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Can an old dog learn new tricks?

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  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks?:

    Posted by Tikay10
    Great escape? - Spolier alert he doesn't though does he.
  • edited January 2015

    2015 Opening Balance = £1,520.48

    15th January.

    £3.30, P0, W0

    £5.50, P22 W13

    £11, P3 W1

    Total = P25, W14, L11

    Profit/Loss on day £4.00

    Month to date;


    £3.30, P25, W14 (56%)

    £5.50, P104, W65 (63%)

    £11, P28, W17 (61%)

    Total, P157, W96, Game-Count 61%

    Closing balance £1,627.04

    Profit/Loss on Month £106.60

    Profit/Loss per game = £0.68
  • edited January 2015

    An extraordinary night, never had such fun.

    I've just trundled along steadily all month, £5 here, £10 there, nice & steady. 

    And then.......I began last night by losing SEVEN of the first NINE.
     
    How does this happen?

    I play a very low-variance style, don't limpy limp, keep out of trouble, choose my spots with great care, & my ranges are almost always nicely balanced. 

    And yet, I just lost game after game. No concentration excuses, I just kept losing. 

    If we get it in - as I did, 3 times - with A-K-2-5, & run into A-Q-3-9, we have got the villain strangled at both ends. Sure, we'll often just end up with a chop, but it's tough to lose both ends. But I did. 

    And I got it in bad several times, the other way round. Well maybe I'll get lucky, even at one end. No sirree.

    Lose, lose, lose lose lose.
     
    Generally, this is time to stop for the night, but I got all stubborn, & wanted to reduce the defecit, which was £40 after 9 games, ugh. 

    For a while, I steadied the ship - the defecit never increased, but it never reduced, either, it was sort of W L W L.  

    I plugged on, as stubborn as ever, & then, just like turning a light switch on, it completely reversed, & I finished by winning the last 9 out of 10, in fact the last 8 were all wins. 

    I perfectly understand variance, & it does not bother me one bit, but the mystery is how, win or lose, it seems to come in "runs". But it does. 

    It's not like I played better in the winning stretch, in fact I played worse, made some shocking plays.  But I was playing the rush, taking chances, & just kept getting there. 

    Anyway, took me 4 hours, my biggest session in January by far, & I ended up losing £4. It felt like the best night ever, it really did.  Get out of jail? Just a bit.




     
  • edited January 2015


    I have to apologize to _kagawa_ for, perhaps, the worst call in the history of bad calls, this was worse than any Macacgirl nonsense.

    This was during the HOT run.

    It was a fascinating game, we were 4 handed for ages. I had more than doubled up early, & was playing nice & cosy, as was "Mart", who had around the same as me. 

    The other 2 lads were Kaggy, & Pommy, both on about 2,000. 

    There was some comedy bants in the chat box, hoping Mart & me would bang heads, but Mart is a smart guy, & we had no intention of taking each other on, so it was all very tactical.
     
    It continued for ages, just sparring, & then, with Kaggy down to 4 or 5 Bigs, he button-shoved. I had a good low, & a bad high, but I reasoned he might shove with anything, & he knew I was scared to double him up. Never, Never EVER, double up a good player if you can help it.
     
    Anyway, I made the call, missed the lot, & ended up with just a pair of deuces on a Q-9-2 flop. I checked & he shoved.  And I.........called!

    I sort of thought he was pot stuck, & would c-shove with anything. But a pair of deuces was not beating his paired queens.....until I somehow two-paired it.

    I have no idea what I was thinking.

    Play the rush, eh?

    Quick "thank you" to Kaggy & Pommy as to their kind comments about this little Diary. I've neglected it a bit lately, as I've just been playing A B C up & down standard stuff, and I assumed everyone had abandoned ship.

    Anyway, I'm all revved up now, & can't wait to play tonight. See some of you later, I hope. Less variance tonight please.
      
  • edited January 2015
    RE: "I perfectly understand variance, & it does not bother me one bit, but the mystery is how, win or lose, it seems to come in "runs". But it does."

    Just maths innit?

    Just have play with a spreadsheet (if you get stuck there's a forum thread for help with these things now)

    Put in your win lose percentage as a variable, we know your winning so say its 60%, but you can play with this too start at 50% and move up in 2% steps.

    Then start a column, keep it simple just 100 samples calc a random number between 0 and 1. If the result is >= your percentage set to 0 if its less set to 1. Obviously the total number of 1s should be around 60 and 0's around 40 but chances are one or two either side.

    These are pure random numbers and the totals will smooth out closer to 60% and 40% over bigger samples.

    The interesting bit (if anyone is still with me here) is the clusters - you cant blame good play bad play tiredness table selection - its just a random number generator and probability at play. Guarantee you will see lots of clusters maybe even up to 8/9 streaks of both 0's and 1's even at a 60/40 split. This feels so wrong over 100 but it will happen (mostly) and you can keep recalcing of course or build a sheet with more samples.

  • edited January 2015


    Good stuff Phantom.

    It fascinates me how powerful maths are. I can't be doing with those that get all stroppy because they have a bit of bad luck, but those "clusters" (great word to describe it) are quite something.   

    I have no idea how I came to lose 7 from 9.

    I have no idea how I won 8 from 8.

    Same player, same game.

    It's all about sample size, too, I suppose. 8, 9, 25 or 100 games are meaningless, though the bigger the sample, the more likely the results reflect our ability.
     
  • edited January 2015
    Feller has this all worked out on p. 325 of An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, 3rd Edition, equation 7.11:
    qn∼1−px(r+1−rx)q⋅1xn+1
    where qn is the probability of no success run of length r in n trials, p is the probability of success, q=1−p, and x is the root near 1 of

    1−x+qprxr+1=0

    *formulae don't paste well into the forum - best go to the source for the equations
  • edited January 2015
    Good work on your diary Tikay.
    Keep it up please.

    Things that puzzle me at this game.........

    1. Shorty is all-in, has 2 callers.
        The 2 callers then proceed to go to war ??????

    2. Player A limps in early position.
        Player B pot raises from the blinds.
        Player A then re-pots all-in.
        Ah i'm thinking he's got a monster and was trapping.... but no, he turns over a pile of poo (and usually gets there)!!

    Edit*

    Earlier todaywas down to last 4.
    Folded round to me in sb, i have AJ52ss
    Pot it
    BB repots which effectively puts us both All-in
    He turns over KK99 and makes quads !!

  • edited January 2015
    using your numbers p157 w96 then the chance of a winning run of r is:

    r p
    8 70.8%
    9 51.9%
    10 35.4%
    11 23.1%
    12 14.6%

    and using your dec statistics p660 w356

    r p
    10 46.9%
    12 16.7%
    15  2.8%

    that is assuming your results are all independent of course. ie just because you won the last one doesn't increase your chance of winning the next.

  • edited January 2015
    Afternoon tikay

    I was running hotter than the sun yesterday winning 10 from 11 also played 3 mtt's got Hu in one 33  quid profit for the night happy days. 



  • edited January 2015
    and if you play 700 games a month for a year, and have a win rate of 66%, then it is 50:50 you will see a winning run of 20!

  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks?:
    In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks? : Ah Thanks! I'll be back soon enough. Bit under the weather at the moment, I've only got Chicken Pox! I wouldn't wish it on anyone, the fever I had before the spots emerged, was without a doubt the worst I've ever had!
    Posted by Macacgirl1
    Hi Karen,

    Really sorry to hear you have been unwell.

    Do look after yourself please, chicken pox is a nasty ilness to have at the best of times, but particularly so in the case of OAP's.
  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks?:
    Hi Bluff, Sat on a few tables with you now and enjoyed our little joust HU in a recent MTT. There is a PLO8 MTT league organised by Hitman and Churchy, 4 events at different buy in on Thursday night (ie tonight ;-)) Come along and get involved Neil sorry to hijack your diary Tikay....when are you going to make another appearance or are you retiring after winning the first one?
    Posted by HENDRIK62
    No no, not retiring from it, I'll give it another evening quite soon, maybe even this weekend.

    When is the next League Night?

    The problem with poker when you enjoy it as much as I do, is that we are so spoilt for choice, & there are not enough hours in the day.
  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks?:
    Feller has this all worked out on p. 325 of An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, 3rd Edition, equation 7.11: qn∼1−px(r+1−rx)q⋅1xn+1 where qn is the probability of no success run of length r in n trials, p is the probability of success, q=1−p, and x is the root near 1 of 1−x+qprxr+1=0 *formulae don't paste well into the forum - best go to the source for the equations
    Posted by GELDY
    Exactly as I thought, though I did it longhand.
  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks?:
    Afternoon tikay I was running hotter than the sun yesterday winning 10 from 11 also played 3 mtt's got Hu in one 33  quid profit for the night happy days. 
    Posted by bluffulot6
    You certainly were hitting cards last night, and playing well, too. A powerful combo, that.
  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks?:
    In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks? : No no, not retiring from it, I'll give it another evening quite soon, maybe even this weekend. When is the next League Night? The problem with poker when you enjoy it as much as I do, is that we are so spoilt for choice, & there are not enough hours in the day.
    Posted by Tikay10
    The league is every Thurs night.
  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks?:
    In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks? : The league is every Thurs night.
    Posted by VespaPX
    I'll have to miss it, I'm afraid, as I'm working Thursday night.

    Given the choice of playing a PLO8 League evening, or spending 5 hours sat next to Lord Smirk, I know which I'd prefer......
     
  • edited January 2015

    No Updates for 5 days, yikes, best get up to date. Been an interesting 5 days, too......
  • edited January 2015

    2015 Opening Balance = £1,520.48

    16th January.

    £3.30, P0, W0

    £5.50, P13 W6

    £11, P2 W2

    Total = P15, W8, L7

    Profit/Loss on day £6.50

    Month to date;


    £3.30, P25, W14 (56%)

    £5.50, P117, W71 (61%)

    £11, P30, W19 (63%)

    Total, P172, W104, Game-Count 60%

    Closing balance £1,633.54

    Profit/Loss on Month £113.10

    Profit/Loss per game = £0.66
  • edited January 2015

    Tough session, was up against it from the get go, after losing 5 of the first 6, but then won 5 of the last 6 to just about get out of it. Was fortunate I won both the £11ers, that was the difference between winning & losing.
     
    The games seemed tougher than usual, not sure why. 
     
  • edited January 2015

    2015 Opening Balance = £1,520.48

    17th January.

    £3.30, P0, W0

    £5.50, P22 W12

    £11, P13 W7

    Total = P35, W19, L16

    Profit/Loss on day £4.00

    Month to date;


    £3.30, P25, W14 (56%)

    £5.50, P139, W83 (60%)

    £11, P43, W26 (60%)

    Total, P207, W123, Game-Count 59%

    Closing balance £1,629.54

    Profit/Loss on Month £109.10

    Profit/Loss per game = £0.53
  • edited January 2015


    Biggest session of the month, by a long chalk. Who would have ever imagined 13 £11 PLO8 DYM's running in a single night? It used to take me a month to play that many.

    Again, I missed the break, & after winning the first 2, I lost an amazing SEVEN in a row to put me £40 down. Don't think I did much wrong, just fell very much the wrong side of variance.
     
    It was all damage limitation after that, & as luck would have it, won 4 of the last 5 to end up with a small loss (£4) on the night. For context, I spent £24 in Reg Fees during the session.
     
    Couple of new players in the game, one in particular was VERY impressive indeed & busted me repeatedly. His first few games had been a bit meh, but once he got the hang of it, he played amazingly well. More on him (or her) later.  
  • edited January 2015

    2015 Opening Balance = £1,520.48

    18th January.

    £3.30, P0, W0

    £5.50, P16 W10

    £11, P5 W1

    Total = P21, W11, L10

    Profit/Loss on day £23.00

    Month to date;


    £3.30, P25, W14 (56%)

    £5.50, P 155, W93 (60%)

    £11, P48, W27 (56%)

    Total, P228, W134, Game-Count 59%

    Closing balance £1,606.54

    Profit/Loss on Month £86.10

    Profit/Loss per game = £0.38
  • edited January 2015


    When I Posted the line below, the Forum Software forced me to insert a space between the "P" & the "1"...... as without a space, it was prohibited. It's like they know I have a leak.

    £5.50, P 155, W93 (60%)
  • edited January 2015


    BRUTAL session, losing 4 for 5 @ £11 was a real cruncher, & despite winning the overall game count, a nasty £23 loss ensued.

    I was getting my money jn good every single time. Just one of those nights.

    A sort of sense that all is not well arose in my mind, I am having to struggle to even stand still. It's like I'm starting a downswing, but am just about hanging in.

    So much is between our ears in this game. I sense I'm not playing wll enough though - can't keep finding excuses. May have to tweak a few things.
     
  • edited January 2015

    2015 Opening Balance = £1,520.48

    19th January.

    £3.30, P0, W0

    £5.50, P14 W3

    £11, P2 W1

    Total = P16, W4, L12

    Profit/Loss on day £49.00

    Month to date;


    £3.30, P25, W14 (56%)

    £5.50, P 169, W96 (57%)

    £11, P50, W28 (56%)

    Total, P244, W138, Game-Count 56%

    Closing balance £1,557.54

    Profit/Loss on Month £37.10

    Profit/Loss per game = £0.15
  • edited January 2015


    What?

    WHAT?

    Played 16, Won FOUR

    It gets better though. 

    I won 3 of the last 4!

    So I was 1 for 12 at one stage, ONE WIN IN 12 GAMES!

    No excuses, no finger pointing, it was just outdraw city.

    Someone mention "clusters" the other day. Not wrong.
     
    Anyway, that's destroyed all the metrics for January in one fell sweep. 

    What a game this is!

    I ran out of ways to lose hands, it was incred.
     
    Pretty sure my play was not good, either, once we get in a big hole, we tend to "press" too hard. 

    One lol hamnd which was a clear error, but a bit of a cooler, was v trevil25. 

    The flop was J-J-10, & I was holding 10-10........
     
    When Trev showed strength, I KNEW he had the J, but I don't know his kicker. Tough spot, as he'd go all-in with the bare J anyway, & can still hit his kicker.

    As it turned out, her never had a kicker -he had J-J in his hand, & had flopped quads!

    Pretty sure I should have let go, but when you are chasing losses, the foot tends to stick the accelerator to the floor.
     
    Yikes.    
     
     
  • edited January 2015
    Nooooooo

    Don't do this to us Teeks,

    I was looking forward to this update to cheer up the community,....
  • edited January 2015
    In Response to Re: Can an old dog learn new tricks?:
    Nooooooo Don't do this to us Teeks, I was looking forward to this update to cheer up the community,....
    Posted by GELDY
    Ha!

    Not finished yet. It may get better. Or worse. Only 1 more to do.

    You are right about the Community though.

    Did you ever see so much bickering, "digs" & general angst on what is supposed to be a place we come along to so that we can have a bit of fun, & relax? 

    It's very sad, imo. It's not restricted to this Forum, of course, it's the way things are these days, people behave very oddly Online, & quite different (& pleasant) in real life.
     
  • edited January 2015
    Stick in there Mr things will turn in your favor again very soon I've not played much this week on afternoons but I will be back Friday I'm running around 1pound per game profit this month 

    Hopefully I keep the run going for the remaining part of the month 
    Then give it a real push in Feb when I'm looking to everything plo or plo8 
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