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Yes I don't think anyone could have predicted Kaymer's collapse today, he was priced up at 1/500 in running at one stage.
The old age adage of only bet what you can afford to lose would have been most appropriate today, because I'd have put the house on Kaymer cruising to victory.
[QUOTE]Yes I don't think anyone could have predicted Kaymer's collapse today, he was priced up at 1/500 in running at one stage. The old age adage of only bet what you can afford to lose would have been most appropriate today, because I'd have put the house on Kaymer cruising to victory.
Posted by TheDart
To Win
To Win
508
Complete blank last week with my selections, but after a bit of post event analysis, it's clear it wasn't my fault.
I picked the right players, its not my fault they all simply failed to perform!
I think there is a case to back Olesen, Grace and Carbrera-Bello again, but shorter prices for all 3 and some specific Qatar Open research, means I reluctantly drop the disgraced three players.
If George Coetzee and Thomas Aiken could team up as a better ball this week, they would surely romp home, George Coetzee has lead the putting stats for the last 2 years and was ranked 5th in putting 3 years ago.
Meanwhile Thomas Aiken has performed well despite some very poor putting stats.
Looking at the stats from past Qatar Open's its clear that some players really struggle on these greens whilst others excel, strangely Garcia and Westwood consistently rank high on the putting stats here though both are not known for their putting ability,
Last years runner up Miko Illonen has confirmed the importance of being able to putt here by saying...
Of course you can't get too hung up on the cold stats, as some humans have a habit of learning, so for example if Thomas Aiken suddenly finds a way to putt on these greens he should be very difficult to beat.
The other significant point that sticks out for me is that past winners and players who do well are links type players, players who do well in The Open, players who can play in the wind.
Past champions include, Paul Lawrie, Sergio, Ernie Els, Stenson, Scott, Andrew Coltart, Quiros and Chris Wood.
So taking all of the above into account and come up with a short list of around 20 players, the 4 +1, I am going with are:
Mikko Illonen - 1 point ew 50/1, last years runner up, ticks a lot of the right boxes.
Romain Wattell - 1 point ew 70/1, an improving record here, in finishing position and putting stats, was playing exceptionally well at the end of last season. A win from Gary Stal last week should give added inspiration.
Steve Webster - 1 point ew 80/1, 5th last year, 4th the year before, 12th in Abu Dhabi last week, no excuses not to do well this week.
Thomas Aitken - 1point ew, 100/1, two top 10's in The Open, he's managed a 5th and a 6th here in recent years despite performing poorly on the greens. Just in case he works out how to putt this week, I felt the 100/1 was just too big to ignore.
Matthew Baldwin - 2 points ew 300/1, my +1, to the 4 picks I was going to limit myself to and this week Matthew Baldwin is actually my main bet.
He missed the cut last week, but was extremely upbeat, declared tee to green his game remains in as good a shape as its ever been, struggled on the greens, but finished by saying he was very excited about something he'd work out about his putting over the closing holes of his second round.
He was 11 under here after 2 rounds last year and his putting stats for Qatar are on a strong upward trend.
If he was 33/1 I would still rate his chances but might look for value elsewhere, at 300/1 only a madman would ignore this opportunity!
European Tour Starting Balance = -19 points
Qatar Investment = 12 points
Balance Carried Forward = -31 points
With three different courses being played for the first 3 rounds, its difficult to get a fix on course form, though there are players with multiple good results here.
It seems some of the shortest and longest hitters have won this event, so again not easy to find the right player profile.
This event does produce the lowest scoring on the year, so it would suggest that getting to the green is easier than most weeks so players who can make more putts than most might have a slight advantage.
Harris English - 2points ew 30/1, noteworthy 3rd place finish last week on his first outing of 2105. Decent record here and can make putts from anywhere when the putter is hot.
Russell Knox - 2 points ew 60/1, seeing him up on the leaderboards last week on a course where he had failed to make the cut in 3 previous attempts, put Knox on my radar.
Thirteenth here last year and shot a 59 on the web.com tour in 2013, which certainly demonstrates he has the ability to make the required bucket load of birdies.
Brendon Todd - 1.5 points ew 40/1, third time I've backed him on the bounce, so it's a last chance which needs to convert to third time lucky!
Steady if not spectacular results in Hawaii, so you would hope he has something to build on. He can also build on the memory's of the tied 6th in this event last year.
Ryo Ishikawa - 1 point ew 125/1, still only 23 years of age, he promised great things and still has time on his side.
Wayward driving has held him back at times, but he still managed his best year on tour last season.
The forgiving course setups should suit him here and I could see this being the type of event where Ishikawa takes back a bit of the limelight that Matsuyama stole from young Ryo.
PGA TOUR STARTING BALANCE = -17 Points
Humana Challenge Investment = -13 Points
Balance Carried Forwards = -30 Points
I've not given up on him as such, I reluctantly passed over him, in search of better ew value elsewhere, which is the very thing I set out not to do this year (ignore the obvious chances of those you fancy irrespective of their price).
I should have backed Olesen and Grace, I fancy them both, but swerved them for bigger priced players.
Actually Flash I like all your picks this week, hope your confidence is rewarded (a little bit).
Seriously I've always thought this is a good thread, with some entertaining comments and contributions.
I reluctantly drop my desert king Rafa Cabrera-Bello and wake up to see him at the top of the leaderboard.
In contrast one of my new guys for the week, Steve Webster is sharing last place.
At least I have Thomas Aitken on -5 with two to play, but he then plays an awful shot on 17 and makes bogey, he pars the last, but the Europeantour website amends his scorecard and drops him down to -3.
Oh well I think, at least Romain Wattel has got off to a nice start, 1 under after 3; correction he's just double bogyed the 4th.
Let's hope Matthew Baldwin starts with a birdie on the easy par 5 10th, I mean a par is virtually a shot dropped on the field............no need to worry about a par, he opens with a sodding bogey!
I've got work to be getting on with, I'm off!
In-Play
Can you cash out?
I'd thought the same about keeping an eye on him for future events, he was a quality player pre-injury and looks to be back fully fit at long last.
Great day for Weisberger, though after just checking his scorecard I'm not sure what Gallacher is playing at today.
Firstly nope, u can't cash out when it's an ew bet, only when it's win only. (Well that's the case with Paddy Power anyway). Secondly, yep good start, but let's see where we are when those cheques are dished out on Sunday afternoon. Lastly, he's too modest to mention it, but I know The Dartster is also on Coatzee @ 50/1. He didn't want to bok him/me/others when he knew myself and others were on him too. But it gets better for him, Jerome backed him for end of round 2 leader ew @ 25/1. So he's already bagged an 8/1 winner.
FUN FRL Number One
Graham DeLaet - 20/1, seems right to give him his first SkyPoker Forum mention of 2015, seeing as its his birthday today!
Russell Knox - 25/1
Ryo Ishikawa - 28/1
FUN FRL Number Two
Paul Casey - 28/1
Matt Jones - 25/1
Brendon De Jonge - 20/1
Then it clicked earlier today......
They split up to play 3 different courses on days 1,2 and 3.