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Jimmy Walker - 40/1, San Antonio resident, finished 3rd in this event on this course in 2010, three top 10's this season, some seriously good stats that should suit this course, very good ew value.
Jordan Spieth - 40/1, another Texan, Spieth is still only 19 years young, his amateur record is perhaps only second to Tiger in the modern game and in the handful of pro starts he has made, his record is vey impressive, so much so that he has gained 'special temporary member status' on the tour, a first tour win looks very close and once he does win, he won't be seen at 40/1 for a long time!
Brendan deJonge - 80/1, have to confess the 80/1 offered by one generous bookmaker swayed me as much as anything, he was on the short list thanks to four top 15's in 11 starts this season and high on the total driving and all round stats, so has the form and game to do well here.
James Driscoll - 150/1, best results generally come at windy venues, including a playoff defeat in this event and a tied 9th on this course, finished tied 9th at Pebble Beach this season.
I've missed the best part of 3 weeks and have been reading through the posts and found the shared opinions on how we make our selections interesting, I was thinking of sharing my strategy anyway so hear goes....
I usually have my shortlist of current favourites and this changes slightly week from week, I tend to have a decent memory (not perfect) for players who have done well at the same courses in previous years and with certain events coming up I am looking at those players to see what shape their game is in.
Of course there is plenty of media out there to help with the analysis, it's not just course form I'm looking for but also regional form, in 'Europe' there is definitely a bunch of players that perform better than others at an Asian event, same applies on the American tour, east to west coast, weather conditions and even times of the year.
So when I'm done, the final factor and deciding factor for me is the value from the bookmakers, if a player on my short list is 20/1 or less I will probably leave him alone, which I realise might be foolish, I pick a player who I think will do well, the bookies agree he has a great chance so I ignore him!
On the other hand if my short-listed player is 40/1 + I am on in a flash, my thought process is that in a field of 156 players, I am always backing to finish top 5, the win is a bonus, so I will hardly ever back the likes of Woods, Mickleson, Mcllroy etc, these players at odds of 10/1 or less will usually give you a good run for your money, but even backing them week in week out doesn't ensure a profit, anything but in my humble opinion.
Instead I'm looking for a minimum 10/1 payback if my selection finishes fifth and if he wins it's a bonus and a healthy one at that.
It's a strategy that serves me quite well, I feel a bit of a fraud but in the weeks I've been away from the forum I won on two good priced winners, Chris Wood at 100/1 and Kiradech Aphibarnrat at 50/1 and last week I came very close with Mikko Ilonen's tied 2nd at 66/1.
Examples of my strategy working and not working, is with Brandt Snedeker, last season I backed him often, I was on him at 33/1 when he won the event where Kyle Stanley imploded with an 8 on the last hole, I was on Snedeker again at 250/1 for The Open and he finished top 5, I backed him in running at 40/1 in one of the play off events and he won, I backed him ante post for The Masters at 66/1, then came Pebble Beach an event and conditions I believed were ideal for Snedeker, he was the in form player but he was a measly (in my mind) 14/1 so I left him alone and of course he won.
Finally occasionally I might have a player or two that I think the bookies are just ignoring and offering super crazy value, step forward one Graham DeLaet, over the last 6 months I have had some decent wins on this guy, 250/1 placed, 40/1 win for top rest of the world player, 130/1 placed first round leader and 10/1 to finish top 20, his odds have shortened somewhat in recent weeks, but as long as he stay's close to 100/1 I will back him at various levels until he wins or stops playing at what I believe is at a level capable of winning, or the worst possible fate in that the bookies get hold of him and his 'value' tumbles before he gets that debut win.
So there you go, that's my strategy, I find golf betting great fun and a challenge and picking a 40/1 place (or bigger), gives me so much more satisfaction than backing a 10/1 shot.
Any comments constructive or otherwise are welcome.
Good Luck All!!!
Edit: Wow I can waffle, I didn't realise I had written quite so much!
Flash you got me thinking about the differences between the two tours.
I've been looking at my returns over the last nine months and I've had far more success on the European Tour than the PGA Tour, I did back Dustin Johnson at 14/1 for this seasons opener and I've had some decent ew returns plus a few savers on the 'in running' markets in PGA events.
In comparison over the same period, I've had 2 x 100/1 winners, an 80/1 winner and 2 x 50/1 winners on the European Tour plus quite a few placed at decent prices.
Perhaps I should start doubling up my European picks with your PGA Tour picks.
I can't work out why I should be having more success on the European Tour, given all the stats that are available for the PGA, perhaps it's my interpretation of those stats, or luck, or maybe a few more players priced at 25/1 and under win on the PGA Tour, maybe I need to lower my 'value' expectations on the PGA Tour?
I've had one of those gut feelings we all get from time to time and it won't go away, this one is for Padraig Harrington!
I recall last year that he said and his results seemed to back him up that the tougher the challenge the easier he found it.
Well this venue has been one of the toughest none major events in recent years, plus the wind can blow, which we know Pardaig also enjoy's.
Last time out he was 6th in Malaysia, he could be accused of being inconsistent this year, but I think he remains a class act and like the fact he's under the radar somewhat this week and I like even more the 50/1 on offer, which ticks my 'value' box big style.
I've backed him outright and with an 8.00am tee time, I've backed Padraig ew also at 50/1 in the first round leader market, as he is well capable of getting off to a flier.
I was very impressed with what I saw of Ben Kohles last night, he looked very confident and didn't look like he could miss on the greens, also showed good temperament.
His only bogey came just after I posted that he was going well, (I'm sure this board is jinxed).
Just checked his stats for day 1 - Driving 50%, GIR 38.89%, which are pretty awful stats, but strokes gained putting at 2.615 which is as good as the other stats are bad.
Like you say hopefully (for you) he's got the bad round out of the way, afterall I beleive he is normally very accurate (more than most) tee to green.
I so nearly backed him myself this week, kind of wish I had now as 100/1 looks good, if my selections weren't well placed I would take the 33/1 on Kohles now.
Actually I backed one other player pre-tournament, but am not going to name him at this stage, in order to protect him from any messageboard jinx's!
Placed (matched) Order by Matched Date
What a story a Marcel Siem win would make.
Won last week, people were saying he had done enough to get in the top 50 world rankings for qualification into The Masters, he eventually finished 51st missing out by 0.3 points.
Then traveled to the States on Monday thanks to a late sponsors invitation.
Has to win to get in The Masters and is now one off the lead with & to play, come on Marcel!