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Olesen to beat Day
Larrazabal to beat Speith
Hanson to beat Johnson
Luiten to beat Moore
Looks like everyone drew a blank last week in the Matchplay and are now busy studying form, or something like that, so I'll kick the week off with a player that's overloading my ticks in the boxes!
Honda Classic - Billy Horschel - 66/1 ew first 6
The first event of the 2014 Florida swing, I know there are plenty of players based in Florida, including the majority of ever growing European Tour pro's who set up a base in the USA, but Horschel was born and bred in Florida and went to college in Florida, so he was there first!
Course form is better than first glance would suggest, last season he finished tied 41st, but that included a disastrous 3rd round 81, if he'd had simply gone around in par 70 on day 3 instead of the 81, he'd have finished tied 3rd last season, so I'm taking the view it was just one bad day on a course he can play well on, with plenty of home support.
Recent form is not too shabby, his best was tied 6th in the Tour of Champions in January. Last week he went out of the matchplay in round 2 to eventual winner Jason Day who needed 22 holes to beat Horschel. In the first round Horschel overwhelmed Jamie Donaldson 6 and 5 and was 5 under after 13 holes, so it would have been a big ask for Horshcel to go low again in round 2 when up against Jason Day.
Stats are good, ranked 12th for driving accuracy, 21st for GIR, 12th for strokes gained putting and 13th overall.
Looking through the results over the years and it looks like the course suits US open type players, with the likes of Mcllroy, Mcdowell, Ogilvy, Glover, Thompson, Woods, Els and Harrington all doing well here. In 2013 Horschel was 4th in the US Open.
Last but not least, comes the value box and at 66/1 ew first 6, Billy Horschel gets a massive tick from me and will be my main bet this week.
Good Luck Everyone!
I'd decided on Graeme Mcdowell, with consistent good course form, former US Open winner, good recent form and playing his 3rd event in succession and should be bang on his game.
Along with Charl Schwartzel, apparently lives (when he's in USA) 'across the road' from this venue. He was tied 9th last season, tied 5th 2 weeks ago and played very well almost every week he teed it up in the States last season. He was also leading the US Open after 3 rounds last year.
Problem is with Rory, Tiger, Phil, Scott, Garcia and Rose in the field, I was expecting them both to be priced in the 33/1 - 40/1 range, in this field I think the 20/1 - 22/1 on offer is pretty tight and most importantly doesn't give decent ew value.
Normally I'd go in search of a couple of players at bigger odds, but this week I'd made my mind up early on GMac and Schwartzel, but now I've seen the betting, I'm not sure what to do, or am I just being greedy?
In other news, I finally got my sky sports back on!! I got the full package 1/2 price for twelve months after a bit of haggling. So hopefully being able to watch more golf will help my picks. Watched a bit of fowler over the weekend and his new swing looks pretty good - a lot less adjustments needed in the new one so it should hold up better under pressure and be more consistent over the course of an event.
Should get my sheets done tomorrow but without looking at course form I think fowler will be one of my picks and I do like the sound of Horschel.
Fischart and van zyl Tshwane
and Fowler and Bradley Honda
and ew doubles of course
Honda Classic
Rickie Fowler 33/1 £2.5 ew (£5 free bet)
As said above really like the swing changes he's made and finished t13 and t7 here in last two years. Should gain confidence from his performance at the weekend.
Zach Johnson 25/1 £2 ew
Had money on Zach last week at the match play and he slumped to a first round exit lol but I was told after the event his record at that event is atrocious (good pick JD). So excluding last weeks results in his last 14 starts he's had 3 wins, 7 top 5's and 11 top 10's so i'm hoping last week was just a blip.
Billy Horschel 50/1 £1 ew
just nicked Darts tip
Tschwane Open
Again feel like euro tour is a bit of a punt this week apart from Coetzee and Aiken but don't see any value in their odds. So just gone with my gut lol
Tommy Fleetwood 40/1
Matthew Baldwin 66/1
Rober Rock 80/1
All £1 ew.
-----------------
Season Profit/Loss
Profit £47.08
Wins: 3
Places: 10
Settled bets: 62
Tshwane Open
Danny Willett - 25/1, Ok, no effort went into the research for my first pick, on Monday I wanted to put someone in a double with Billy Horshcel, before the best odds were snapped up. I remain a big fan of Danny Willett and he was 5th here last year, tends to play well when rested and is a big fish in a dodgy pond this week.
Morten Orum Madsen - 33/1, tied 8th in this event last year, finished tied 6th last week on a Sunshine Tour event, won the South African Open a couple of months ago, so obviously very comfortable here. Seems to be playing consistently well and looks to offer some real value amongst those at the head of the betting.
Jean Hugo - 66/1, former tour player who appears to be playing exclusively in South Africa now, his results this season have been his best for some years backed up by a tie for 2nd last week. Tied 21st last season so has decent course experience in the bank and also has the length off the tee which will help this week.
Gaganjeet Bhullar - 125/1, power hitter who's game should suit this course. He finished 10th in Abu Dhabi and 22nd in Qatar, in fields much stronger than this week. He also has a tied 18th finish in a WGC on his cv. Plays a lot of his golf on the Asian Tour, where he finished 5th on their OOM last season. He also boasts 5 wins on the Asian Tour and knowing how to win is an important experience no matter what event you are playing in. 125/1 looks tasty.
Honda Classic
Forced to do extra homework thanks to the poor value odds the bookies are offering on Gmac and Schwartzel, I hope I will get my revenge with the following picks:
Billy Horschel - 66/1, for reasons mentioned in Mondays post and after more in depth analysis, I remain bullish about Billy!
Hideki Matsuyama - 40/1, very impressive player, who I imagine will find conditions to his liking this week and certainly offers good value amongst those near the front of the betting.
Louis Oosthuizen - 66/1,I wanted to back his mate and neighbor Charl Schwartzel, but at 3 times the price Louis looks overpriced. After last seasons injuries, he hasn't done that much wrong this season. He's won in South Africa, he was knocked out of the Matchplay at the QF stage by the eventual winner Jason Day. He lives 'across the road' from this weeks venue, so must have plenty of course knowledge, his record is not great here, but he's had to withdraw twice and despite not playing the event wen fully fit, he's still registered a couple of sub par rounds, on a course where par means a good round. Also has a tied 9th in the US Open. So plenty going for him and is there really that greater difference between the two players, that Schwartzel should be 22/1 and Oosthuizen 66/1?
Padraig Harrington - 100/1 (without Woods and Rory), a little speculative but he's a former winner of this event and he tends to produce his best in the more challenging events. I'd like to think he's still got a win or two left in him and in the past I've tended to catch Padraig at the right time, so I'm hoping this week could be one of those good weeks.
Louis' withdrawn for a third time from this tournament.
So I get to add the local boy with the growing reputation and game, Brooks Koepka at 100/1.
Checked the leaderboard earlier on and Danny Willett had got off to a nice start and was -1 tied 11th.
Just checked again and had to keep scrolling down the leaderboard to find Danny Willett and there he is at the bottom.....retired!
So that's two players pulled out injured for me this week and as Willett started I am sure I won't be getting my money back for a non runner!
Worse still Willett was doubled with my main pick Billy Horschel this week.
Not happy and I probably should of taken time out but I've now added.....
Alejandro Canizares - 40/1, ew single and double with Horschel. I'm going with the theory that there may well be design similarities between this Ernie Els designed course and the modified Wentworth course where Canizares played so well last season. He was also 6th in the South African Open and recently 5th in Qatar.
I've also added Michael Hoey at 12/1 in a win double with Horschel.
I don't like to moan or criticize, especially when it's something new, as I've learnt that opinions (well mine anyway) can change.
However, I've just spent 5 minutes trying to get to grips with the new PGA leaderboard........UGH!!!
Does anyone know if shot tracker is still available?
Too much time on my hands this morning, which is not usually a good thing, trolling through my bet history, to see if there was any chance I'd get a refund on Danny Willett and realize I didn't declare my getting uncomfortably regular Matt bet....
Matthew Baldwin - 66/1
Matt Jones - 80/1
ew singles and an ew double
That's me done for the day, unless anyone else goes sick.
I've found Shot Tracker
Have you backed anyone this week or are you sticking with the new strategy?
I have to say there doesn't appear to be anything else positive to say about him, I can't even say he is one of the many Florida residents who grew up here or plays here regularly, or will be used to these greens, he comes from the other side of America!
Anyway I feel bad about you following my Billy Horschel tip this week, I don't know what wrong with Billy, he started so well and was -2 after 3, perhaps he was affected by Rory's high level performance.
SkyBet still seem to think Horschel has a better chance than Ernst (150/1 - 200/1), but I feel responsible for doing some of your hard earned cash in, so fair's fair, I've had a small ew wager on Derek Ernst at 200/1.
Though honestly, I think the only sane reason you could back him would be if he was one of your biggest wins in the past