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I had a tough battle on the bubble, there was a lot of agro play on our table and I survived an all in with my AJ shove preflop being called when I was short stack, thankfully got the double up and went out in 15th when I shoved a AQ suited against the blinds, sb instantly called with pocket aces and this time they held!
Golf from last night, brought another return from DeLeat, could anyone ever back Bubba with confidence again?
Very unlucky Neil and Flash with Ryan Moore and shame Steele also came up short.
I did a quick bit of research yesterday and agree its a weak field and George Coetzee should be the man this week, but after so many near misses I am not sure I can bring myself to back him this week at what will be short odds.
May I humbly point out that your research into golf form is much better than your research into flight times
Dubai - Johannesburg will be more like 8 hours ( 15 hours from England with a change of flight in Dubai) and for most of those travelling down I'm sure they'll be in business or first class, which on an Emirates flight will be no inconvenience at all for the 'names' that are moving from Dubai to SA.
Still historically this tournament does seem to favor the locals and I'm sure there'll be a few 'unknowns' up there this week.
Good Luck!
My early research was leading me towards players with high GIR stats as I think the players who are more accurate this week may have an advantage, but with best prices being snapped up, I've put the in depth research on hold and backed a couple of players I had already shortlisted this week:
Joburg Open
Danny Willett - 33/1, A favorite of mine and this year I'm trying to be selective when I back my favorites. Willett has never particularly played well or scored well on the Desert swing, so I've been encouraged that in 12 rounds, he managed to record the days lowest round on 2 occasions, once in Abu Dhabi and last week in Dubai.
His form in South Africa is much better, including a tied 9th in December last year and perhaps more significantly a tied 4th at this event in 2010.
Arguably comes to this years event in better form than previous years, looks good value at 33/1 and would possibly be half the price if he was South African.
Dawie Van Der Walt - 60/1, lightly raced two time winner on the tour, both victories coming on home soil in South Africa. He put in some good performances playing the Desert Swing for the first time, including tied 9th in Qatar, so he must be feeling good about his game. Back home this week at a venue where he has finished tied 3rd. I missed the initial 66/1 and I doubt very much 60/1 will be on offer for very long.
I've been very cagey and uncreative with my picks so far this season, I need to get back to mixing it up a bit and picking a few long shots.
Congrats Neil on Gallagher - im sure that was a bit of a sweat lol way out of my league.
I basically bubbled all my bets - Bradley just missed out on frl, Olesen might has well have missed out and moore with that annoying lip out ont he 18th.
This weeks tournaments really have me stumped. The favourites are very short and everyone else just seems like too much of a punt. Anyway I think I'm going with (waiting for any price boosts before I place them):
Joburg
Thomas Aiken 18/1 £2 ew
Soren Hansen 66/1 £1 ew
Keith Horne 125/1 £1 ew
James Kingston 125/1 £1 ew
Prob gonna FRL a few SA's in this one because seems to be good value lower down the field
AT&T
Gmac 28/1 £5 free bet
Every 66/1 £1 ew
Palmer 50/1 £1 ew
Don't feel confident about anyone in the both fields this week got a feeling two shock results on the cards but no idea who it might be lol
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Season Profit/Loss
Profit £86.94
Wins: 2
Places: 11
Settled bets: 38
Just looking at JD's spreadsheet for Joburg and it really does show what a strong hand the leading South Africans hold this week.
The first four in the betting, Charl Schwartzel, George Coetzee, Richard Sterne and Thomas Aitken have the course form locked up between them and it's difficult not to imagine 3 if not all 4 finishing top 5 this week.
Which leaves one place for Danny Willett or Dawie Van Der walt!
So I'm not convinced there's a lot of room for a surprise winner this week, then again I will join the challenge of a 'scatter gun' strategy and pick a few lively outsiders myself.
I'm thinking a few bets on top 20 finishes might be the way to go this week.
With the first round being played on two courses will there be any first round leader markets?
Edit: Just see there are first round leader markets for both courses, so maybe a few singles and doubles is the way to go this week.
http://www.skybet.com/golf/joburg-open/betType/end-of-round-leader
Bored - FRL's done
James Kingston, Round 1 Leader - East 50/1
Michiel Bothma Round 1 Leader - East 150/1
Estanislao Goya Round 1 Leader - East 66/1
Ulrich Van Den Berg Round 1 Leader - West 66/1
Keith Horne Round 1 Leader - West 50/1
Robert-Jan Derksen Round 1 Leader - West 50/1
22p (X18) ew doubles. Basically all stabs in the dark ☺
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Season Profit/Loss
Profit £70.98
Wins: 2
Places: 11
Settled bets: 38 Bets in play: 8
I have gone for
Aiken 20-1
and Elson 100-1 , he finished 2nd in 2012 and 4th 2011.
AT & T
Jimmy Walker 20-1
Aaron Baddeley 90-1
Well I'm sticking with my theory that high GIR stats will be important this week and added the European Tours Mr Radar, himself.... Magnus A Carlsson ew at 80/1.
Then not wanting to be outdone by fellow tipsters this week, I have joined in and picked a few of my own long shots:
Kristoffer Broberg - 200/1
Oliver Bekker - 200/1
James Morrison - 200/1
Merrick Bremner - 175/1
AT & T Pebble
I've not had time for any research into this event this week so it's lazy picks from me:
Graeme Mcdowell - 35/1, obviously won the US Open here and I've been a big fan for a few years now, I can't ignore him this week.
Matt Jones - 50/1, I know he's playing better than he's ever done, I know he has at least one top 10 here, achieved when he wasn't playing anywhere near as well as he is now, he's been priced at 3 figures for most events, but 50/1 still feels like good value this week.
James Driscoll - 125/1, I think 2014 could be his breakthrough year on tour, he has some decent course form and decent recent form, so why not this week for his first win.
Sean O'Hair - 200/1, normally plays very well here, after a loss of form and change of coach, I think he's on his way back, we will see if he is back or still on the way.
Sorry JD, you've had some memorable picks this seasons with some great results, but I think this one will stay in the memory banks for some time
Good Luck with your other picks!