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Get in the Hole! 2017 Season!

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  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Humana Challenge + Qatar Masters):
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Humana Challenge + Qatar Masters) : Well at least Grace has "come" first ;) Vwp Mr flush!!
    Posted by jdsallstar
    He was always going to beat me once I'd put that post up. Nice one Charles 
  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Sony Open + Abu Dhabi):
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Sony Open + Abu Dhabi) : I can only presume Neil has not seen this, or I can assure you he would have been straight in to have another dig at me and to tell you that the fact that I've given up on Grace is a good thing. I've not given up on him as such, I reluctantly passed over him, in search of better ew value elsewhere, which is the very thing I set out not to do this year (ignore the obvious chances of those you fancy irrespective of their price). I should have backed Olesen and Grace, I fancy them both, but swerved them for bigger priced players. Actually Flash I like all your picks this week, hope your confidence is rewarded (a little bit).
    Posted by TheDart
    You see Flash, Grace was nailed on to win this week, well done.

    The fact that you questioned my apparent desertion of Grace and my confession that I did fancy him but had swerved him for the above reasons, did grate away at me, so I did go back and a have a smallish wager on him as a saver.

    So thanks for reducing the agonizing stomach churning pains I would be having right now, though I'm still kicking myself for not having a proper bet on him like I did last week.
  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Sony Open + Abu Dhabi):
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Sony Open + Abu Dhabi) : You see Flash, Grace was nailed on to win this week, well done. The fact that you questioned my apparent desertion of Grace and my confession that I did fancy him but had swerved him for the above reasons, did grate away at me, so I did go back and a have a smallish wager on him as a saver. So thanks for reducing the agonizing stomach churning pains I would be having right now, though I'm still kicking myself for not having a proper bet on him like I did last week.
    Posted by TheDart
    Ha ha! Glad to hear it!

    Now after 2 amazing rounds last night from Hoffman and Palmer, is the double on? GOGOGOGO!
  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Sony Open + Abu Dhabi):
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Sony Open + Abu Dhabi) : Ha ha! Glad to hear it! Now after 2 amazing rounds last night from Hoffman and Palmer, is the double on? GOGOGOGO!
    Posted by FlashFlush

    Palmer 1 shot off the lead - nice wee sweat tonight! Gl

  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Humana Challenge + Qatar Masters):
    My picks: Qatar Stephen Gallacher 30/1 (without rose, stenson and garcia)  Seems to play well in this neck of the woods with 2 wins in the region in last two years. His finish last year here was spoilt by an ugly 75 in r3 otherwise could have been in the mix. Weisberger 30/1 (without rose, stenson and garcia) always pretty consistent and when you remove the three big names in the field 30/1 seems like a pretty solid price to me. Gallacher and Noren also in with small FRL bets. Humana Billy Horschel 40/1 Was between haas and horschel for this pick and went for horschel - already kind of regretting it despite the bigger price. Zach Johnson 28/1 Some decent finishes recently and decent record. Just got a feeling he's gonna go close again in coming weeks. FRL fun one Casey, Bohn, Haas, Bradley, Jones and Simpson all in ew trebles.
    Posted by jdsallstar
    sigh
  • edited January 2015
    Bloody Haas!! Double kick in the nuts for me last night. Palmer triple bogying when tied for the lead and Hoffman having a great round but still falling 1 shot clear.

    Still a good week and I'm also in the top 100 for the Fantasy European tour. :-)
  • edited January 2015
    Well i said last week I felt confident with my bets. This week I feel even more confident with my European Tour picks. I've spent most of the morning going through all the players. Seems really tough to find a player with both current form and course form while avoiding the top 3 or 4 in the market.

    Nicolas Colsaerts - 55/1 - My main tip this week. Looks to be finding his feel again. Closed out his week in Qatar with a 67 and 68 to finish T13. He hasn't played here since 2012 because of his session in America, but he finished T9 then. 

    Although it says this course doesn't play as long as it says on the card, it's still a long course! He seems to have sacrificed length for accuracy this year, so if the course isn't playing full length that should suit him perfectly as he will still be out driving most people anyway.

    Bernd Weisberger - 33/1 - I know this is someone Neil backs a lot. I've kind of never really bought into him and thought sooner or later he will drop back like all the other players that come up with a few good rounds that gets people talking. However, this guy seems to be someone who is staying and I'm forced to take more notice of him. With a 3rd and T6 already in his 2 events this year, combined with his T9 here last year I think he is only 33/1 because of Rory pushing everyone elses prices up. One of very few with both course and current form. I expect to see Neil has his house on him.

    Louis Oostuizen - 33/1 - Yes, yes, I'm backing Louis again! Hopefully coming back from what ever injury he has decided to pick up this time. 2nd last time out just before Christmas. He hasn't played here for quite a while, but he has had some good finishes when he does play. Not much more I can add, but if he is back to his old self this week he will get very close.
  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Humana Challenge + Qatar Masters):
    Bloody Haas!! Double kick in the nuts for me last night. Palmer triple bogying when tied for the lead and Hoffman having a great round but still falling 1 shot clear. Still a good week and I'm also in the top 100 for the Fantasy European tour. :-)
    Posted by FlashFlush
    Top 71 none the less!

    Nice work Flash, I'm in the top 6,000, so trailing a little, but it's early days, sighhhh
  • edited January 2015
    Well as Flash rides the highs of some great picks and a profit, I'm left down in the golf tipsters gutter, feeling sorry for myself.

    I was also confident of my picks last week and this seemed to be enforced by the two online tipsters I check out (Sportinglife and GolfBetting System), who between the two of them put up all 4 of my picks in europe, priced between 50/1 and 100/1 and one of my 40/1 picks in the USA.

    I exclude Matthew Baldwin from that list as at 300/1 he was never going to get any attention, though for much of the tournament he was actually threatening to generate a profit for me.

    I always like to go with my own fancies, before reading the pro's picks, but I have to say that I seem to have developed an uncanny loss making knack of coming up with the same picks as the pro's.

    Perhaps I've built up a memory bank and ability to read the form like most people, but am focusing too much on the hard facts.

    It's hard not to see Rory winning this week, I'd even talked it through with Neil and was going to come over to the dark side and lump on the favorite, but I've already missed the best price and at 7/2 I'm not sure I can pull the trigger.

  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Humana Challenge + Qatar Masters):
    Well i said last week I felt confident with my bets. This week I feel even more confident with my European Tour picks. I've spent most of the morning going through all the players. Seems really tough to find a player with both current form and course form while avoiding the top 3 or 4 in the market. Nicolas Colsaerts - 55/1 - My main tip this week. Looks to be finding his feel again. Closed out his week in Qatar with a 67 and 68 to finish T13. He hasn't played here since 2012 because of his session in America, but he finished T9 then.  Although it says this course doesn't play as long as it says on the card, it's still a long course! He seems to have sacrificed length for accuracy this year, so if the course isn't playing full length that should suit him perfectly as he will still be out driving most people anyway. Bernd Weisberger - 33/1 - I know this is someone Neil backs a lot. I've kind of never really bought into him and thought sooner or later he will drop back like all the other players that come up with a few good rounds that gets people talking. However, this guy seems to be someone who is staying and I'm forced to take more notice of him. With a 3rd and T6 already in his 2 events this year, combined with his T9 here last year I think he is only 33/1 because of Rory pushing everyone elses prices up. One of very few with both course and current form. I expect to see Neil has his house on him. Louis Oostuizen - 33/1 - Yes, yes, I'm backing Louis again! Hopefully coming back from what ever injury he has decided to pick up this time. 2nd last time out just before Christmas. He hasn't played here for quite a while, but he has had some good finishes when he does play. Not much more I can add, but if he is back to his old self this week he will get very close.
    Posted by FlashFlush

    Nope I'm not Charles. I'll explain why below. Well done again on last week, and to everyone else who scored. 


  • edited January 2015
    Right to this week. Now I could (like some of you have no doubt have done already) spend hours looking for an edge/angle to get those pesky bookies beat. A good priced outsider in form, maybe betting without Rory, or even Rory and Stenson. 

    But I'm not. Let's face it, if Rory had had his putting boots on the other week, we wouldn't have been amazed by Kaymers collapse. Instead we'd have been eulogising over another Rory masterclass. He plays this course better, he'll have spent hours on his putting, as his long and short game couldn't possibly be improved. But we're been asked to take 4/1, and is that value u ask?? 

    Well ok here are the facts. In two months time at Augusta, at a course he's YET to win at, in a field that will contain Rose, Scott, multiple champions Bubba, Phil and Tiger. Not forgetting Spieth, Reed, and all the other up and coming Yanks, he's a MASSIVE 9/2!!!! - I think that says it all. 4/1 to win is very much VALUE. 

    One bet this week, Rory to win 4/1, and 1/2 size bet again on Rory ew 4/1 - just in case someone has a stellar week, so I'll get 2/3's of my total stake back. 

    Darty, I'll see u at the payout desk Sunday afternoon. 
  • edited January 2015
    You make a fair point on Rory. What I would say though, when I watched him it wasn't his putting that was letting him down, it was his short irons from 100-120 yards. Instead of being inside 10ft he was outside 25ft most of the time. So it's not just 1 part of his game that has been off...

    Phoenix Open

    Brendon Steele - 50/1

    Scott Piercy - 50/1
  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Humana Challenge + Qatar Masters):

    Gone for proven course and distance runners for Qatar...

    Garcia..£25ew @7-1
    Grace..£10ew  @22-1
    Coetzee.£10ew @50-1
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Humana Challenge + Qatar Masters) : Good Luck Spanky, you should get a decent run for your money with those selections.
    Posted by TheDart
    You see I was bang on the money there wasn't I?

    I guess some credit should also go to Spanky for the picks :)


    Who are you on this week Spanky?

  • edited January 2015

    Dubai Classic

    I can't argue with Neil and his opinion of Rory this week, in fact I agree with him, but just like my teenage son, who doesn't always listen to my good advice, I've gone and done my own thing.

    There's still time for me to add Rory, but for now I've kept it simple and just gone for 3 players who I picked out during the Qatar Masters;


    Byeung Hun An,  1 point ew 80/1: Three of the last 4 tournaments he has played have been in this region, he finished 4th in Dubai at the Challenge Tour finale, 12th in Abu Dhabi and 5th last week in Qatar.

    Looked very impressive last week and from what I saw if a few more putts had dropped instead of a host of near misses, he would have won.

    A bit more luck on the greens this week and he might just get that first win on tour.


    Gregory Bourdy, 1 point ew 125/1: played some high quality golf last week in finishing 5th, yet surprisingly for putts per GIR was ranked a lowly 64th of 74 players.

    Bourdy was ranked 29th on tour for putting last year and I've always thought of him as a player you can trust with a putter in his hand.

    Going with the theory that some players struggle to adapt to the greens at Qatar, going with the fact that tee to green last week he was top 4 and top 6, going with the theory he has played the Desert Swing well and is a 4 time winner on tour who is due his next win.

    Benjamin Hebert 1 point ew 150/1: I highlighted him as a player to look out for this year and after last weeks 10th place finish to follow up his win at the Challenge Tour finale in Dubai its clear he enjoys the conditions of the desert Swing.

    I was going to say he looks great value for this week and maybe he is, but if he doesn't finish top 5, then I'll admit Rory was better value.

    European Tour Starting Balance = -31 points
    Qatar Investment = 6 points
    Balance Carried Forward = -37 points

  • edited January 2015
    N1 Flash _ I to avoided Grace after backing him after the Scottish Open last year and for the Open as he was playing well then

    I do get my £5 back on Kuchar as a free bet for finishing 2nd or 3rd - Just  dissapointed he didn,t win . Finished +£15 over the week as i layed a tiny bit of Kooch

    Got a £10 Freebet for this week. I,ll get a tip from someone above. Its for the Pheonix Open

    EDIT - Nahhh - Sticking with Kooch - Couldn,t live with myself and i,d like to see him win anyway

    MarketSelectionPriceHcp
    Outright - Waste Management Phoenix Open
    Tournament Outright
    Kuchar, Matt18/1 
    Total stake£ 10.00
    Estimated return£ 180.00
    Full stake£ 10.00
    Full estimated return£ 180.00
  • edited January 2015
    Like everyone else its hard not to see rory going close and was tempted to go for the without rory market but decided the odds drop wasnt worth it.

    Sticking with a few of my picks from last week because they showed some good potential.

    Dubai Desert

    Wiesberger 28/1 - Just see this guy putting in 4 solid rounds and being up there.

    Coetzee 50/1 - reasonably obvious pick for the desert swing. 

    FRL
    Cabrera bello and Grillo both 40/1

    Nearly picked Noren in both markets but waiting for the big names to clear off back to the states.

    Phoenix

    Horschel 50/1 - A nasty 9 in his final round last week masked 4 decent rounds.

    Reed 28/1 - Arguably in better form than all of those above him in the odds so looked decent value to me.

    FRL
    odds not up yet but will be 2 from Palmer, Bradly, Perez, Moore

    GL all
  • edited January 2015
    Phoenix Open

    Hideki Matsuyama, 1.5points ew 33/1,
    He had a great chance to win this event last year, but I remember thinking at the time, that the realization that the win was on got to him a little over the closing holes.

    A few months later he did get his first win and has continued to prove himself to be a top class player, if he gets into contention again this Sunday, the added experience should help see him over the line.

    Gary Woodland, 1.5 points ew 33/1, In a field of Watson, Speith, Kuchar, Fowler, Woods, Mickleson, Reed and Haas, Gary Woodland feels like a bit of a 'dark horse' this week and I really like his chances.

    His first outing of 2015 was 2 weeks ago at The Sony Open, an event where he was yet to make the cut, this time round he finished 3rd. Though it was 10 shots behind winner Jimmy Walker, that result was eye catching from Woodland.

    In 2011 he finished 5th here, shooting 4 rounds in the 60's. Two time winner on tour, wins coming in 2011 and 2013, timing is right for a win in 2015.

    Nick Watney, 1 point ew 70/1, former world top 10 player, struggled for much of the last 12-18 months, in fact I believe last year was his worst year on tour.

    He took a longer than usual winter break (10 weeks) and returned last week with a 14th place finish, which was his best result for some time, most encouraging was his second round where he took just 20 putts, as its the putting and short game rather than tee to green that deteriorated last season.

    He has course form here, so if he can build on last weeks first outing and return to form, Nick Watney could make the 70/1 on offer look like a gift.



    PGA TOUR STARTING BALANCE = -30 Points
    Humana Challenge Investment = -8 Points
    Balance Carried Forwards = -38 Points
  • edited January 2015
    Bit boring having all my eggs in Rory's basket. So I've backed Grillo ew in the without market @ 42/1 with Betvictor. Also done a straight win double Rory 3/1 (now) and Blubba (he owes me for throwing this event away last year) 16/1 = 68/1

    Gl all

    Edit:- Maybe throwing more money away. But can't resist the 14/1 on Rory going wire to wire. Key stat:- He's led after round 1 here in 4 out of his last 5 starts. Tomoz he gets the early start on the easier back nine. I'm hoping to see him 3 under as he wanders up the Par 5 18th, as the live action starts. 
  • edited January 2015
    So frls for Phoenix are:

    Bradley 50/1 
    Perez 100/1
    and
    Bohn 100/1

    Couldn't decide between bohn and Perez so went for both ;)
  • edited January 2015
    Just spotted an offer with Coral  (Similar as what Betred have been doing)

    Place a £10 pre match single and get a free bet of £10 in play so gone mccloroy

    Rory Mcilroy10/3Outright - Win Only - 29/01/2015
    Stake £10.00
    Estimated Return:£43.33

    Still got £10 on Kooch for the Phoenix Open
  • edited January 2015
    After coatzee had an early collapse went with a backup bet on noren at 40/1.
  • edited January 2015

    Belated picks for the Desert Classic....

    Grace...normally plays well in spells (how wrong can I be) 25/1

    Willett..top 50 in World now, time to perform in some big name events 40/1

    Rock..too good to stay in doldrums forever, has gone well on this course before 150/1


    Got em on before the off, wish I hadn't made it in Graces case......

    Good luck everybody
  • edited February 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Humana Challenge + Qatar Masters):
    Right to this week. Now I could (like some of you have no doubt have done already) spend hours looking for an edge/angle to get those pesky bookies beat. A good priced outsider in form, maybe betting without Rory, or even Rory and Stenson.  But I'm not. Let's face it, if Rory had had his putting boots on the other week, we wouldn't have been amazed by Kaymers collapse. Instead we'd have been eulogising over another Rory masterclass. He plays this course better, he'll have spent hours on his putting, as his long and short game couldn't possibly be improved. But we're been asked to take 4/1, and is that value u ask??  Well ok here are the facts. In two months time at Augusta, at a course he's YET to win at, in a field that will contain Rose, Scott, multiple champions Bubba, Phil and Tiger. Not forgetting Spieth, Reed, and all the other up and coming Yanks, he's a MASSIVE 9/2!!!! - I think that says it all. 4/1 to win is very much VALUE.  One bet this week, Rory to win 4/1, and 1/2 size bet again on Rory ew 4/1 - just in case someone has a stellar week, so I'll get 2/3's of my total stake back.  Darty, I'll see u at the payout desk Sunday afternoon. 
    Posted by joesman1

    Im looking hard, is that u I see in the distance??

  • edited February 2015
    Good work chaps. I guess sometimes it's easy to overlook the obvious picks.
  • edited February 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Phoenix Open + Dubai Classic):
    Bit boring having all my eggs in Rory's basket. So I've backed Grillo ew in the without market @ 42/1 with Betvictor. Also done a straight win double Rory 3/1 (now) and Blubba (he owes me for throwing this event away last year) 16/1 = 68/1 Gl all Edit:- Maybe throwing more money away. But can't resist the 14/1 on Rory going wire to wire. Key stat:- He's led after round 1 here in 4 out of his last 5 starts. Tomoz he gets the early start on the easier back nine. I'm hoping to see him 3 under as he wanders up the Par 5 18th, as the live action starts. 
    Posted by joesman1
    So it wasn't to be my one time double. Destined never to happen.
  • edited February 2015
    In early this week to take the bits of Grillo @ 40/1 ew.... No doubt I'll follow it up with some others.

    Put an ew Lucky 15 on for the majors also today:-

    Spieth:- The Masters 16/1
    Victor:- The Open 66/1
    J Walker:- US Open 50/1
    DJ:- USPGA 33/1

    And topped up the bet on Victor for The Open, still @ 66/1- Ill join Terry on his boat if they all come in.

    Update:- The problem of playing poker in a foreign country is that u have too much time on your hands.

    Farmers Weekly  in the USA (boringly I know, but 1st tournie this year last week, and started to get his eye in during the final round, and showed back end of last year that he's the only player who can match Rory) Spieth 16/1 for a bit (stingy bookies) more @ 14/1 ew. Also ew double with Grillo 14/1 @ 33/1. (See below for reasoning why 16/-14/1 big value this week ala Rory last week)

    Finally, also backed Spieth ew @ 16/1 for The Masters. I fully believe by tee off time he'll be a clear 2nd fav 10-12/1 ish. 
  • edited February 2015
    Final pick this week. After his good buddy won in the USA, I think this is the perfect time to back this guy for the 1st time, Uilhlein ew @ 50/1, and an ew double with Speith.

    I've left Weisberger alone even though he's got good course form and he plays well in Asia. 12-10/1 I feel is too tight, and this will be his 4th playing week on the trot. Westwood could have been a win only bet. He destroyed the field in this last year. But he's never an ew bet at that price. Unlike Rory last week who was guaranteed to place, so I was nearly getting my money back if someone had the week of his life. With Westwood at 7/1, if he came 2-5th, I'd be getting paid at odds of approx 4/9 on my money. Yuk!! No thanks, he's no 4/9 shot to place.

    That's me done for this week on the golf betting.
  • edited February 2015
    Malaysia

    Alvaro Quiros - 66/1
    Danny Willet - 16/1
    M-A Jimenez - 40/1

    Farmers

    Justin Thomas - 35/1
    K.J Choi - 66/1
    Charley Hoffman 45/1


    Not sure what's going on with Dubuisson. First he is in, then out now possibly back in again. Sky have him at 22/1 with all other bookies 14/1 and 16/1 so I've had a large bet on him as I expect if he says he is deffo playing those odds will come down. If he doesn't, well i get a refund anyway.
  • edited February 2015
    In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2015 Season! (Farmers Open + Malaysian Open):
    Malaysia Alvaro Quiros - 66/1 Danny Willet - 16/1 M-A Jimenez - 40/1 Farmers Justin Thomas - 35/1 K.J Choi - 66/1 Charley Hoffman 45/1 Not sure what's going on with Dubuisson. First he is in, then out now possibly back in again. Sky have him at 22/1 with all other bookies 14/1 and 16/1 so I've had a large bet on him as I expect if he says he is deffo playing those odds will come down. If he doesn't, well i get a refund anyway.
    Posted by FlashFlush

    I'll be making a complaint if he does play Charles. Only LADBROKES were offering odds on him when I placed all my bets. So as far as I'm concerned, he's a NON RUNNER. 

    Edit:- and now I see he has a Tee Time. 

    Gl
  • edited February 2015
    On my travels at the moment, so havent overdone the research, which may well be a good thing:

    Malaysian Open

    Gregory Bourdy - 1.5 point ew 33/1, played some excellent golf over the last 2 weeks, has consistent top 20 form here.

    Pablo Larrazabal - 1.5 point ew 40/1, noticed him going along OK recently without being in contention, possible 'player coming into form alert' partiulcarly as he has form here.

    Thomas Pieters - 1 point ew 50/1, came close to his maiden win a couple of weeks ago, top 10 here last year and 'bombers' seem to perform well on this course.

    European Tour Starting Balance = -37 points
    Malaysian Open Investment = 8 points
    Balance Carried Forward = -45 points


    Farmers Open

    Wouldnt be surprised to see Jordan Spieth and Jason Day in the final 2 ball for Sunday, though at one and two in the betting I've swerved them.

    Brandt Snedeker - 1.5 points ew 28/1, before last years missed cut he was 2nd in 2013 and won in 2012.

    Last week was his third tied 10th in 4 events and encouragingly he looked to be getting back to the old Sned's with the putter.

    Gary Woodland - 1 point ew 40/1, I really fancied him to go deep last week and he missed the cut!

    Lead after 3 rounds last year, I'll give him another chance at decent odds.

    Billy Horschel - 1point ew 50/1, this is the type of event you would expect him to do well in and at 50/1 he looks a liitle too big.

    PGA TOUR Balance Last Week = -38 Points
    Returns from Humana = +13.88 points
    PGA Tour Starting Balance this week = - 24.12 Points
    Farmers Open Investment = 7 Points 
    Balance Carried Forwards = -31.12 Points

    Good Luck all!

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