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Think last week was a week for the bookies, we'd better try harder this week.
It's been a disastrous 2 weeks for me in the European fantasy comp, I'm surprised I'm still top 200, though only just.
I've struggled with the 'pressure' of being on the leaderboard in the fantasy comp and found myself picking the majority of favourites instead of my own fancies, I'm going to revert back to a more healthy mix of fancied runners and lively outsiders.
Splashies, once again your picks looks solid.
Good Luck all!!!
I am guessing this must be the shortest price Tiger has been pre-tournament for several years and with good reason, so I've backed all my selections ew first 5 in the 'Without Woods' market.
Hunter Mahan - 50/1, his season so far and his recent tournament record is good if not outstanding and comes in the 'just under the radar' category. This season Hunter has 5 top 20's + runner up in the world matchplay, in The Memorial he has achieved top 20 finishes in 3 of the 4 previous years. Good enough and big enough to win if he get's in contention.
Henrik Stenson - 50/1, the 2013 version is resembling the world class Henrik Stenson of old, this course will suit Henrik's game perfectly, was right up there after 3 rounds last year but with a final round 80 he finished tied 46th, replace that 80 with a 'simple 70' and the struggling Stenson of 2012 would have finished tied 4th. Great value this week.
Nicolas Colsaerts - 100/1, two top 10's from 10 starts on his debut season on the PGA Tour. With generous fairways, this could be ideal for the Belgian Bomber to make the most of his power game, 100/1 without Woods looks very generous.
I have also backed Graham DeLaet at 90/1 without Woods and 110/1 first 6, last week brought his first experience of being a real contender on the final day, tied 22nd, would suggest he didn't handle that pressure very well, so I'm hoping he will have learnt from the experience very quickly. I may not have backed him this week, but at the odds on offer and on a course that should again play to DeLaet's strengths I can't leave him out.
Colesarts 80/1
Ishikawa 125/1
Jason Day 50/1
Stallings 85/1
Lingmerth 125/1
My £5 free bet from sky has went on D Johnson at 50/1 ew.
His finish last week is very worrying considering his putting is shaky at the best of times. If his long game starts to wobble when the heat is on and his putting gets worse as well you would think he's in for a number of poor sundays!
You could conclude that given DeLaets' seriously impressive tee to green stats, the fact that he hasn't won yet is down to bad putting and it may well be as simple as that.
I think a fairer ananlysis is that putting may be his weakness, but just how weak is it or is it really a weakness that can hold back his progress and chances of winning?
If he consistently hits more greens in regulation than virtually everyone else on tour, potentially is he not looking at more two and three putts than anyone else, as the likelihood is, he faces more long putts (3 putt country putts) than most players as he is scrambling less than most.
He's also ranked 31st for scrambling by the way, which should suggest he doesn't have too much trouble holing out.
DeLaet is by no means down the bottom for a lot of the putting stats, in facts he's nearer half way, I'd understood that the 'strokes gained putting' was the key putting stat and DeLaet is ranked an improving 109th and take his last 3 tournaments he's showing a healthy +ve against the field for strokes gained putting.
Take last weeks winner Boo Weekly, a fellow top 10 player for GIR and much lower than DeLaet on many of the putting stats.
So my conclusion at the moment is, DeLaet has got more game than most, he is improving, he is gaining experience, he has been a winning bet for me on several occasions and as long as the bookies continue to offer value odds he will be on my short list.
As you say GDL is ranked 10th for putting inside 10ft, he's ranked 12th for putts 4'-8', so no problem there.
But then it goes a bit pear shaped.
Putts for 10'15' he's ranked 136th and 15-20' ranked a lowly 162nd making only 11.9% putts between 15-20'
Putting form 20'+ improves to a ranking of 60th.
So Graham DeLaet is not making his fair share of putts from 10 - 20', this matches Neil's groans the other week when he was on GDL for first round leader and said time after time DeLaet's putts just missed for birdie, in that round DeLaet was 100% for GIR and finished day 1 tied 13th.
Now if anyone has read this far, I would like to share a slightly none Graham DeLaet observation....
These stats usually show a right mixed bag at the top of each category but the players ranked top 20 for putts made at 15-20' include, Woods, Mcdowell, Horschell, Mickleson, Henley, Points, Snedeker and Bae, winners of 11 of the 21 strokeplay tournaments this year.
Back to Graham DeLaet it would appear the one area of putting that he is weak on is an area where tournament winners are strong.
So having found my new favourite stat and realised I don't have a pick that is ranked in the top 20, I feel the need to reward my research with an investment, so if I rule out players that have already won, those ranked top 20 for putts made 15'-20' with recent form and course form at The Memorial are Justin Rose, Charl Schwartzel and Webb Simpson and to a lesser extent Chris Kirk and Charles Howell III.
A tied 7th in 2011, with good form this year and odds of 50/1 means Webb Simpson is jumping to the head of my selection list this week and at 100/1 or 80/1 without Woods I will have a small bet on Chris Kirk.
I'm still chuckling at Neils 'hurricane' comment at your misfortune.
Hope you have better luck this week, preferable with Wiesberger
As for Webb Simpson, he was never on my radar this week, so I will have this thread and JD to thank if he gives me a good run for my money.
I take it the 12 week break was mostly down to an injury, so looks like he's still not right, back in the watch and wait category for young Mr. Willett.
In the States Nicolas Colsaerts may as well withdraw and I lost count of how many bogeys Webb Simpson made.
All is not lost though, I've got a Canadian bloke well placed and having slept on my new favourite putting stats I did add Schwartzel at 28/1 before the off.
Back to Europe and I'm hoping Wiesberger will break Splashies recent bad run (not just because this is Splashies thread but because he was also my main pick), he's nicely placed tied 12th 3 off the lead this morning.
I'm not happy to see Francesco Moilnari moving up to 5th as I took him out of my fantasy team at the last minute after reading Jiminez' quotes that the course was probably too long for him (Jiminez), with Molinari relatively short on distance, I swapped him for Peter Hanson.