hi lambert, i watched a tiny amount of your live poker on twitch the other day, but had to cut it short due working night shifts, do you have any plans to do the same again any time soon? it was interesting to hear the thought processes as your making your decisions.
congrats on your results so far in your stable, i hope it all continues to go well for you
Cheers Sam, I aint very technical but from what Emma (my techy other half) tells me, EE (the supplier that everyone who's having problems is with) throttle your broadband between certain hours for sites that are set up as P2P (for example uTorrent) and for some reason, however Sky is set up, it's appearing to them like a P2P site so it's being throttled.
Cheers RLT, yeah I deffo plan on doing more, I'm gonna do them regular but think I'm gonna hold off doing them until this issue gets sorted with Sky/EE. According to EE it should be resolved in 48-72 hours, but we'll wait and see.
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Pretty sigh end to the session. It was a grim session where literally by midnight I have 0 cashes, and 1 comp left, managed to convert that 1 remaining comp into a deep run. It was a $5 cubed, and was my chance to save the session, then with 15 left, I GII for a decent stack with AKvA6, flop is 6xx and it's gg $70 was a very small consolation.
Lol yeah I know Fail. Had a week off work to spend with the family so haven't been playing, just came onto the forum for a min and thought I'd bump it up to see if anyone had any comments cos I had a few questions, like I didn't know if I was being too aggressive because I'm raising the button just short of 100% (probably 95%). It's not so worthwhile in early levels, but when it's 25/50 and upwards, people seem to just hand over their blinds soo easily and a few steals at these levels can really put them in trouble. Posted by Lambert180
Results been pretty meh recently, loads of shots at binking but no been able to convert any of them. The ones I can remember only the last few days...
I was 5/12 in a $35 6max turbo, GII AK v A3 and chopped it, a hold there puts me 1/11 ended up busting in 8th for like $165. $1.6k ftw
Same night as above I was really deep in an $11r doing well, can't remember how it happened but bust in 15th for like $70. $2.1k ftw there.
Last night was the grimmest of them all, really deep in 888's Challenge $35 2nd chance comp, big field, I'm down to the last 11, GII for a big stack with KK<A6o and he gets the Axx flop. That didn't bust me but was down to about 12bb, someone bust so it was FT bubble now w/ 10 left, and I'm now 10/10 after the KK hand... I ship A7o and get snapped by AA literally got the nut worst hand I could ship into AA lol, I'd be in miles better shape if I had 23o! I didn't get there so FT bubbled it for like $375 I think. $7k ftw
Still mega frustrating on Sky can barely play a single comp on here atm, think I'm prob like -£150 ish for the month mostly from MBIs.
Hi Paul, I have shared this thread with some of the tech guys and hope to have some info to share with you soon. Posted by Sky_SamT
Sam
I assume you mean you said to the tech boys if you don't fix the problems soon you will punish them by making them read all 130 pages of Lambo's diary!
Quite a few decent runs last night but no wins and no huge scores
I cashed the $27ko with a few heads for $66
Cashed a $3r for $17, very big comp, think i was like 160th out of a few thousand. When I went to bed Bates was still going in it with 30 left, not sure how he got on.
Went deep in the $13ko too, came 33/1716 for about $50
Deep run in Party's $50 main, but bust ATs<AQs in 15th for $150 ($2k ftw).
FT'd the $11rebuy on 888, gutting though had TT<77 which would have taken us 3handed and given me the CL but running spades gave him the 4flush so I got 4th for about $565
A +$500 ish night overall so not bad, just frustrating to not convert a few of those runs into proper scores.
Quite a few decent runs last night but no wins and no huge scores I cashed the $27ko with a few heads for $66 Cashed a $3r for $17, very big comp, think i was like 160th out of a few thousand. When I went to bed Bates was still going in it with 30 left, not sure how he got on. Went deep in the $13ko too, came 33/1716 for about $50 Deep run in Party's $50 main, but bust ATs<AQs in 15th for $150 ($2k ftw). FT'd the $11rebuy on 888, gutting though had TT<77 which would have taken us 3handed and given me the CL but running spades gave him the 4flush so I got 4th for about $565 A +$500 ish night overall so not bad, just frustrating to not convert a few of those runs into proper scores. Posted by Lambert180
Morning session went great Matt, I was exactly break even to the cent.
Had another good session tonight, but again can't help but feel frustrated. Pretty nuts but went and FT'd the 11r on 888 again, but just couldn't get anything going on the FT, got down to final 5, 3b jammed 33, called by A8o, we're good by the turn but needing to dodge like half the deck and we don't, gg in 5th for just over $500 ($2.2k ftw tonight).
Got mincashes (give or take) in $22 deepstack, $5.50ko, $11 FO and 27ko on stars so pretty much another +$500 day, but again so close to much more
Good results thus far! Last night I engaged in some deepstack action, having previously got involved in Bounty Hunters and not lasting very long at all in those.
Played two of them (was going to register for the main/mini combo, but I got discouraged from it by other members of the Sky community who basically said that I'd need aprox 3x the buy-in to allow for disaster's, rebuys and addons).
2x 60p All-in Satelittes to Main Event - No Seat Won.
1x 30p Turbo
I have also had my eye on the £300 Mega-stack. Think it might be worth a shot??
Overall quite happy with my play - got very lucky in a couple of spots, but very pleasing to cash both the DYM's I played, and shows I am right bang-in-form at this format!! Might try a couple more when I have a free moment later tonight, and back on the tables during saturday at some stage - even if it's just to pop online and promptly bust the social F/R within 10mins of entering!!!
Nah February aint going that great tbh lol. I'm like +$1k in the last 2 nights but they're pretty much the only decent results I've had all month and it adds up quick when you're in for $350-$400 per night. They've recovered a lot of losses like but still prob -$800 for the month atm. No biggy, top 3s are what bring in the $$$ and I've fell short quite a few times this month but I'm sure it'll come.
Here's the stake SS fwiw, so that's like 5th Jan when I started up to now (so just over 1 month). Think SS aint the best at tracking 888/party so some stuff might be missed but it's probably pretty close. At least I still got my shark
Yeah Gary deffo don't BI to the Wednesday main if you're expecting to treat it like an £11 comp, I was talking to someone out this recently, and I'm sure someone will pop up with a story of how they ran insanely good and did it but realistically if you BI to the main and only spend £11, it's just dead money in the prizepool for the better players cos you'll have no hope. Gotta treat it as a £33 minimum imo cos we shuold be double stacking at the start, and taking the add-on is an absolute must, then there's always the potential to need to rebuy if things go wrong... I'd say a good player is gonna spend somewhere between £44-£66 on average in that comp.
Deepstacks are probably a good starting point if you don't really know what you're doing in MTTs, but take advantage of the fact it's so deep imo, try things out, see what works etc. If you get 5000 chips in a deepy and you lose 2000 in the first couple of levels, it really isn't the end of the world. If you're just gonna see it as 'well it's deeper/slower so I got even more time to sit there and wait for AK and JJ+' then you won't learn much imo.
WP on the DYMs. Yes Mega stack is good if you like that kinda thing, I find it awfully boring if I'm honest but I can see the appeal and as above, it'll give you a chance to try out some different things.
Finally got round to playing my first morning session, it looked very optimistic but fell flat again when it matters.
I was CL for pretty much 3 hours straight in a $10 FO on party up until the point of being 4handed. The blinds are 2.5k/5k, and the 4 stacks are roughly 100k (me) v 100k v 20k v 30k. Yeah I just get KK<AA against the other 100k stack Only a small $10 FO w/ 97 runners, was $180 ftw but that pretty much would have freerolled my morning, I got $80 for 4th.
I also FT'd a $25 FO on 888 too with 92 runners, $590 ftw. I jam BvB w/ K9o, called by A3o, pretty much dead on A25r. I got 8th place for $90.
The only other cash was a mincash in a $10 FO on 888.
2 FTs from 11 comps, still make a small loss, mehhh.
Yeah deffo looking at more live comps this year, I was looking at 2 coming up a 25/25 leg and UKPC mini, but turns out they both fall on the same weekend and I'm away that weekend so gutted I can't play either.
Still not better with being able to access Sky sadly. Every passing week is killing my chances of getting on the SS leaderboard as I planned this year, beating Larson in the prop bet, and just making some £££
Hi Paul - Just thought I would drop in to say that I am still enjoying the diary. Have you given up on playing cash now or do you still play in the mornings sometimes? Not seen you mention it for a while.
Now your with this stable I guess you are analysing hands and play a lot, are you learning lots and do you think 'oh yeah, that seems obvious now' for certain plays I guess these decent players go through?
With the problems you are having with EE, have you reported it to them instead of Sky? FWIW it sounds to me like a problem with EE.
Haven't played cash for quite a while, definitely not at all in Feb, last time was some time in January. I'm usually up late (providing I've done ok) playing MTTs and usually too tired in the mornings to play a session now, but the mornings I am awake enough I'm playing MTTs now anyway.
Yeah I've learnt so many things in a short space of time, suppose that was always gonna happen at first cos there was bound to loads of simple fundamental mistakes I was making that can be easily fixed, but I feel like I'm a lot better now than when I started.
Another decent night, another night of near misses but meh I keep winning so I'm not gonna keep complaining!
I FT bubbled my favourite comp, the $50 6max turbo BH on party. Finished 7th for $262.50
Mincashed a $35 turbo 6max on 888 for $42
And had a reallllly deep run in a $27ko on stars but not deep enough I finished 31st out of 1338 runners for $123.66. First place was $4.5k + heads... that would have been a nice one to win.
Small profit on the night with the stake.
I heard talk on that EE/Sky connection problem thread from other EE people saying that it's been fine for them this week so I thought I'd give it a go and for some reason (I dunno if EE/Sky have done something) it seemed to work tonight. It was great to be able to play on Sky again, wasn't so great to brick every tournament like but you can't have it all! Hopefully I'll be able to play again next session.
Thanks for the reply Paul. I am sure a big win is just around the corner.
What's the score with the stable thing, is it a staking deal or just like-minded people trying to improve their play by running through different hand histories and situations wanting to always improve?
Apologies if you have already mentioned it in the diary or would rather not talk about it in a Public forum.
Nah I don't mind. Basically, the stables is a group of people who are staked, including me, so the guys in charge put up all of my BIs and I get 50% of the profit. There's a few people that run it/put the money up, and one of those is Marc Wright, and he's the guy that provides all of the coaching. One of the main reasons I wanted to join the group was to have the opportunity to get coached by Marc Wright.
I got one of my mates who subscribes to sharkscope to set this up for me if you're interested. It's just a way to be able to search all of my aliases that I'm staked for in 1 search.
Not much in the way of results tonight, had a very sick run in a big comp but another near miss to list sadly.
The vvv deep run was me finishing 31/2606 in a $27KO for $123 (first prize was $8.2k + heads)... wierdly I finished 31st in that last session too, fun times!
Mincashed the big 55, and cashed with a few heads in a $20 turbo bh on party for $45.
Was hoping I'd be able to play on Sky again tonight after it all being fine on Friday, but no, same old problems, so another Roller missed, probably just another £110 saved. So could only play the MBI cos it's post 10pm, got 1 bounty for £18.75 and that was that.
I had another winning night last night, but again near misses/no big scores, so more frustration, I'm sure it'll come sometime soon...
I bust a few off the money in the $50 turbo bh (about 15th I think) but got $45 in heads
Deep run in the big11, finished 242/7083 for $35 (about $11k ftw)
Mincashed the 27ko for like $50
Deep run in a $3rebuy on stars finishing 15/1600 for $85 ($2.2k ftw)
FT'd the $11rebuy on 888 again, that's now the 3rd time I've FT'd this comp in 7 days which is pretty sick in a 300 runner field. Annoyingly finished 5th again though There was a really annoying spot that was the big hit before me busting, I'm happy with the thought process etc it was just quite bizarre imo. Basically I was CL with 5 left, and the shortest stack is UTG and open jams 20bb, it folds to me in the BB and I've got 88 with about 30bb. Don't think he'd open jammed once on the FT from around these stack depths, but either way I think it's standard to assume we can pretty much rule out TT+ because this deep he'd minraise those to induce a jam so a lot of his range is gonna be smaller PPs and some hands we flip against but he had JJ and we lose. Pretty meh, bizarre hand for him to show up with imo. Very next hand I ship AT and lose v KQ to bust 5th for about $470 ($2.2k ftw as usual)
I also won my $120 $1mil GTD Grand Prix seat last night on Party first go.
That a tournament with ante's? Honestly, I'm not surprised at all to see villain show up with JJ there and 99-TT are even more likely. If villain is not that thinking they do it just because they don't want to see a flop with Qx or higher. If villain is a thinking player then their open jamming range has to consist of some strong pair hands as-well as AT/AJ/KQ so that opponents can't just call with any pair.
If we give villains range of 99-JJ, AT, AJ and KQ we are a 45% dog. Even if we add in 33-66 for good measure (seems absurd and non-ev to shove this many bb's with a small pair with 4 other players to get through) then we're only a 55% fave. If we remove small pairs but add some weak Ax hands we're still a 55% fave. With ICM determinations too, I think this is a clear fold with no read on villains range. Obviously if we had a better read on his range and was likely at least a 55% fave vs that range then it's probably a call but since we don't know that we just have to fold.
Be interesting what better MTT players think of it tho.
Nice going anyway! Sure a big score will come along soon
Reading through your posts tho confirms to me how much MTT's frustrate me. I love playing them but don't think I could play them regularly.. it's just so tilting to get so many close scores and in my case I'm always so self critical and if I make the slightest mistake that I think cost me from a big score it takes over a day to recover from it! A big mistake late in a MTT is a lot more damaging than a big mistake in a cash game and because of the amount of decisions in cash it's easier to recoup from the mistake than in a tournament when one mistake can mean you bust out.
Imo 8's is a fold, Ivan summed it up nicely. As CL 5 handed I'd rather be opening lots of pots, putting pressure on people and winning a lot of uncontested pots than take very marginal flips for a large % of your stack.
I think you've got ranges a little bit off (just imo ofc) Ivan.
I'd say 55/66/77 are all pretty standard shove spots for villian, definitely not absurd, and I'd expect to see those way more often than JJ. 99 he probably open ships but that's probably the only better hand than mine that does open ship, maybe TT, that's borderline. I'd 100% expect him to induce JJ+
Plus don't think we can say he open ships JJ but he's gonna induce AQ. I'd be a lot more inclined to include AK/AQ in his jamming range than I would JJ, especially if we're giving credit for him open shipping JJ.
Fwiw, I am 1/5 but there's hardly anything in it, I'm CL with 30bb, he's the shortest stack and still has 20bb, I'm only a few bb ahead of most players.
Also I'm not readless, should have mentioned that in OP I guess, although unlikely we'll ever be readless with 5 left on a FT if we've been paying attention. This guy is fairly laggy, opening/raising wider than most and a decent 3b % (not that it's relevant in this spot)
Sigh just got the HH up in HEM2 and got quite a few things wrong in my initial description lol. Blinds had just went up that hand so stacks slightly shallower than I said, and I've just about lost the CL.... 2/5 just stole blinds the hand before.
It's 12.5k/25k with 2.5k ante and stacks are
UTG (who shoves) 395k CO 428k BTN 627k SB 393k (after his SB) BB (me) 574k (after my BB)
So it's a 16bb jam w/ antes obv, and I've got 24bb, 5handed, does this change anything for you guys? I think it's reallly borderline in terms of $EV. It's clear cut +cEV AINEC, just not sure about $EV wise, I'll try and find the lobby/full details and run it through ICMizer later.
Fwiw payouts are very steep on 888, from memory it's something like....
Maybe you're right, I dunno but with 20bb shoving with 55 seems too loose to me especially when stack sizes are so close. But then I'm risk averse especially on sky and will raise/fold a 9bb stack-size at the right tables so I'm prob not best person to talk about open jamming ranges at 20bb!! Obviously if it looks like a tough table with no weak players then I think it's probably OK it's just high variance. 66 is borderline and probably OK and 77 is clear +ev to ship. But even with those hands included we're likely coin-flipping vs their range with 88.
16bb's does change it some-what - that makes 55 seem completely standard to ship now. I still think I would fold 88's but think it's v-v close and think the call is probably OK/fine especially given the steep payouts. 99 would def. be a call. Be interesting to see what ICMizer says!
Yeh now that it's 16bbs and the guy is laggy calling is a lot closer. Villain may just ship his entire opening range from this stack size (don't think it's good but see lots of players do this.) so villains range is gonna be wider.
Comments
congrats on your results so far in your stable, i hope it all continues to go well for you
Cheers RLT, yeah I deffo plan on doing more, I'm gonna do them regular but think I'm gonna hold off doing them until this issue gets sorted with Sky/EE. According to EE it should be resolved in 48-72 hours, but we'll wait and see.
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Pretty sigh end to the session. It was a grim session where literally by midnight I have 0 cashes, and 1 comp left, managed to convert that 1 remaining comp into a deep run. It was a $5 cubed, and was my chance to save the session, then with 15 left, I GII for a decent stack with AKvA6, flop is 6xx and it's gg $70 was a very small consolation.
Back fresh for tomorrow to go and win some comps!
I'm about to send you a PM because I still haven't heard anything back about it.
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Results been pretty meh recently, loads of shots at binking but no been able to convert any of them. The ones I can remember only the last few days...
I was 5/12 in a $35 6max turbo, GII AK v A3 and chopped it, a hold there puts me 1/11 ended up busting in 8th for like $165. $1.6k ftw
Same night as above I was really deep in an $11r doing well, can't remember how it happened but bust in 15th for like $70. $2.1k ftw there.
Last night was the grimmest of them all, really deep in 888's Challenge $35 2nd chance comp, big field, I'm down to the last 11, GII for a big stack with KK<A6o and he gets the Axx flop. That didn't bust me but was down to about 12bb, someone bust so it was FT bubble now w/ 10 left, and I'm now 10/10 after the KK hand... I ship A7o and get snapped by AA literally got the nut worst hand I could ship into AA lol, I'd be in miles better shape if I had 23o! I didn't get there so FT bubbled it for like $375 I think. $7k ftw
Still mega frustrating on Sky can barely play a single comp on here atm, think I'm prob like -£150 ish for the month mostly from MBIs.
I assume you mean you said to the tech boys if you don't fix the problems soon you will punish them by making them read all 130 pages of Lambo's diary!
Matt
I cashed the $27ko with a few heads for $66
Cashed a $3r for $17, very big comp, think i was like 160th out of a few thousand. When I went to bed Bates was still going in it with 30 left, not sure how he got on.
Went deep in the $13ko too, came 33/1716 for about $50
Deep run in Party's $50 main, but bust ATs<AQs in 15th for $150 ($2k ftw).
FT'd the $11rebuy on 888, gutting though had TT<77 which would have taken us 3handed and given me the CL but running spades gave him the 4flush so I got 4th for about $565
A +$500 ish night overall so not bad, just frustrating to not convert a few of those runs into proper scores.
How did the morning session go?
Had another good session tonight, but again can't help but feel frustrated. Pretty nuts but went and FT'd the 11r on 888 again, but just couldn't get anything going on the FT, got down to final 5, 3b jammed 33, called by A8o, we're good by the turn but needing to dodge like half the deck and we don't, gg in 5th for just over $500 ($2.2k ftw tonight).
Got mincashes (give or take) in $22 deepstack, $5.50ko, $11 FO and 27ko on stars so pretty much another +$500 day, but again so close to much more
Here's the stake SS fwiw, so that's like 5th Jan when I started up to now (so just over 1 month). Think SS aint the best at tracking 888/party so some stuff might be missed but it's probably pretty close. At least I still got my shark
http://www.sharkscope.com/?357#Player-Statistics//networks/Player%20Group/players/Lambo%20Stable
Yeah Gary deffo don't BI to the Wednesday main if you're expecting to treat it like an £11 comp, I was talking to someone out this recently, and I'm sure someone will pop up with a story of how they ran insanely good and did it but realistically if you BI to the main and only spend £11, it's just dead money in the prizepool for the better players cos you'll have no hope. Gotta treat it as a £33 minimum imo cos we shuold be double stacking at the start, and taking the add-on is an absolute must, then there's always the potential to need to rebuy if things go wrong... I'd say a good player is gonna spend somewhere between £44-£66 on average in that comp.
Deepstacks are probably a good starting point if you don't really know what you're doing in MTTs, but take advantage of the fact it's so deep imo, try things out, see what works etc. If you get 5000 chips in a deepy and you lose 2000 in the first couple of levels, it really isn't the end of the world. If you're just gonna see it as 'well it's deeper/slower so I got even more time to sit there and wait for AK and JJ+' then you won't learn much imo.
WP on the DYMs. Yes Mega stack is good if you like that kinda thing, I find it awfully boring if I'm honest but I can see the appeal and as above, it'll give you a chance to try out some different things.
Finally got round to playing my first morning session, it looked very optimistic but fell flat again when it matters.
I was CL for pretty much 3 hours straight in a $10 FO on party up until the point of being 4handed. The blinds are 2.5k/5k, and the 4 stacks are roughly 100k (me) v 100k v 20k v 30k. Yeah I just get KK<AA against the other 100k stack Only a small $10 FO w/ 97 runners, was $180 ftw but that pretty much would have freerolled my morning, I got $80 for 4th.
I also FT'd a $25 FO on 888 too with 92 runners, $590 ftw. I jam BvB w/ K9o, called by A3o, pretty much dead on A25r. I got 8th place for $90.
The only other cash was a mincash in a $10 FO on 888.
2 FTs from 11 comps, still make a small loss, mehhh.
Yeah deffo looking at more live comps this year, I was looking at 2 coming up a 25/25 leg and UKPC mini, but turns out they both fall on the same weekend and I'm away that weekend so gutted I can't play either.
Still not better with being able to access Sky sadly. Every passing week is killing my chances of getting on the SS leaderboard as I planned this year, beating Larson in the prop bet, and just making some £££
Now your with this stable I guess you are analysing hands and play a lot, are you learning lots and do you think 'oh yeah, that seems obvious now' for certain plays I guess these decent players go through?
With the problems you are having with EE, have you reported it to them instead of Sky? FWIW it sounds to me like a problem with EE.
All the best
Greg.
Yeah I've learnt so many things in a short space of time, suppose that was always gonna happen at first cos there was bound to loads of simple fundamental mistakes I was making that can be easily fixed, but I feel like I'm a lot better now than when I started.
Another decent night, another night of near misses but meh I keep winning so I'm not gonna keep complaining!
I FT bubbled my favourite comp, the $50 6max turbo BH on party. Finished 7th for $262.50
Mincashed a $35 turbo 6max on 888 for $42
And had a reallllly deep run in a $27ko on stars but not deep enough I finished 31st out of 1338 runners for $123.66. First place was $4.5k + heads... that would have been a nice one to win.
Small profit on the night with the stake.
I heard talk on that EE/Sky connection problem thread from other EE people saying that it's been fine for them this week so I thought I'd give it a go and for some reason (I dunno if EE/Sky have done something) it seemed to work tonight. It was great to be able to play on Sky again, wasn't so great to brick every tournament like but you can't have it all! Hopefully I'll be able to play again next session.
What's the score with the stable thing, is it a staking deal or just like-minded people trying to improve their play by running through different hand histories and situations wanting to always improve?
Apologies if you have already mentioned it in the diary or would rather not talk about it in a Public forum.
Greg.
I got one of my mates who subscribes to sharkscope to set this up for me if you're interested. It's just a way to be able to search all of my aliases that I'm staked for in 1 search.
http://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-Statistics//networks/Player%20Group/players/Lambo%20Stable
==========================
Not much in the way of results tonight, had a very sick run in a big comp but another near miss to list sadly.
The vvv deep run was me finishing 31/2606 in a $27KO for $123 (first prize was $8.2k + heads)... wierdly I finished 31st in that last session too, fun times!
Mincashed the big 55, and cashed with a few heads in a $20 turbo bh on party for $45.
Was hoping I'd be able to play on Sky again tonight after it all being fine on Friday, but no, same old problems, so another Roller missed, probably just another £110 saved. So could only play the MBI cos it's post 10pm, got 1 bounty for £18.75 and that was that.
I bust a few off the money in the $50 turbo bh (about 15th I think) but got $45 in heads
Deep run in the big11, finished 242/7083 for $35 (about $11k ftw)
Mincashed the 27ko for like $50
Deep run in a $3rebuy on stars finishing 15/1600 for $85 ($2.2k ftw)
FT'd the $11rebuy on 888 again, that's now the 3rd time I've FT'd this comp in 7 days which is pretty sick in a 300 runner field. Annoyingly finished 5th again though There was a really annoying spot that was the big hit before me busting, I'm happy with the thought process etc it was just quite bizarre imo. Basically I was CL with 5 left, and the shortest stack is UTG and open jams 20bb, it folds to me in the BB and I've got 88 with about 30bb. Don't think he'd open jammed once on the FT from around these stack depths, but either way I think it's standard to assume we can pretty much rule out TT+ because this deep he'd minraise those to induce a jam so a lot of his range is gonna be smaller PPs and some hands we flip against but he had JJ and we lose. Pretty meh, bizarre hand for him to show up with imo. Very next hand I ship AT and lose v KQ to bust 5th for about $470 ($2.2k ftw as usual)
I also won my $120 $1mil GTD Grand Prix seat last night on Party first go.
If we give villains range of 99-JJ, AT, AJ and KQ we are a 45% dog. Even if we add in 33-66 for good measure (seems absurd and non-ev to shove this many bb's with a small pair with 4 other players to get through) then we're only a 55% fave. If we remove small pairs but add some weak Ax hands we're still a 55% fave. With ICM determinations too, I think this is a clear fold with no read on villains range. Obviously if we had a better read on his range and was likely at least a 55% fave vs that range then it's probably a call but since we don't know that we just have to fold.
Be interesting what better MTT players think of it tho.
Nice going anyway! Sure a big score will come along soon
Reading through your posts tho confirms to me how much MTT's frustrate me. I love playing them but don't think I could play them regularly.. it's just so tilting to get so many close scores and in my case I'm always so self critical and if I make the slightest mistake that I think cost me from a big score it takes over a day to recover from it! A big mistake late in a MTT is a lot more damaging than a big mistake in a cash game and because of the amount of decisions in cash it's easier to recoup from the mistake than in a tournament when one mistake can mean you bust out.
Imo 8's is a fold, Ivan summed it up nicely. As CL 5 handed I'd rather be opening lots of pots, putting pressure on people and winning a lot of uncontested pots than take very marginal flips for a large % of your stack.
I'd say 55/66/77 are all pretty standard shove spots for villian, definitely not absurd, and I'd expect to see those way more often than JJ. 99 he probably open ships but that's probably the only better hand than mine that does open ship, maybe TT, that's borderline. I'd 100% expect him to induce JJ+
Plus don't think we can say he open ships JJ but he's gonna induce AQ. I'd be a lot more inclined to include AK/AQ in his jamming range than I would JJ, especially if we're giving credit for him open shipping JJ.
Fwiw, I am 1/5 but there's hardly anything in it, I'm CL with 30bb, he's the shortest stack and still has 20bb, I'm only a few bb ahead of most players.
Also I'm not readless, should have mentioned that in OP I guess, although unlikely we'll ever be readless with 5 left on a FT if we've been paying attention. This guy is fairly laggy, opening/raising wider than most and a decent 3b % (not that it's relevant in this spot)
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Sigh just got the HH up in HEM2 and got quite a few things wrong in my initial description lol. Blinds had just went up that hand so stacks slightly shallower than I said, and I've just about lost the CL.... 2/5 just stole blinds the hand before.
It's 12.5k/25k with 2.5k ante and stacks are
UTG (who shoves) 395k
CO 428k
BTN 627k
SB 393k (after his SB)
BB (me) 574k (after my BB)
So it's a 16bb jam w/ antes obv, and I've got 24bb, 5handed, does this change anything for you guys? I think it's reallly borderline in terms of $EV. It's clear cut +cEV AINEC, just not sure about $EV wise, I'll try and find the lobby/full details and run it through ICMizer later.
Fwiw payouts are very steep on 888, from memory it's something like....
5th = $470
4th = $570
3rd = $680
2nd = $1150
1st = $2200
16bb's does change it some-what - that makes 55 seem completely standard to ship now. I still think I would fold 88's but think it's v-v close and think the call is probably OK/fine especially given the steep payouts. 99 would def. be a call. Be interesting to see what ICMizer says!
Yeh now that it's 16bbs and the guy is laggy calling is a lot closer. Villain may just ship his entire opening range from this stack size (don't think it's good but see lots of players do this.) so villains range is gonna be wider.