, and both played in The Asia Cup last week to blow the cobwebs away. I expect a strong performance from them. Rory-Weisberger-Dubuisson finishing order would be nice!!!!
Posted by joesman1

This is excellent advice. It is hard to visualise McIlroy failing to get a place here. He may get beaten by a player that has a fantastic week but he will be close. Alternatively, you can back McIlroy at Evens for a Top Five finish as a lower variance bet. This was the bet I had for the R2D Grand Final in December at 5/4 then.

There are lots of question marks about Speith in the desert which makes the McIlroy prices more attractive.

joesman1

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open):

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open) : This is excellent advice. It is hard to visualise McIlroy failing to get a place here. He may get beaten by a player that has a fantastic week but he will be close. Alternatively, you can back McIlroy at Evens for a Top Five finish as a lower variance bet. This was the bet I had for the R2D Grand Final in December at 5/4 then. There are lots of question marks about Speith in the desert which makes the McIlroy prices more attractive.
Posted by Ice_Tiger

Thanks Steve.... Good luck us all this week

Edit:- I've just seen  Betfred have gone 66/1 Olesen in the without market. I've jumped on that as it screams v good value.  

Any2Suited

Carreer Builder :

 

I gone for

 Bill Haas 28/1ew (Good record around course) 

 G.Delaet 50/1ew (Have followed far to often for my own good but once again into the breach...)

 D.A.Points 500/1ew (& 20/1 top 20)Last year he seemed to pop up at a price and in contention. If he can put 4 rounds together he makes the cut and top 20 must be feasible and 125/1 top 6 a bonus!

Abu Dhabi :

Martin Kaymer 20/1ew (Hopefully he can't choke as badly as last time around here!)

Brandon Grace 20/1ew  and Haydn Porteous 150/1ew(Both look in form S. Africans)

Also had few £ on Rory McIlroy and Bill Haas both top 5 including ties at 19/2.

Good Luck all.

yuranASSet

Career Builder: Patrick Reed

I recently backed Reed E/W for the Hyundai.That came up well.  He finished 2nd albeit 8 shots behind Speith. He's a young talent that is starting to flourish. I still think that at 9/1 he still holds value. Especially since he has the 72 hole (Career Builder) record at -28 Under.

Abu Dhabi: Rafa Cabrera-Bello E/W

This is a good value shout. 100/1 for a desert player, in the desert. Ranked 9th on the European tour for GIR's (Greens In Regulation) last year, I see everything coming together to give him a great shout at great value E/W. 

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open):

Abu Dhabi Open Big prize money here and it has attracted a top quality field with McIlroy, Speith, Fowler & Stenson leading the betting markets. There is enough form on this course to know what we are looking for here. As I see it, we need good all round players with GIR, Putting & Driving Distance all important. While top players have done well here, it is interesting to note that the last four winners started at 150/1 125/1 66/1 & 150/1. McIlroy looks the most likely winner. While he has never won here, he has six top five finishes but it is hard to get excited at 4/1. This means I will be looking for a few outsiders this week to pull off a win. Thomas Pieters 55/1  Regular followers will know that Pieters made us plenty last season with wins at 80/1 & 50/1 and I want to be with him here. He is a long driver and his putting is getting better & better. He finished 4th here a year ago & is a much better player now so well worth a dabble at this price. Joost Luiten 70/1 Looking for a player with a liking for the course, Luiten fits the bill as he has finished 6th here on his last two visits. Looks like decent value. Bryson De Chambeau 150/1  Caught my eye when second is the Aussie Masters a few weeks ago. Definately has the potential to be a top player and with recent winners coming at this price, looks like one to be with this week. Martin Kaymer has the best record on this course but since throwing away a ten shot lead here a year ago, he hasn't been the same player. For those who believe in redemption, he is value at 20/1 but i think I will settle for the three above. Also worth noting that SKY Bet are offering 1/4 for 6 places on this event at decent prices.
Posted by Ice_Tiger

Hate to get too excited too early but all three of this week's selections are in the Top Twelve after Round One at 55/1, 70/1 & 150/1 with Bryson De Chambeau (our 150/1 shot) leading the field on -8.

I did something that I don't normally do yesterday - I backed BDC to be First Round Leader at 85/1 so already into profit. It was thanks to other posters on here suggesting FRL bets so I decided to back any of my players that had a morning start today & BDC was the only one so threw a few bob his way.

Any2Suited

I thought i recognised De Chambeau's name on the leader board and checked back here. Very well done and great tip again. Pleased you also got a return on FRL market.

TheDart

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open):

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open) : Hate to get too excited too early but all three of this week's selections are in the Top Twelve after Round One at 55/1, 70/1 & 150/1 with Bryson De Chambeau (our 150/1 shot) leading the field on -8. I did something that I don't normally do yesterday - I backed BDC to be First Round Leader at 85/1 so already into profit. It was thanks to other posters on here suggesting FRL bets so I decided to back any of my players that had a morning start today & BDC was the only one so threw a few bob his way.
Posted by Ice_Tiger

I was hoping you backed BDC for FRL, there's nothing more annoying than picking out a three figure golfer who has a good week and getting nothing back.

This is why I tend to cover myself with the odd FRL bets, especially when they have a morning tee time.

Hopefully this was the first slice of the cake and there's more to follow over the next three days.

I remembered he was one of your picks, so when he was 3 or 4 under and available at 66/1, I added him to my portfolio.

Its a big ask for him to stay up on that leaderboard, but you never know.

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open):

Abu Dhabi Open Big prize money here and it has attracted a top quality field with McIlroy, Speith, Fowler & Stenson leading the betting markets. There is enough form on this course to know what we are looking for here. As I see it, we need good all round players with GIR, Putting & Driving Distance all important. While top players have done well here, it is interesting to note that the last four winners started at 150/1 125/1 66/1 & 150/1. McIlroy looks the most likely winner. While he has never won here, he has six top five finishes but it is hard to get excited at 4/1. This means I will be looking for a few outsiders this week to pull off a win. Thomas Pieters 55/1  Regular followers will know that Pieters made us plenty last season with wins at 80/1 & 50/1 and I want to be with him here. He is a long driver and his putting is getting better & better. He finished 4th here a year ago & is a much better player now so well worth a dabble at this price. Joost Luiten 70/1 Looking for a player with a liking for the course, Luiten fits the bill as he has finished 6th here on his last two visits. Looks like decent value. Bryson De Chambeau 150/1  Caught my eye when second is the Aussie Masters a few weeks ago. Definately has the potential to be a top player and with recent winners coming at this price, looks like one to be with this week. Martin Kaymer has the best record on this course but since throwing away a ten shot lead here a year ago, he hasn't been the same player. For those who believe in redemption, he is value at 20/1 but i think I will settle for the three above. Also worth noting that SKY Bet are offering 1/4 for 6 places on this event at decent prices.
Posted by Ice_Tiger

Think this works out as a pretty profitable weekend.

Pieters finished second at 55/1 & Luiten Tied 5th at 70/1 for 1/3 of a place. Most importantly, McIlroy got a Top Five finish as I mentioned in another post, I got Evens for Top Five so lumped on.

Just need a good final day on the PGA to top off my weekend.

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open):

Career Builder Challenge This is a tricky event in terms of courses with three courses being used, two of them new to the circuit. It is reasonable strength field with the leading players Reed, Kuchar & Zach Johnson.  Reed is a pretty good favourite here. He comes into the tournament in good form but it is hard to get too interested at 10/1 so again I am looking for bigger prices that offer some value. Bill Haas 28/1 Picking a winner here is tricky but Haas ticks the boxes that we think need ticking. He won this event last year, was 6th in 2014, runner up in 2011 & winner in 2010. Haas' record shows that he performs particularly well in the first two months of the year with three of his six PGA titles coming in these months. Charley Hoffman 45/1 He is a consistent performer now and showed his liking for this event finishing second last year. Should give a good run at a decent price. Jamie Lovemark 100/1 A promising player with a top twenty finish at the US Open last season. He is a native Californian so should be at home here and has finished top ten in his last two PGA events, the RSM Classic & Sony Open. His last eight rounds have all been in the 60s and he finished 65-65 last week. Not the finished article but at 100/1 is great value. Robert Garrigus 200/1  A bit of a punt. He has a 2nd & a 6th on two of the courses being used this week so should feel at home. He is 200/1 and has a shot.  
Posted by Ice_Tiger

Picked up 2/3 of a PLACE on Lovemark at 100/1 (1/5 TOP Seven) which works out a touch over 13/1. Add that to the profit from the European Tour & it has been a profitable weekend.

joesman1

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open):

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open) : Picked up 2/3 of a PLACE on Lovemark at 100/1 (1/5 TOP Seven) which works out a touch over 13/1. Add that to the profit from the European Tour & it has been a profitable weekend.
Posted by Ice_Tiger

Well done (again) Steve, nice picks last week. Racing Post followers were also on Lovemark, so I bet the bookies gave a big sigh of relief when he started wobbling on the back nine last night.

As for Europe, well done on Pieters. Can't help but think if Rory sacked his putting coach Dave Stockton and his bizarre methods, and instead relied on his own instinct, he'd bang a lot more of those 6ft birdie putts in. Then it's game over. 

Ice_Tiger

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open):

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2016 Season! (Sony Open & Joburg Open) : Well done (again) Steve, nice picks last week. Racing Post followers were also on Lovemark, so I bet the bookies gave a big sigh of relief when he started wobbling on the back nine last night. As for Europe, well done on Pieters. Can't help but think if Rory sacked his putting coach Dave Stockton and his bizarre methods, and instead relied on his own instinct, he'd bang a lot more of those 6ft birdie putts in. Then it's game over. 
Posted by joesman1

Good job I got on early to get the price.

The Qatar Masters starts on Wednesday this week. I have got my bets on already. Will post up tomorrow.