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Well I'm starting the week of with a speculative punt on 500/1 shot Zane Scotland.
He's been out in the golfing wilderness for a few years but I picked up on Zane Scotland earlier in the year, when he was playing on the somewhat low-key and lower grade Mena Tour.
The Mena Tour is a Middle East Tour, there have so far been 2 events this year and Zane Scotland has one win and sufffered a play off defeat in the other.
They were by no means high quality fields, but a win is a win and good for confidence.
I'm not sure where Zane has since been playing, but he popped up last week for a first appearance of the year on the Challenge Tour and finished in a tie for 12th and this week he makes his seasonal debut on the main tour.
Looking back in time after showing so much promise, he lost his way, suffering from a number of injuries and having limited success on the main tour, with his second best pay day coming at the Open de France 2008 thanks to a tied 12th position.
So we have a win in 2013, recent good form of sorts and a little course form, I believe that most weeks any of the 156 players in the field are capable of winning, its just a hunch but I think at 500/1 Zane Scotland could have it in him to put up a decent performance this week.
I'll also be looking for odds on first round leader, a top 20 finish or even odds for making the cut and maybe even ew top Englishman.
I know its a big step up from Mena Tour winner to Open de France competing against major champions, so Zane Scotland will be simply a fun bet for me this week, he might only last 9 holes before being tailed off, then again he might just make the cut!
Don't know if you seen it but there's a Q&A interview with Thomas Aitken on the sportinglife website.
For the Open de France, wasn't there a bit off a kafuffle from a few of the players last year, complaining the course had been set up too tough, with it being compared to a US Open set up?
I think there could be a premium for accuracy off the tee this week, which rules out a few of my initial picks.
I've backed one 80/1 shot, I'll decide the other 2 tomorrow.
As for the Greenbrier, I am a bit miffed Graham DeLaet is a best priced 28/1, then again he is clearly one of the form players at the moment and has the bonus of course form this week.
I've backed a 66/1 shot here, DeLaet will probably have to be another pick, so that leaves one more.
Decisions, decisions!
Following on from last season, i'm fairly sure the organisers aim is to set the course up along the lines of a US Open, which means narrow fairways and penal rough, last years stats showed a leaderboard full of players high up on the GIR stats, which I believe was a reflection of the importance of hitting the fairway from the tee.
The only exception last year was Jacquelin who's putting stats revealed he took an average of 6-8 putts less than the other players in the top 10 which was some going. However I believe the rough is even more severe this year thanks mainly to the wet conditions, so even with Jacquelin's short game I'm not so sure he could get away with a repeat performance this year, so he's a late cut from my picks this week, but good luck to those on here who back him.
Martin Kaymer must surely go close, but at 14/1, I am hoping he will go close and have his game in shape for The Open, rather than peaking this week.
Ian Poulter - 25/1, Serious golf courses suit serious players, I'd normally opt for GMac at this end of the market on this type of course, but with GMac's recent missed cuts and Poulters improvement in form over the last month, backed up with a tied 4th here last year, it all equates to Ian James Poulter getting my pick.
Alejandro Canizares - 80/1, I struggled to make a shortlist this week, with the exception of Canizares, who was done and dusted in 5 minutes, recent form, course form, strong solid stats which should help him this week more than most and to top it all, he's a lovely 80/1 to tick the value box!
Gregory Bourdy - 80-1, I was close to Jacquelin and Havret and even Dubuisson who I've backed the previous 2 weeks, but of the leading French contenders, I think Bourdy maybe the most naturally suited for this years conditions. With 5 top 12 finishes in 15 starts this season and a best tied 6th here, I'll take my chance with Bourdy at 80/1.
Greenbrier Classic
Graham DeLaet - 28/1, well he's no longer a dark horse in the field, a player under the radar or over-valued, it seems Graham DeLaet now has the respect of the bookies. In a typical over reaction, perhaps a bit too much respect as 28/1 for a player looking for his first win on tour is pretty mean.
That said, there's possibly nobody with more consistent form, he leads the GIR stats and ranked top 10 in 23 of the tour stats.
Perhaps most significant is the improvement in the one area where DeLaet is not ranked top 10 and that it putting, over the last few weeks, DeLaet has put together some very good putting performances, so much so his strokes gained putting which was -ve to the field earlier in the season is now +ve.
All of the above and a top 12 finish here last year means DeLaet must be the golfing equivalent of a winner that is running without a handicap. The last 2 weeks he's come up with place returns at 66/1 and 40/1 (FR leader) and at 28/1 still looks good value!
David Hearn - 66/1, after being able to back a Canadian at a big price most weeks, I'm not prepared to give up that habit now
Seriously David Hearn is another player who has some impressive stats, quietly impressive recent form and is top 20 the last 2 years here, including tied 12th last year.
Charles Howell III - 66/1,looked nailed on for a win the way he bgean the season but hasn't managed to get the job done so far, he's still playing well and putting very very well. He goes into this event knowing that top 5 on the Fed Ex points list will qualify for The Open, Charles is currently in that 5th spot, so with players like in form Duke and DeLaet right behind him, he has that extra incentive to focus this week. He also has good course form.
I think at the time he threatened never to play the event again.
Good value is Poults in more ways than one!
By the way, having been on Mark Warren twice (last year at 150/1) when a tournament was his to lose and in both cases he completely bottled it and lost, I have a pet name for Mr. Warren.
First name begins with W ends in er, second name Warren!
Very talented golfer, seriously flawed between the ears in my view.
That's probably a bit harsh as there's no reason to suspect he has not learnt from those losses, but I think I'm still a touch bitter towards W______ Warren!
haven't placed my bets yet - holding out as long as possible in case the new sky bet loyalty thing gets launched lol struggled with my picks this week so went with form players
Open De France
Manassero 25/1 - didn't play the irish open and hopefully the mini break has recharged the batteries
Bjorn 28/1 - one of the main form players on the euro tour with finishes of T2, T2, T4 and T18. T18 was at irish open but he still had 3 solid rounds until the 4th round got away from him a bit in the poor conditions. decent odds in comparison to any of those above him in my opinion i.e. kaymer at 14/1 or bjorn at 28/1?!
Nearly put money on quiros at 70/1 but his course form doesn't appear to be too good here. Might 1st round leader bet a few of the French men i.e. jacquelin 50/1, havret 60/1, bourdy 66/1 and dubisson 80/1.
Greenbrier
Delaet 25/1 - coming off the back of his two best results. Surely he has to win one sooner or later....with the relatively weak field this week this could be his best chance. disappointed with odds though.
Woodland 50/1 - seemed to play quite nicely at congressional and his form in general seems to be improving as the season goes on going by his finishes.
ew singles and ew doubles
Please feel free to post any comments about my picks in my absence, I have broadish shoulders
I will look forward to catching up with this thread and seeing how you've all got on when I get back.
In case I don't make it back in time for The Open, i have made the following ante post bets:
Martin Kaymer - 50/1
Rickie Fowler - 50/1
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 200/1
Danny Willett - 250/1
Oh and Paul Casey at 100/1, which now looks like money down the drain as the only way he can get in, is if he wins the Scottish Open next week.
Good luck all!!!
1st leader bets
Greenbrier
Scott Stallings 33/1 - decent enough form with two T4 and a T2 in last 5 starts and the winner here in 2011
Kyle Stanley 50/1 - again decent enough form with two T3 and a T6 in last 7 starts. T9 here in 2011 (only years he's played it) and shot two rounds of 66 and a 65. a second round 75 meant he missed out by two shots.
Was tempted by these two in the outright market too.
Open De France
Gregory Bourdy 66/1 - French
Gregory Havret 66/1 - French
EW singles and EW doubles.
Phil Mickleson @14/1 £5 win
Webb Simpson @14/1 £5 win
Bill Haas @20/1 £5 win
Graham Delaet @25/1 £5 win
Outsiders:
Jordan spieth @35/1 £2 win
Scott Piercy @40/1 £2 win
Gary Woodland @45/1 £2 win
Robert Castro @45/1 £2 win
Morgan Hoffman@80/1 £2 win
Luke Guthrie @100/1 £2 win
Nicholas Thompson@175/1 £1 e/w
After about 9 holes manassero has an 8 on his card, siem has two 8's, ilonen has a 9, poulter has two doubles, olesen has a triple and a double, luke Donald has a triple.
His T18 was at the irish open where he played poorly in final round in the poor conditions which would be a worry as the open is always likely to have a spell of bad weather.
currently sitting at 50/1 but if he finishes open de france well you imagine that will be cut.