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I will always be backing GMac in a major and on a links course, that said this must be the first year for a while if not ever that he comes to The Open having missed the cut in the first two majors.
I like Mannessero especially at 80/1, he's a special talent and I believe he already has some decent links form in his young career.
If having a victory in 2013 really is an important stat, I might be struggling with my shortlist, I'll be looking at Mikko Illonen if he qualifies and the enigma that is Dustin Jonson.
'Form' players I like the look of at the moment are Hunter Mahan, Rickie Fowler, Martin Kaymer and Henrik Stenson, though I admit interpretation of form is open for dispute.
Oh and I must have half a dozen 3 figure picks, headed by Danny Willett, if he proves his fitness over the next few weeks, I can't see the 250/1 on offer at the moment lasting for long.
There's possibly some value there, with Graham Storm at 50/1 who's won the qualifier twice in the last 4 years.
I like the look of Lee Slattery at 50/1, he got through last year and maybe his weekend off will help him qualify for The Open.
If Matthew Baldwin gets back in time, he also got through qualifying last year so maybe at 40/1 he can repay me for his collapse today?
I'll see how DeLaet finishes tonight before placing any bets or not.
A place for Joesman with Simpson by my reckoning.
I watched him with interest over the last few holes Mr Dart.... He defo struggled on the greens when the pressure was on, til he couldn't possibly win, then stiffed it on the 18th.
Not sure if I should feel disappointed or pleased with the place.
It's all good experience, though I guess he will be nearer to 50/1 than 100/1 next time out.
I still like his game and maybe I can feel a few ante post bets coming up for the PGA Championship.
Irish Open
My first bet in the Irish Open was Rafa Carbrera-Bello at 80/1, Splashies is on him at 100/1!
My first bet in the AT&T was Bo Van Pelt at 40/1, both Splashies and Flash are on him!
Next bet and third week running for me is Rickie Fowler 28/1, Splashies is on him as well!
and then to cap it all off, Flash is only on my 150/1 tip from last week, Bryce Molder!!!
I'll be back with my full list of picks, when I've composed myself.
Rory and Gmac are the obvious class in the field but I can't back them at 8/1 and 14/1 respectively. Same applies for form horse and winner of this event last time it was held here, Thomas Bjorn at 16/1 is mean.
Too many question marks over Padraig Harrington for my liking and easily swerved at 18/1. I would have been on local boy Shane Lowry at 40/1, but not the 25/1 on offer, though I'll keep an eye on him in running.
So, looking for good place bets this week, at 1/4 odds first 6, with a win being a bonus.
Victor Dubuisson - 66/1, been playing very well, was well placed after day one last week, but came a cropper too many times on the risk / reward holes, a more straight forward course this week should hopefully suit Victor.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 80/1, After a quiet few weeks, Rafa tends to find a bit of form one week and then the following week BOOM top 5. He was 3 missed cuts, 44th, 49th and 51st in the previous 6 weeks, but last week showed a nice return to some kind of form with a tied 26th, came 2nd in this event last year though last years was on the links course of Portrush, Rafa's all-round game is good enough to win anywhere when's he's on form.
Damien McGrane - 100/1, Not one of the big Irish names, but still a top player on his day. Top 20 last time this event was played here and finished tied 14th in his last two outings this season. His putting stats are better than they have ever been and he is ranked 19th on tour for putts per round. Could go well at home and under the radar.
AT & T
Rickie Fowler 28/1, playing very well at the moment and is a class act, frustratingly has been throwing in one bad round with 3 top notch rounds, if he brings consistency for 4 days, he'll lap the field this week and at 28/1 still offers ew value.
Bo Van Pelt 40/1,after a slow start to the season, he seems to getting into his stride, made a significant jump in some of the putting stats last week and has very good course form here, 40/1 looks very generous!
Chris Stroud 80/1, If it wasn't for the squirrels he would have won last week, he did nothing wrong in defeat and looked very impressive when the pressure was on. He will be thinking if Ken Duke can do it, I can do it and must fancy his chances this week, especially as he was tied 6th in 2011.
Almost last but not least I have to back Graham DeLaet, I'm on at 40/1, I believe he's getting better and stronger and at the right end of a learning curve, though I note he's not anyone's pick this week (or any other week) and sense there are questions over his putting and temperment from some quarters.
Finally thanks partly to my winnings from Joesman dog, I've allowed myself the sentimental luxury of a DeLaet double with Danny Willett at 45/1.
Good Luck All!!!
I backed Bryce Molder at 150/1 last week and confess I wasn't goint to back him this week, but with Flash picking Molder this week, I felt obliged to have a small dabble myself.
I've doubled him with Damien McGrane at 150/1, I was already on McGrane at 100/1, which was best price at the time, but I'm not letting the bookies beat me, not sure why he is so big, perhaps someone in the know, saw my picks and decided it was safe to push McGrane out to 150/1
In a total Damien McGrane love in, I've backed him at 22/1 ew 1/4 odds first 3 for top Irishman.
With the leading 3, Rory, GMac and Padraig all priced 9/2 or less and all with indifferent form, I think Lowry and even Sean Thornton could be bigger threats and see McGrane as having a great chance of making top 3.
It will be interesting to see how he gets on.
flat out with work and my wee fellas birthday so only got round to looking at my bets there now.
Last week was a tale of two tours had bjorn and noren both placing on the euro tour and duffner and colesarts both missing the cut on the pga tour so made a small return on my bets.
In both this weeks tournaments I can't say I really fancy anyone which normally means I shouldn't bet but hey ho lol overall thoughts:
Irish open - gmac and mcilroy are the favourites but I cant see them winning. There's the media attention they'll get, their indifferent form at present and their short odds make them unbackable. Also got a feeling gmac performs better when he's an underdog and can sneak under the radar somewhat. harringtons too unpredictable but its easy to see why so many have went with lowry. Assuming 1 of the top 5 don't win I think you could make an argument for about 20 different players so I think this one is wide open.
AT&T - again the top 6 all priced 25/1 or less doesn't appeal to me especially again as I don't have any strong reasons to really go for any of them. I can think of too many reasons not to fancy each of them. I was tempted by delaet (he has to win sooner or later given his form) but again 33/1 didn't really encourage me given the doubts regarding his ability to finish a tournament off.
Based on the above I've went for those I see more value in. Probably all fall flat on their faces by end of play Thursday.
Irish Open
Peter Uihlein 45/1 in decent form with a finishes of 1, T8, T10, T12 and T21 in his last 6 tournaments. t12 was at wentworth suggesting uk climate isn't any major problem for him.
Richard Sterne 45/1 only missed 1 cut in last 15 starts and had a previous good result here in 2006 (T9).
AT&T
Marc Leishman 66/1 what graham delaet is to the dart Marc Leishman is to me lol I think he's got a reasonably solid game but just needs more consistency to contend more often.
Ryan Palmer 40/1 finished a credible t15 in this event last year despite carding two 74 rounds. T5 at the players and T4 at st judes in recent weeks encourages me to have a punt on him.
Also did some first round leaders after flash talked about them lol all ew doubles:
Irish open
Simon Dyson 80/1
Robert Rock 80/1
Both struggling this year and just hoping 1 of them will find a bit of form playing a course under uk conditions
AT&T
Charles Howell 50/1
Ricky Barnes 100/1
I seem to notice barnes throwing in the occasional very low round and howell seems to have a decent record here. Nearly put howell in my outright bet but he always seems to waste any opportunity he has to push on any time I see him close to contention after rounds 1 and 2.
Good luck to everyone on their bets this week as always!!!!