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Bo Van Pelt - 50/1, keeps throwing in low rounds of the day, keeps suggesting he is close to a big week, the course and conditions should suit this week, so in a field missing any real star names, I suggest he could go very well.
Robert Streb - 25/1, form man on the tour and early leader of the Fed-Ex rankings, as Jimmy Walker showed last year, a man in form is not to be ignored.
Spencer Levin - 66/1, a couple of years ago, I though he looked like a winner in waiting until he got injured. I've been keeping an eye on him recently, he looks to be playing well and his stats are right up there.
Also consider that he lost a play off here in 2011 and you are suddenly looking at a player that represents very good value at 66/1.
Will Mackenzie - 50/1, I noticed for a period last year that he seemed to be very popular with a lot of golfing pundits and to be fair for a couple of months he turned in some very good performances, I never bought into the Will Mackenzie love in last year, but have to confess that after a bit of research I've read enough to feel Will Mackenzie is worth a dabble.
Bonus Pick - Carlos Oritz -150/1, to go with my Weisberger selection, Calros Oritz is Mexican and he know's the course well.
So playing in front of a home crowd, it usually goes one of two ways, the added pressure and distractions gets to the player and he buckles or he feeds on the added attention and uses his local knowledge to his advantage.
He is a graduate from the Web.com tour where he picked up a couple of wins including a win in Mexico, so it bodes well for a good performance for Carlos Oritz.
Come on Will Mackenzie!!
I mean yesterday when I saw Will Mackenzie had got it to -4, I wanted to text Neil and tell him Will Mackenzie was going well, I didn't text Neil as I was wary that any positive text concerning Will Mackenzie would have caused a run of bogeys for our man in Mexico!
As it was I said nothing and Will Mackenzie picked up a couple more birdies and finished tied for the lead
For starters I've gone for Louis Oosthuizen at 40/1, he's got good form here in the past and though he hasn't played that much recently, when he has his results have been pretty good (as Larry would say) in quality fields.
He started the year with a win and is more than capable of signing off with a win here.
Doubled with.....
Gonzalo Fedez Castano at 28/1 in the Dunlop Phoenix, where he has recorded 3 top 10's in the last 3 years.
I will undoubtedly chuck some more money at the DP WTC in Dubai.
If you'd have asked last week, I might have been so bold as to suggest backing George Coetzee ew at 33/1 in the Turkish Open.
George finished 55th out of 78, so you are not getting any bold suggestions from me.
Good Luck and I'll be looking out to see what you decide to do and how you get on.
I've just seen my first bet Louis Oosthuizen is the headline tip with the sporting life, so that's put the mockers on Louis.
So to complete my portfolio I've gone for a few players with good Desert Swing form:
George Coetzee - 66/1, he was so disappointing last week, I didn't plan to back him again this year, let alone this week!
But his results in this neck of the woods over the last 2 years are outstanding, so I've decided that my faith wasn't really misguided last week and that George just had an off week and will bounce back with vengeance this week.
Romain Wattel - 40/1, seven top eleven finishes in his last 8 events and a 3rd place finish in Dubai earlier this year, ticks some pretty big boxes. worth a punt at 40/1 for the win or 10/1 the place.
Thorbjorn Olesen - 55/1, won in Australia a few weeks back, but like Coetzee he had a shocker last week. Back home this week, in a region where he usually plays well, as 4 top 5's in his last 6 events in the middle east prove.
Danny Willett - 50/1, after giving me a place return at 66/1 last week, I can't say no this week. He looked to be driving the ball superbly last week, if he can keep that going this week and the back holds up, I don't think it would be a surprise to see him finish top 5 again, even in this field!
Rafael Cabrera-Bello - 150/1, another player who usually plays well in this region, in fact he's said in the past how much he enjoys playing in these conditions. Well capable of giving me a run for my money at very tasty odds of 150/1
In-Play
As you guys have pointed out, Lee Westwood has done well in the past and I think its also significant that fellow tee to green specialist, Robert Allenby won here.
Simple logic for me was to check the GIR stats for the tour and go with the highest ranked player.
That turned out to be Danny Willett, I don't think he's played here before but I don't need much of an excuse to back Willett.
I think Martin Kaymer is also worth his place on the shortlist.
However looking at past course form and recent form, I really like Tim Clark at 22/1, in a shortened field 22/1 is just about big enough to go ew in my book.
As for Tiger's tournament, I'm going with Rickie fowler at 12/1.
Its a new venue this year, but it seems that quite a few of the players know the course very well including Tiger himself, I don't think Rickie is one of those that can boast good course knowledge, but I'm going with him as he seems to be playing so well every time he turns up at the moment.
I've also had a dabble in Indonesia, going with David Lipsky at 20/1, after a great first season on the European Tour, he's headed back out to Asia, where he is leading the Asian Tour with 3 events to play.
Singles, Doubles and Treble in place.
Cheers Neil,
Yes I was on Danny Willett, I was on ew at 25/1 pre tournament and 16/1 in running half way through day 1.
I've sang his praises so many times this year, I was kind of embarrassed to post too strongly in favor of him again.
Anyway I'll be remaining firmly in the Danny Willett camp next season, as I'm on him for the Race to Dubai, ew at 66/1 with out Rory and ew at 80/1 against the field.