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But if you are thinking of just backing Zach Johnson ew (and not another 10 players like I'm likely to do).
Then if the choice is for example:
£1ew on Zach Johnson at 35/1
pays £45.75 for a win or £9.75 for a place
or
£1.50ew without the favorites at 22/1
pays £44.25 for a win or £9.75 for the place
I'd think I'd be putting the extra £1 on and taking the 22/1 without the favorites.
Or split it, 75pew at 35/1, 75pew at 22/1 without the favorites.
Good Luck!
For the win part, your selection has to win or be the best placed, behind the favorites.
Graham DeLaet - 100/1, also 66/1 without the favorites.
He played a few practice rounds last month and has been getting expert advice from former winner and good friend Mike Weir.
Tee to green he has the potential to really attack this golf course, if he sticks around for 4 rounds I wouldn't say it was unrealistic to think he could be approaching an 8 under score for the par 5's.
Much will depend on how quickly he learns where to 'miss' the hole and if he can master the greens, Graham DeLaet could be the first debutant Master in 35 years.
Graeme Mcdowell - 66/1, probably his weakest of the 4 majors, though last year he declared he felt he now had the game to win The Masters, (before missing the cut).
Leads the putting stats on tour this year and has been playing consistently at a high level, 66/1 is too big a price for a big game player like GMac.
Angel Cabrera - 60/1, yes 60/1 is a little bit thin, but this guy could break par around here with his eyes closed. I love everything about the way Cabrera approaches the game and conducts himself on the course. I'd love too see him he get another top 5, but as long as he finishes ahead of Luke Donald I'll be happy :-)
Lee Westwood - 60/1, he has been slowly creeping back to form and whilst Lee Westwood declared that his first round last week was his best round tee to green in over 12 months, he is also showing up high on a lot of the putting stats (which is nose bleed territory for Westwood), so with little pressure this week and a return to Augusta with Billy Foster on the bag, Lee Westwood has a lot going for him at just the right time.
Matt Jones - 150/1, have to back him after last weeks win, he's never even been to Augusta before, so it would be an impressive achievement to just make the cut, but he has the all round game and a short game and putter that is very hot right now. So with a few quick tips from good buddy Adam Scott, you never know.
I would never try to influence somebody's selection, or approaches to betting.
We all have different ideas and different strategies.
Joesman1 posted that he thought there was only 30 players in with a shout, I'd day there was at least 60 players, who could easily win.
Flash posted earlier he was having one bet (he may well end up adding a few more, such is temptation).
I believe the best wining strategy is to have a portfolio of players, back some to win big, back some as 'savers' to cover your total investment, back some because you enjoy watching them play, after all this is entertainment.
Good Luck in whatever you decide.
I know its 35 years, since Fuzzy Zoeller, but I think this year, the doubts over many of the leading players and the caliber of players in the debutant bracket mean a debutant winner is a real possibility.
The top 10 in the list are:
Jordan Speith
Harris English
Jimmy Walker
Patrick Reed
Graham DeLaet
Victor Dubuisson
Matt Jones
Chris Kirk
Matt Every
Billy Horschel
and there's a few more debutants that are not without game and hope.
8/1 doesn't sound too bad to me.
Any thoughts from anyone?
and now you've questioned it and I've thought about it some more its actually pretty poor value.
for example, stick £10 on at 8/1 to win £90
Or have a £1 on each of the 10 leading contenders at odds of:
Jordan Speith - 50/1
Harris English - 66/1 -
Jimmy Walker - 66/1
Patrick Reed - 60/1
Graham DeLaet - 100/1
Victor Dubuisson -100/1
Matt Jones - 150/1
Chris Kirk - 200/1
Matt Every - 150/1
Billy Horschel - 150/1
Yes conclusion is 8/1 for top Debutant is poor value!
Looks like I'll be adding a few more players to my portfolio.
You've pointed out the reasonable doubt over all 4, which in my mind makes all 4 poor value.
Though I have a feeling of dread that actually 12/1 ew on Rory Mcllroy could turn out to be a very good bet.
If I adopted a different strategy than my scattergun portfolio and just limited myself to back 3 or 4, I think Rory may well have been one of my star picks.
It's just that long term I don't believe backing the favorites in golf tournaments is a winning strategy.
Take Tiger Woods at his peak, even then he was 'only' winning on average one major a year.
I'll stick with my bigger value picks with the aim of getting a place at 50/1 or more to get my 12/1 return.
Sergio Garcia 22/1 25/1 15/8
Brandt Snedekar 35/1 40/1 3/1
Jason Dufner 40/1 45/1 7/2
Hunter Mahan 45/1 50/1 4/1
Rickie Fowler 66/1 55/1 5/1
Gary Woodland 75/1 66/1 7/1
£38 staked
After last week, I had to smile when I saw your final winning hand was pocket 5's :-)
Maybe treat yourself to a £1 ew on The Masters now!
Gl all.
It's £20 per team, starts with the Masters and is a decent format that gives you a chance to stay competitive well into the season.
http://golf.fantasyleague.com
Takes a special calibre of player to win the turbo mini!
--------------
Having just watched the masters preview with Channing I've taken his tip and had a tenner on Jiminez top senior @ 5/2.
Didn't bother with Els as none of the panel seemed to fancy him.
Fowler & G-Mac ew @ 66/1 to win.
270.00 €
Placed (matched)Order by Matched Date
Placed (matched)
04:22
Gary Woodland - Winner
04:21
Gary Woodland - 1st Round Leader
Zach Johnson 35/1 £1 ew - LOST
Graeme McDowell 66/1 £1 ew - LOST
Bubba Watson 33/1 £1 ew - £9.25
Jim Furyk 60/1 £2.5 ew - LOST
The bookies made me do it!
I've added:
Henrik Stenson - 33/1, seemingly friendless in the market, so the bookies have pushed his price out and lured me in.
A few years ago I was convinced this was The Major for Henrik Stenson, he's had his moments, but has definitely underachieved here. Interesting to read this week that Henrik himself feels Augusta suits his game.
If the buzz of the years first Major can give Henrik that little bit of oomph (I'm sure it will) to get back to the level he was 6 months ago, it could be another record for Sweden's no. 1 golfer.
Ryan Moore - 100/1, I backed him before he took on the jinx of winning the par competition. Deffinitely has good pedigree around here. Phil Mickleson reckons if conditions turn out as he expects, (infamous Augusta greens at their most challenging), there will only be around a dozen in the field that can win this week, some players in that bracket are obvious, I think Ryan Moore could be one of Micklenson's dozen and at 100/1 is the best value.
Toooo Looooong Shots....
Scott Stallings - 250/1, what a bizarre record this guy has.
I don't think I have seen so many missed cuts in a season, from a guy who suddenly turns up one week and out of nowhere wins the tournament!
In 2011, 12 missed cuts in 20 and 1 win.
In 2012, 17 stroke play tournaments, 12 missed cuts, a withdrawal and a win.
In 2103, 14 missed cuts, but 4 top 5 finishes.
In 2014, 11 stroke play events played, 7 missed cuts, T45th, T47th, T58th and naturally a win!
He's played Augusts once in 2012, finished tied 27th, which included a 2nd round 77, which isn't too shabby for a debutant.
Whatever is it that needs to click for Scott Stallings, when it does click it clearly clicks better than most guys.
I'll take my chances at 250/1.
Tim Clark - 300/, admittedly no recent form, but has some very good course form. Course form and 300/1 tick the speculative bet option.
Sang Moon Bae - 350/1, played the Masters in 2012 and tied 37th, opened with a 75, closed with a 77, but put in two very good rounds of 69 and 71 in between.
He's a very good putter, I just have a hunch that from the 'no hopers' bracket he could give me a run for my money.