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Completed some very decent poker highs and achievements for Joesman1/Neil Strike in 2014.
Best of luck in life, poker and golfing picks to everyone on the golfing forum for 2015.
Right then here we go, even though both tours started the 2015 season last year, it feels like a new year to me.
I spent a bit of time going over last years results and am going to make a concerted effort, not to always ignore the more obvious, in search of 'better value'.
I might not see this through, but for the time being I've decided to keep tally of my losses or what's that other word beginning with P?
It's difficult to have too much confidence for the first events of the year, so it's a tentative, speculative start.
Hyundai Tour Championship
Jason Day - 15/2, 1 point win, normally his price would mean I skip right past him, but in a shortened field of 34, I suppose the bookies can be excused.
I like the fact that he didn't go to Australia in December and with Cameron Tringale he won the one event he did play, which was the Franklin Shoot Out.
Hunter Mahan - 25/1, 0.5 points ew, he played this event 3 times, with two nowhere and a 5th place. Clearly, if on his game he can win this and 25/1 looks a little big.
Brendon Todd - 33/1, 0.5 points ew, I couldn't make my mind up between Mahan and Todd, so with low stakes this week, I justified to myself that I could back both.
First time here, but he's played the Sony Open in Hawaii twice and came away with a 13th and 20th place finish, he also has good results at Pebble Beach and a win in Texas. All venues where the wind can be a factor as it can be this week.
Nick Taylor - 200/1, 0.5 points ew, Tour rookie who got his first win in only his 4th event on tour and was very impressive in doing so. Former amateur world no. 1 and scored the lowest round ever (65) by an amateur in a major at the US Open in 2009.
Already delivered big things and promises much more, he deserves to be at the Tour Championship and 200/1 is just a little too disrespectful and too tempting to ignore.
Total PGA Tour Outlay - 4.00 points
The South African Open
Difficult to get too excited about anyone here, the bookies have got hold of the names and it looks to be a field full of if, whens and maybes.
JBE Kruger - 22/1, 0.5 points ew, I almost gave my top spot to Branden Grace, but old habits die hard and I couldn't persuade myself to back two favorites in a week.
So last years runner up, who also has good recent form, JBE Kruger gets my vote at a still not so wonderful 22/1.
Edoardo Molinari - 35/1, 0.5 points ew, on his way back from injury and after changing coach and swing, new Edoardo came close to a win on a number of occasions last season.
Not on the same course, but he does have a tied 4th in the South African Open and local form is never a bad thing.
Anders Hansen - 70/1, 0.5 points ew, after having considerable success in South Africa including winning the Sunshine Tour Order of Merit in 2009, Anders Hansen has seemed to pretty much ignore South Africa since 2010. I'm not sure why, maybe it was a case of 'been there done that'.
Well he's back on a happy hunting ground this week and at 70/1 I'm hoping the good memories will convert to a good week on the course.
Johan Edfors 250/1, 0.5 points ew, you pays your money you takes your chances with Johan Edfors.
I imagine Johan Edfors is still like a bear with a sore body part. After winning a Challenge Tour Event in October, he talked about how relieved he was to get back onto the main tour, as it looked like that win would be enough to see him finish top 15 in the Challenge Tour Order of Merit. Unfortunately he earned less than 4,000 Euros in the last 4 events and dropped outside the top 15 after the final event.
He did play the Alfred Dunhill before Christmas and was going along very nicely on 4 under, two shots off the lead after 14 holes of his first round, he then proceeded to quadruple bogey the 15th and finish with a triple bogey on the last for good measure. He then came back the next day to shoot an 81 and finish 153rd!
In 2006 Johan Edfors won 3 times on tour, it was only 3 years ago that he finished 19th in the US Open, he clearly has the game to compete, if not always the temperament, at 250/1 I'll give him a chance this week.
European Tour Outlay - 4.0 Points
Tournament Outright
Oh my I was travelling today, so completely missed the last day of the South African Open, sounds like there was a massive wreck with multiple men down!
Deepest commiserations to all those that suffered losses and here's me, thinking this week was a low key start to the year.
The Desert Swing starts next week, looks a good quality field with plenty of past course form and 'Desert' form to go on.
I reckon we'll find the winner of this one.
In the meantime good luck with Jimmy Walker and Zach Johnson, I hope they finish in a place behind Brendon Todd
£2
However for my running profit/loss balance I am going to stick to just recording my pre-event picks.
I text my Abhu Dhabi picks to Neil last night and he replied 'Lol old habits....', which is exactly what I've been aiming to avoid, but having slept on it I'm still happy with my logic and reasons and anyway Neil can be a bit of a ****
Abu Dhabi
I expect another big week from Danny Willett, but at 28/1 there's no great value there, though with my R2D investment I'll still be looking out for him.
Clearly market leaders, Mcllroy, Kaymer, Stenson and Rose are going to be tough to beat, but recent results here have seen big priced winners, so there is hope.
First two picks are not particularly regulars for me:
Thorbjorn Olesen - 3 points ew 40/1 - Back in December, my mind was made up to back Olesen starting with the Desert Swing.
He won in Australia at the end of October, he finished 6th in the WGC in November and a not too shabby 12th in Dubai at the end of November.
He's a proven 'Desert Specialist' with course form here, a big week is expected.
Brendan Grace - 2 points ew 45/1 - After playing poorly for much of 2014, his game results picked up towards the end of the season. He then went a massive step further by winning the second event of the 20114/15 season.
A 15th place finish in South Africa last week was not to shabby for his first outing in 2015 and he has a 5th place finish in the record books here to add to the feel good factor.
Now for 2 old habits......
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 1.5 points ew 50/1 - The good points are that Rafa is absolutely a 'Desert Specialist' and he is on record as saying he's really comfortable on these courses. He's won in Dubai and he has good course form here.
On past research I recall that Cabrera-Bello and Jamie Donaldosn seem to play well on similar courses and events, 2012 winner in Abu Dhabi was Jamie Donaldon.
Cabrera-Bello finished off last season with a 9th place finish in Dubai, which after leading or being top 5 for most (69 holes) of the tournament, was probably the worst he could have finished, the positive is a top 10 finish is another good result in the desert, the downside is the 'blowup' was another tournament where Rafa showed a flaw in the mental side of his game.
Matthew Baldwin - 1 point ew 300/1 - yes the 300/1 drew me him, but I'd argue there's enough to suggest he is not without chance this week.
Last year Baldwin lead (tied with Cabrera-Bello) this event after day 1, before finishing a not too bad 19th. He's a player on 'the up' and that should translate to better game and more experience than last year.
Last but not least, golfers have their own social circles on tour, two of the players Matthew Baldwin is familiar with are last weeks winner Andy Sullivan and R2D leader Danny Willett, seeing the players you connect with succeed, can bring positives to the mental side of the game, the if he can do it, so I can I mentality.
European Tour Starting Balance = -4 points
Abhu Dhabi Investment = 15 points
Balance carried Forward = -19 points
Sony Open
Mark Leishman - 2points ew 40/1, has very good course form and has been threatening a second win on tour for a while now.
I don't think I've ever backed him before and I see Flash is also on this week, so now would be the time to get the second win.
Brendon Todd - 2 points ew 35/1, has decent form here, seems to play his best in these type of events.
Whenever I saw him last year, he looked impressive, I fancy it won't be long before he wins again, conditions should suit.
Kevin Na - 1.5 points ew 50/1, can be difficult to catch at the right time, seems to flit randomly in no particular order or sense, between golfing wilderness, top class golf and golfing mediocrity.
He does seem to have some type of consistency going here though, with three top 10's in recent years, 50/1could look a steel come Sunday.
Matt Jones - 1 point ew 150/1, a player that I know both JD and myself have shown a lot of faith in.
After finally getting his breakthrough win in April last year, he did next to nothing of note on the golf course for the rest of the year. His tied 11th last week was hopefully a significant sign of a return to form.
During his rookie and maiden years, this was a course where Matt Jones would often turn in one of his best performances of the season, so he obviously feels comfortable here.
PGA Tour Starting Balance = -4 points
Sony Open Investment = 13 points
Balance carried Forward = -17 points