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Long way to go, but nice to have a place in the 'top 10 challange' locked up, so thanks Flash for the encouragement to enter the competition.
I must explain my absence from the board over the last 2 weeks, I travel overseas quite often with work and in some countries SkyPoker, SkyBet, SkyFantasyFootball etc. are not accessible online, you can't even open the forum pages and lurk!
So if I don't post for a while its not because I'm sulking after a losing weekend, honest!
I'm with Flash on my first selection here and am on Alex Noren at 35/1(I have a few accounts and shop around). Noren is a class act and looks to be approaching somewhere close to his best, which would be good enough to take this down.
Next I'm on a favourite of mine Danny Willett at 50/1, his course form / results have improved each time he has played this event and his overall game is on the ascendancy, this year he comes to the event with the added bonus of being in form. The organisers think he is good enough to put him in the same marquee group as Sergio and reigning champion Cabrera-Bello, luckily for me the bookies don't rate Willett to be as good as those two, 50/1 is excellent value.
Finally I've had a speculative dabble on Kristoffer Broberg at 1501/1, making his course debut in his rookie year, this guy won FOUR times on the challenge tour last year and already has a second place finish on the main tour, so signs are if he takes to a course he can have a big week. He's also big mates with Alex Noren, not a guarantee of a good showing by any means, but it can't hurt to have a mate of Noren's stature on tour.
At like the odds and I like the chances of Aaron Baddley at 60/1, when's he's on form he looks so comfortable, after a quite period he popped back on my radar a couple of weeks ago and seems to be playing well again, consider he is a former winner of this event and I think 60/1 is good ew value.
Next it has to be Graeme DeLaet at 150/1, I say next but DeLaet is my main bet for the week, in fact my biggest bet of the year so far.
DeLaet gave me some nice paydays at good prices in various markets towards the end of last season and it seems the bookies have still not learnt their lesson! After missing the cut in his first event of 2013 he then finished 65th and last week he was a very impressive under the radar 9th.
DeLaets strength has always been his power off the tee, however this year he is showing a 10% improvement on his GIR stats, I know it's early days, but he is ranked 14th on tour for GIR and is also top 20 for proximity to the hole, which are good indicators for the Phoenix Open.
I'd back DeLaet with confidence at 50/1, at 150/1 I wouldn't feel too bad about suggesting to anyone with two quid to spare a £1 ew on DeLaet this week could give them some fun for a few days at the very least!
Last I'm on Nicolas Colsaerts at 50/1, a rookie on the US Tour this year, I fancy if this event was in Europe Colsaerts would be half that price and for me The Phoenix Open with it's lively crowds and relatively easy scoring course is the type of course and event to suit Colsaerts perfectly.
Bo Van Pelt shot 59 in the pro-am on Wednesday, add that he is right up there when it comes to course form stats, Van pelt could be the man to beat this week.
The course obviously suits him perfectly, don't know if he's used all his good shots up in the pro-am, but he looks decent ew value at 35/1 outright and he's in the first group today where early starters can often find an advantage so 40/1 for first round leader also looks good ew value.
im not quite sure if its a good thing or a bad thing he went so low yesterday, if that makes sense?? obviously went great at the course which is always a plus but to pull it off 2 days in a row? ah well money down already so well see, come on the mighty Bo-ster!
1st round leader VAN PELT 40/1 £10 E/W
STEELE 80/1 £5E/W
Bit of a panful reality check in the fantasy competition for me.
I made a late change to my 10 players and put Kristoffer Broberg in, I knew it was a bit of a gamble, but last week I put the 100/1 winner in my team, so I could obviously do no wrong!
Broberg double bogeyed his last hole today, to miss the cut!
The player I agonised over, before 'dropping' him?
Thorbjorn Olesen, currently leading the tournament, ouch!
Any result but an Olesen win will do me this week.
I may even back him, to make sure he doesn't win, if you understand my logic.
In the meantime I took Chris Wood at 35/1 as he looks like he's playing with the belief that he could pull off back to back wins. hope that doesn't jinx it for Splashies.
He was never on my shortlist but he's being getting close to my 'medium list.
He's just played the treacherous 9th in par, so at -9 and with the easier back 9 to play, he could well be at the top of the leaderboard by the end of the day.
I've had a fiver ew at 40/1.
I also took Tommy Fleetwood at 50/1 earlier (after Wood and Woods winning last week having the name FleetWOOD can only be a good omen
Seriously Tommy Fleetwood was on my short list and I backed him a couple of times towards the end of last year, when he finished the season very well as one of the form players. Now do I have a saver on Lee WestWOOD at 6/1?
I would like to make it clear that in light of Lee Westwoods' double bogey on 17, I did not have a saver on him at 6/1!
Thanks for the Gary woodland 'tip', I have had £2 ew at 100/1!
That's the trouble with backing 150/1 shots, sometimes they play like 150/1 shots
As long as he's starting at those odds I'll be backing him again, though I promise not to shout about it so much.
At this rate I'll be asking for a price on Forest Gump!