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so might have forgot to mention had an in play punt on sat morning as my guys seem to be falling away. thought i was just throwing it away half way thru the round but......
edit: just noticed the pic is pending. had a £1 ew on ernst at 100/1
I think the in running markets can sometimes be better value than the pre tournament, in hindsight Ernst was unbackable at 500/1 pre tournament, but after 2 rounds 100/1 was certainly worth a dabble.
I did the same as you but with David Lynn and even finishing second, at 125/1 he more than covered my losses on the pre tournament bets.
The trick is finding the balance and not backing half the field, then again in majors I have ended up backing a dozen or more and still come out with a profit, after all they are 4 day events and as we know a lot can happen over 4 holes, never mind 4 days!
Right next the Players and I can honestly say at this moment in time, I don't have a single player I feel strongly about this week, whereas normally I've got at least a couple of players I know I'm going to back well before the event.
Oh and nice one Splashies, I am sure you will enjoy the Wembley day out.
A slightly interesting confession for you, I once fell over at a motorway service station in front of some of the Northampton players and I hadn't even had a drink!
Re Ernst. For all of the last round he was sitting around 5th - so I was just willing him on for a place. It wasnt until he birdied the last that I actually believed he had any chance at all at winning it. Even then I thought he'd not make it if phil got in the playoff. When Lynn virtually hit his tee shot in the lake I started to celebrate (i'm sure you were the opposite). Ernst could be one for the future though - I like the look of his swing.
One thing I have to be careful of is wasting money whilst in running. When my pre tournament picks fall back or look unlikely to win/place I go chasing a bit which is never a good idea. Because I've been running good and had three winners (all backed pre tournament) it's ended up eating away at my profit.
Havent looked at the players yet myself but i'll prob post them up tomorrow. None of the top 20 really seem to be in any decent form. Mcilroy hit a lot of greens and fairways at wells fargo but at 16/1 still isnt great value - might be a good in running bet if he just has an average round 1. Scott's always consistent but again not good odds and no idea how the masters victory will affect him. I'll have more in depth look at people like Schwartzel, simpson, bradley, oosthuizen, johnson who are all reasonably good odds. I think bradley will be one of mine anyway
This week has a strange feel to it for me, so many of the big names have had opportunities to win this season, but for one reason or another haven't been able to get the job done, it feels like this is wide open and as Derek Ernst proved last week, anyone that tee's it up on day one can end the week lifting the trophy.
I've opted to go with the bookies offering ew first 6 this week and I've gone with the following picks:
Bo Van Pelt - 50/1, tied 6th last week was his best result of 2013, he's hasn't picked up any mental scars from being in the mix and failing in 2013, so I'm going with the 'logic' his game and frame of mind are in a good place! Consider he finished tied 7th last year and has two other top 10's in this event, Bo Van Pelt gives the impression he could be the dark horse in the field this week.
Henrik Stenson - 66/1, Not sure what went wrong last week when he missed the cut, but on further inspection he's played 3 times at Quail Hollow and missed the cut each time, last year he followed the Quail Hollow missed cut with a tied 15th at The Players, when his game and mind were not as strong as they are this year. Former winner of the event and has generally played well here despite coming to the event some years with indifferent form, around here 66/1 is very good value if Henrik is on his game this week.
Greame Mcdowell - 40/1, after Brett Rumfords exploits I feel I want to be on a recent winner, particularly as so many players this year seem to be lacking the consistency to win. When GMac won the 2010 US Open he did so after winning the Wales Open and then taking a week off, of course he won the Heritage two weeks ago and took last week off. On first inspection his Players results / form may not look that good, but further analysis reveals his career low round is a 65 and in 2011 he shot rounds in the 60's for the first 3 days, so can obviously play the course well and must fancy his own chances this week.
Tim Clark - 75/1, former winner here and after being out through injury has shown some good form this year.
Just read a couple of the previews for The Players Championship form the experts.
Ben Coley Sporting Life, opens with...
Although a par 72, Pete Dye's layout is relatively short at 7,215 yards and history suggests that, contrary to the logical assumption, taking advantage of the par-fives really isn't all that important.
Instead, it's those who can cope with the testing par-fours who tend to emerge on top and to do so a player will typically need to eliminate errors.
Rob Bolton PGA tour says.....
Scoring on the par 3s and 4s is firm but fair, so the mindset upon arrival should be to take advantage of the par 5s, which are gettable. Its fairways-hit percentage of 60.89 a year ago was the lowest since 2007, but it still managed to record its second-highest greens-in-regulation split (64.04 percent) of the last six years.
I always try to get my initial bets on before reading the experts columns as I find they can sometimes sway me in the wrong direction, that said I do look forward to reading their columns and get a small sense of achievement if they tip a player I have already backed.
I know Ben Coley and the guys at Sporting Life have a good strike rate, this week Ben Coley doesn't give a mention to any of my tips, let's hope he has a bad week!
Good Luck All!!!
He finished tied 12th on his debut in 2007 and hasn't made the cut since which is quite odd.
It look's like some years he has come into the event in good form and other not so hot, but each time he's missed the cut regardless.
He ticks all the stat boxes and at 50/1 really does look great value.
The only reason I haven't backed him is I decided there is reasonable doubt to oppose him as I'm not sure he will be fully over the way he fell away on the final day at The Masters, oh and the fact that I missed the 50/1 and he's now 40/1 might mean I am sulking slightly.
Luke Donald 18/1
Matt Kuchar 28/1
Sergio Garcia 30/1
£5 ew on each
Jimmy Walker - 125/1
Matt Jones - 250/1
Graham DeLaet - 250/1
Whilst Brandt Snedeker and Graeme Mcdowell both 40/1, jump off the stats pages as obvious names this week, Jimmy Walker and Graham DeLaet in particular are right up there with them.
A big ask to expect these players to win, so I also like the look of their value in alternative markets:
Top USA player - Jimmy Walker 66/1
Top Rest of World Player - Graham DeLaet - 33/1
Top Australian - Matt Jones - 16/1
ew first 4, 1/4 odds for Walker and DeLaet, ew first 3 1/5 odds for Jones