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ISPS Perth
A very lopsided field this week, with the bookies giving nothing away at the top end of the market, then we have a mass of locals some of which are likely to have their best week of the year, followed by a group of players who are at the last chance saloon to win their card for next year. So......
In this field, with his current form, there was going to be one main bet for me this week but at a best priced 18/1, that really is poor value for Danny Willett. I may well have a saver on him, but for now I'll wait and see if he drifts out a bit.
So......
Oliver Fisher - 66/1, he looked like a winner in waiting a month or so, but didn't quite find the consistency need in all 4 rounds. Some of those 'best scores of the day' have stuck with me though and with a tied 18th last year, I think he's worth one more show of support at 66/1.
Thomas Pieter - 100/1, had a season of highs and lows which seems to go with the territory for many young players finding their feet on tour. Wide Open fairrways this week and that will give Thomas Pieters another chance to have a big week.
Justin Walters - 125/1, speculative to say the least. He was impressive in the way he suddenly upped his game at the end of last season to save his card, he will probably need a top 3 finish this week, so I'm on, just in case he's the sort of player that needs the extra kick up the backside of staring tour wilderness in the face.
Mcgladrey Classic
Harris English - 33/1, after a few months of poor results, he was an eye catching tied 16th last week, says this is one of his favorite courses and normally performs well when buckets of birdies are required.
Chad Campbell - 150/1, conditions should suit this week and I think he could be comfortable with his game at the moment, which means he shouldn't be a 150/1 shot.
Richard Sterne - 150/1, I think the bookies are being a little to casual here. Sterne was 6th at the Dunhill Links last month, he was 4th earlier in the year at one of the WGC's. if this event was in Europe I think Sterne would be 50/1 at best. Where length of the tee shouldn't be a factor this week, I think Richard Sterne is the standout value bet of the week!!!
Steve Bowditch 50/1 and doubled (each way) him with Richard Sterne at 125/1.
There's better weeks ahead!
For the time being I've had one bet...
BMW Masters - George Coetzee 35/1, ew first 5.
George himself has said he likes the course, he was tied 6th here in 2012, made the semis of the Matchplay last time out, he has a good all round game and has consistently been at the top of the putting stats on both tours this year.
Edit
Doubled with Geroge Coetzee I have gone for.....
CIMB Classic - Seung Yul Noh - 33/1, his first win as a professional came in Malaysia, he's now a PGA Tour winner with plenty of self belief, so why not get his second win in Malaysia and a second win on the PGA Tour.
Added a 'Glassback Double'.
Two of my favorite players on the respective tours, both pulled out of their last events with back issues.
BMW Masters - Danny Willett - 50/1, admittedly in a much weaker field, last week he was a best priced 16/1 in Australia. He came into the event in great form, but never got going and had to pull out after his first round.
Willett's back seem to settle down as quickly as it flares up, so were there has to be some caution, he's by no means a forlorn hope this week.
He's had plenty of time to settle in to the Asian time zone and played the course the last 2 years, with solid if not spectacular weeks.
CIMB Classic - Graham Delaet - 28/1, pulled out of the PGA Tour event 2 weeks with back issues, he's took 2 weeks off and reports no concerns. Flew out to Malaysia in plenty of time to get over the jet lag and was tied 7th here last year.
To do well here, players need to drive the ball very well and tee to green Delaet is one of THE best in the business, so all that remains is for DeLaet's back to hold up and for him to get the ball in that little hole with 1or 2 putts a green and Graham Delaet will win!
Edit: Made it a glassback treble thanks to Fred Couples at 14/1 in the Charles Schwab event on the Seniors Tour.
The words punter and mug spring to mind
My next bet Matthew Baldwin tweeted the following earlier today...
'Never a good sign when your up at 1am and very immobile with back spasms'!!!
Pleased to say he has since declared....
'So after an eventful night, I managed to hit a few balls this afternoon pain free. Hopefully that can continue the next 4 days as my golf feels in great shape and I can't wait to get going.'
Matthew Baldwin has been very bullish about his game for the last few weeks, he actually put together the best round of the day at the Portugal Masters, only to have it made null and void with the 3rd round eventually being cancelled.
I'm on at 200/1 outright and 100/1 FRL
Edit: Added Asian Tour regular Rikard Karlberg at 200/1 outright and 125/1 FRL.
Ew singles and doubles outright and FRL
BMW Masters - Romain Watttel - 40/1, there can't be too many players with recent form as hot as Romain Wattel, not priced at 40/1 anyway.
Nicely placed tied 4th with 3 to play as I type this, so I am now fearing the forum jinx.
CIMB Classic - Anirban Lahri - 66/1, 2nd on the Asian OOM, won the Macau Open last week.
Tied 56th 9 off the lead with 3 to play so not looking too good.
This is starting to feel like my diary!
Anyway, note to self.
Got back from Thailand Tuesday night and not a bad couple of days back in England.
Rikard Karlberg gave me a FRL win at 125/1 at the CIMB Classic, though on day 2 it would appear he played like the 200/1 shot he was as he dropped down the leaderboard.
Perhaps unsurprisingly one of the players (Graham DeLaet) in my 'glassback' double, pulled out after one hole of the CIMB Classic, with what was described as a.............. back injury! (Got to laugh)
It turned out Ok though as the bookies paid out on DeLaet as a non runner.
At the halfway stage in both events I have Romain Wattel in third position 3 off the lead in China and Seung Yul Noh in third position 3 off the lead in Malaysia.
Watched 861 last night, I was really impressed with Chris Moorman (though he couldn't compete with Neil Strike at a recent live event) and I went to bed with a smile after making the final table of the main event, picking up 10 bounties along the way.
I heard FlashFlush get a mention on 861, as late on he was still on for the Jackpot, good effort Flash!
I noticed you put your name forward for the Moorman analysis, I think once DivsDreams put his name forward they were always going to chose him, which is fair enough, he's a top player and a decent guy.
Though really, I don't see why they couldn't have chosen to follow 2 or 3 players.
For once it looks like I'm going to be around for the duration of this UKOPS, so I'm hoping I can get into a few of the main events.
I've played a few satellites, but drawn a blank so far.
From past experiences I've got to be careful with the bankroll with sats for UKOPS, it can be an expensive strategy.
Good luck yourself, if you are going to be playing a few of the events.
Posted by joesman1
Unlucky there Neil, your guts were a week out!
Apparently strong winds where the reason for the carnage.
I'll have a look at Weisberger next week, thanks for the heads up
If I was going to be cynical, I suppose I could say he also ticks the 'too good to be true' box.
The only weakness I can find is his price, though really 12/1 doesn't look that bad and I might even have a dabble myself.
Good Luck Neil!
I had a good UKOPS day 1 with a 2nd in the mini, which has taken care of my buy ins for the week, I also managed 25th in the Mini last night.
How about for a bit of added focus, we keep tabs of our UKOPS cashes to see who comes out on top?
We'll probably fail to cash again, now I've suggested it, lol.
By my reckoning scores on the doors after day 2 are:
Flash
Day 1 - Zero
Day 2 - Main - 17th - £232.30
Day 2 - Challenger - 2nd - £657.23
TOTAL = £889.53
Dart
Day 1 - Mini - 2nd - £761.60
Day 1 - £4K BH side - 52nd 2 bounties - £42.19
Day 2 - Mini - 25th 3 bounties - £16.71
TOTAL = £820.50
So after 2 days you are ahead and it will be advantage to you tonight as I'm going to be out for 2-3 hours early doors so its very unlikely I will play the main.
If you don't want your cashes posted up, no problem I'll delete this and say no more.
It seems my idea to give you a little extra focus, really paid off
Very, very well done Flash, keep up the good work.
As for me, well I said I wouldn't be playing the main as I wouldn't be online for the satellites, well I came up with a masterplan, which lead me to register in 3 all-in sats,
When I logged in at about 8:10, I was delighted to see a table with me sitting at it, instantly opened for the main event.
Flash
Day 1 - Zero
Day 2 - Main - 17th - £232.30
Day 2 - Mini - 1 bounty - £1.88
Day 2 - Challenger - 2nd - £657.23
Day 3 - Mini - FIRST - £1,001.00
TOTAL = £1,892.41
Dart
Day 1 - Mini - 2nd - £761.60
Day 1 - £4K BH side - 52nd 2 bounties - £42.19
Day 2 - Mini - 25th 3 bounties - £16.71
Day 3 - Challenger - 16th - £52.50
TOTAL = £873.00