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However, I'm not sure that leading the river is my preffered play. When you lead out, your hand looks exactly like what it is - either nut or 2nd nut flush (probably expects you to have AKc or AQc) a fair amount. Do you have any bluffs that play this way as I can't really imagine too many? So if villain is good, do you think he will pay you off with 7x (of which as you pointed out very few are non-FH anyway!) or a low flush (Tc or lower? - he might also fold his J high flush)
Which means, we're only really getting value all the time from a Q high flush - and that's a hand that will likely bet for value itself after you check. He might also go for thin value with a J high flush if he thinks you are going to lead K/Q high flushes here. So vs his value hands that we beat, we likely get almost the same value from betting as checking. But by checking we also:
- Allow him to bluff
If we think our opponent is such that he will almost never be bluffing river or capable of thin value-betting a J and is v likely to call quite a few worse hands then I think we can make an exploitative lead on the river. You never gave us any reads for this hand, so maybe that was what you thought at the time in which case I do like your river bet. Theory/range wise against a good opponent is where I would not like it.
As played, it's an ugh spot that I'm probably not capable of folding except when I'm playing my A game! Too much good odds/sigh call. But I agree with what's been said about his range here.
The flop/turn seems a bit backwards to me, like if I HAD to raise one or the other it'd definitely be the flop. I think the flop is a decent spot for us to raise, certainly not a mandatory raise though. However if we do flat, I don't think we should raise when the board pairs.
I just don't see the need to. I much prefer checking, and then seeing what happens with the other 4 guys. Yes it is possible everyone checks, which would be a shame, but I don't see that as likely. So I am just deferring my flop action until after someone else bets. Regarding, what I do if someone comes over the top of my turn 3bet. As I alluded too in my original assessment of this hand, I would almost certainly fold. (Although depends upon the opponent to some degree)
Cheers,
G
pre - tick
flop - tick
turn - concept - tick
turn - amount - interesting
I can see a rationale for it - make it look a bit polarised, although not sure if folding therafter then works
guess it depends on the table dynamic, and i'm assuming there might have been someone involved who had been calling light ..
Regarding the AK hand... I probably flat the 3bet for pot control in this spot (depending on the opponents stack obviously). I think this is just down to styles though as you said you are 'probably a bit more aggressive than standard'. I like to be active but in a small ball fashion when the stack sizes allow it. I feel when I am playing my best I try to give my opponents more rope to hang themselves or bleed off chips by flatting and playing more postflop. Again if I am playing decent I would be hoping to get more action post flop from weaker aces or maybe get a lot of pocket pairs off their hands post flop even if the AK doesn't connect.
Again I am not suggesting for a second that the 4bet was in some way wrong I think this is just down to styles and there are pros and cons both ways.
Looking forward to the upcoming hands and once again, great thread!
Might just be the best thread ever, & definitely TOTW.
Great stuff Graham, excellent in every way.
On deeper inspection there is room for a play here. The original raiser definitely doesnt need to have a T here and I feel is weighted to pocket pairs as the cbet into so many people with a missed Ax wouldn't be the best. I would imagine neil will balance his range here and be flatting or floating with open enders, FD's, pairs and also 10's. So I would wouldn't say either player has to have a T here. The original raiser may check the flop with a T or 77 or TT for obvious reasons and if either does have the T then I would feel it is more likely to be Neil. A reraise here would look strong as it is multiway and several players have seen the flop. You still have the BB to act but I guess you will find out soon enough if he has a T.
The reraise would look strong but I think it would have to be followed up on the turn by firing another barrel as the hands we would be trying to fold are probably going to be pretty strong hands/ pocket pairs. By reraising the flop and firing the turn I think it would be difficult for anything but a T or pocket TT/77 to continue. Pocket 7's or T's are less likely as obviously it would be the case cards.
I just have a feeling you are not folding here.
It would certainly be creative to do anything here but it would look like a very strong hand if you do make a play, your holdings are also not cards that you would be likely to lose more than the reraise and turn barrel with and get into trouble for stacks with.
Just trying to give another angle on it as the standard line seems to be instafold.
Even if it goes wrong and you lose a small amount, it will help balance your reraising range in similar spots and may result in you getting paid off big if you do nail one.