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So in reply to Neil's post, what's the opposite of two great minds think alike?
I've done the opposite to Neil and backed Bradley Dredge at 40/1.
I just think he looks so good at the moment and as Neil said he clearly loves this event, so I'm on.
Main bet this week is Kristofer Broberg at 66/1, admittedly he doesn't have the course form that many do this week, but he did play 4 rounds here last year when not fully fit and on top of his game.
It's a different story for Broberg this year, fully fit and putting in some impressive performances, I fancy he could be ready for that first win on the main tour and this course should suit his game.
Next up for me is Brooks Koepka at 33/1, he was 7th here on his debut last season and played very well in the last 2 majors, he'll be one of those players who will be loving those reachable par 5's this week.
Finally I can't leave out Danny Willet at 25/1 this week, he's a tied 2nd here a couple of years ago and has had a largely consistent season. He had a week off last week, so the back should be well rested.
Jimmy Walker - 33/1, I just think he might have one more win in him this season, his game should suit this course and I read that he was one of only a handful of players with a little recent course knowledge / experience.
Hunter Mahan - 40/1, After his first win for 2 years, I think last weeks low key performance was understandable. This weeks venue is said to suit accuracy and tee to green Hunter is currently one of the best, if he gets the putter going again, there's not reason why he can't win his second play-off event.
Martin Kaymer - 50/1, tied 7th last week was his best finish since his superb US Open win, any suggestion of a return to form is worth taking a punt on at odds of 50/1.
Edit: missed the 50/1 so upped my stake and took 35/1 without Rory, that will teach the bookies!!!
Graeme Mcdowell - 50/1, suggestions of a traditional course with penal rough, always brings GMAC into the reckoning and at 50/1 he's another that looks good value this week.
Good Luck Everyone!!!
It took some balls on your part, for taking on the forum jinx like that, even if you were double handed
I've been having a look at the KLM Open and on first glance, I like the chances of around 80 players in the field this week, so not sure how I'm going to arrive at a sensible shortlist here!
Different story for me at the Tour Championship, where nobody really gives me any strong vibes, which doesn't seem quite right given that its the tours grand finale.
Shortlist of 80, reduced down to 5 in record time:
Oliver Fisher - 75/1 - Promised much when he arrived on tour in 2007, but despite a win in 2011, his performances could be described as sporadic.
Having his most consistent season on tour this year, with 4 top 10's already, which is reflected in his stats, in particular his stroke average which is almost a full shot lower than any previous year.
He struggled last year, but his best performance came on this course with a tied 11th and I always like it when a player plays well at a particular course when he's in the middle of a slump in form.
Proved links and wind player, represents good value in a wide open field this week.
Shane Lowry - 28/1 - Looks really comfortable in his environment on the tour these days and you get the impression he's in a good place on and off the course which is a great combination to have.
He's played some really good quality golf in recent months with some excellent results, whilst keeping just below the main media radar. Conditions will suit his natural ability this week.
Nicolas Colsaerts - 66/1 - Mixing it on both tours, he's had a very quiet summer, now back full time on the European Tour, he had a fast finishing never nearer tied 13th last week for his best result since a tied 2nd in April.
I did think it might be too soon to jump back onto Colsearts, but I know he's an accomplished links player and closer inspection shows 2 top 10's in this event in the last 4 years, I then discovered that in 2009 he gained his first professional tour win on the Challenge Tour in Holland, so that was enough for me and the 66/1 now looks too good to refuse.
Peter Uilhein - 100/1- Last week it was a toss up for me between Uilhein and his mate Brooks Koepka, I went for his mate Koepka at 33/1 as he had the better course and current form, it proved the right choice as Koepka finished tied 3rd but Uilhein who is coming back into form from injury, recovered well from a poor first round, suggesting he's close to competing again.
This week the bookies have spoilt the fun with Koepka, pricing him at 20/1, whereas Uilhein is 5 times the price at 100/1.
Koepke clearly has a great chance this week, but no way is he 5 times better than close buddy Uilhein, I'll take my chances on a top 5 for Uilhein at 20/1 with the bonus chance of a 100/1 for the win.
Matthew Baldwin - 125/1 - With 4 top 5's and 11 missed cuts, this season has been about peaks and troughs for Matthew Baldwin.
On first glance his recent results might not look like he's about to hit another peak, but I beg to differ.
After missed cuts at the Scottish, The Open and in Denmark, he was looking at another missed cut 2 events ago at the Czech Open, but pulled off what he described as a 'sneaky birdie' on his 36th hole to make the cut he then played a strong weekend to climb the leaderboard to 13th.
Last week a tied 54th at the European Masters might not look that good and actually it isn't, but for Baldwin it represents a first cut made at the event and 4 days of what he described as strong mentally and a real grind, which would suggest he is not entirely at home up in the mountains of Switzerland.
This week in Holland however, Baldwin is back in a setting he grew up on, links golf in the wind and with a game and mind that promises to be ready to compete this week, he could be in for another big week.
Tour Championship
29 runners, first 12 in the market 25/1 or less, a favorite who can win at a canter and only 4 places paid, I can't get too enthused about this from a betting perspective.
Hunter Mahan - 33/1, since his win 3 weeks ago, he's been at the back of the field in the last 2 events, perhaps he'd have preferred a break, perhaps that win took too much out of him , perhaps he subconsciously took a break over the last 2 weeks, leaving his A game in the locker knowing he would be in the top 5 going into the tour finale and have the chance to secure the Fed-Ex millions.
I fancy he'll either finish this top 4 or last 4, at 33/1 I'll take my chances that Hunter has one last big push left in him.
Bill Haas - 20/1 (without Rory), gone along nicely in the play offs without really getting into the big pressure stuff, could have timed his run nicely and of course won here a few years back. (when beating Hunter Mahan in a play off).
He's 28/1 outright, but I preferred the 20/1 without Rory to get the extra place position, as I think this is Rory's to lose.
Patrick Reed - 66/1 (without Rory), after looking like one of the favorites and with a great chance of winning at the half way stage 2 week ago, he fell quickly from grace with a shocking 3rd round 82.
He followed that shocker up with 3 poor rounds last week, but closed with a 'bounce back' 3 under 67 last Sunday.
The bookies aren't scared though and have priced him up as one of the outsiders, its a speculative, tentative ew without Rory at 66/1 for me.
A pound of Cheese?
Make that a pound of Edam washed down with a pint of Boddingtons?
Win
Single: Mcilroy, Rory @ 7/2
1 line at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential returns: £45.00
No: O/21898816/0000118
Total stake: £10.00
Free bets voucher: £0.00
Total Cost: £10.00
Great first round, nothing to do now but wait and see if anyone can catch him, so far so good.
Good Luck!!!
In the meantime, I've a little teaser
I recently came across some notes I made on a player from 2010.
This person does post on here, who do you reckon my player notes are for, bearing in mind this thread didn't exist in 2010, so said player was a complete stranger to me back then....
good player, bullied me in £15k final with 45 bluff, showed it on tv, nice bloke