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Good Luck
Volvo China Open is very tricky this week, interested to see you've gone for the bombers, my 'analysis' lead me to go for the shorter hitting players in the field this week, with the onus on accuracy over length.
I had Colsaerts down at 25/1 and then crossed him off.
I have also been waiting for the right event for Quiros, but decided this course might not play to his strengths.
But what do I know?
Very little, going on my picks in 2014!
5 out of 6 in the top 20
3 out of 5 in the top 10
Sadly only 1 in a tied for 5th
So another week in the red.
Volvo China Open
I doubt there will be a more difficult tournament to predict this season, with no course form and a mix of European and Asian Tour Players, with a few big names from the PGA Tour.
The new course brings a level playing field and Stenson, Poulter and Dufner must fancy their chances, but the bookies have ensured there's no value.
Rightly or wrongly, I decided that the shorter hitters will not be at a disadvantage this week, so went for players with a mixture of recent form, regional form and players who's game is built on ball striking as opposed to power.
Pablo Larrzabal - 28/1, Already a winner on tour this season and a strong finishing tied 8th last week.
Richie Ramsey - 55/1, One of the shorter hitters on tour. Missed the cut last week, but was tied 2nd in Spain the time before that. If his lack of length off the tee isn't a hindrance this week, he could go very well.
Jbe Kruger - 80/1, Plays a lot of his golf in Asia so will be comfortable with conditions. His record on the European Tour was poor in 2013, but this season his results are improving significantly. Tied 13th last week.
Zurich Classic
Looking at the results over the yeasr, it sort of looks to me as if players who play well at the Masters also score well here. Perhaps both courses suit the same ball flight?
There's not that many 'Masters' players in the field, but based on that theory I suppose Rickie Fowler would be the stand out pick, but at 16/1 I've reluctantly swerved him.
Instead I've gone for:
Ryan Palmer - 28/1, has a 10th place finish at the Masters on his cv, good course form here and very good form in 2014.
Russel Knox - 40/1, decent form here, tied 9th last week, Knox is Knoxing at the door for his first win on tour.
Bo Van Pelt - 110/1, had a couple of very good finishes at The Masters, also played well here, shown glimpses of form in recent weeks, maybe the conditions this week will get Bo back on the leaderboard this week.
One further comment....
Read the form and 'expert' picks and it would be difficult to ignore the merits of a Canadian golfer winning this week, especially if you are of weak will and mind, when it comes to these sort of things.
I was happy enough with Ramsay in 5th, even hopeful with Larrazabal and Kruger in 20th, but with Levy and Quiros, you are sitting there with Pocket Aces at the moment!
Schoolboy error Flash, schoolboy error!
If he finishes off his good work, I'm you'll console yourself with the £'s from a 125/1 winner.
didn't even know the guy existed let only back him.
Well Done Flash.
Very nice win indeed.
Wells Fargo
I'm not sure how much a factor course form will be this week as apparently Quail Hollow underwent a series of renovations after last years event. I've seen the changes described as varying from subtle to drastic, with perhaps the biggest change being the greens which have all been replaced.
Apparently the greens are now constructed from a Bermuda grass similar to last weeks Zurich Classic and the faster firmer greens will supposedly be closer to the conditions found at The Masters and Shell Houston.
So what to do?
Webb Simpson - 66/1, first punt of the week for me is on Webb Simpson and at 66/1, the value button has gone into overload, I can't believe that price will be around for long.
Simpson is a local boy and is one of a few to have played the course since the changes, which has to be a big positive.
After a strong start to the season, his form tailed off, culminating in a missed cut at The Masters. He's not played since The Masters, so hopefully he's been fine tuning his game and getting plenty of practice at Quail Hollow.
Two years ago, he lead this event after 54 holes, before missing a play off by one shot.
Bo Van Pelt - 100/1, I backed him last week and he seemed to stay under the radar despite a third round 9 under par 63.
He's definitely creeping back to form, significantly he was ranked 15th in the field last week for strokes gained putting and has performed very well on the fast greens at The Masters.
He also has some good course form here, so knowing how to get the ball around this course and feeling comfortable on the new greens, tick two very big boxes, which means 100/1 ticks a massive value box.
Ben Martin - 125/1, After storming to the front at the half way stage last week, he struggled over the weekend to eventually finish in a tie for 15th. Tied 3rd the week before so bang in form.
He won twice on the Web.com tour last season, which is not to be sniffed at.
He is also one of a handful of players said to have played the course since the changes, so all is set up for young Ben Martin to have another crack at winning his first event on tour.
Jamie Donaldson - 66/1, I think if this event was in Europe, Donaldson would be no bigger than 33/1. With no local knowledge or experience, the only things he's got going form him are immense talent and the fact that he is playing the best golf of his career so far. He also adapted very quickly to the greens at Augusta National.
He reminds me a lot of David Lynn last year, who seemingly could do no wrong on the PGA Tour, in fact Lynn lost this event in a play off, perhaps Donaldson can go one better.
JB Kruger - 50/1, Last week after a poor first round 74, Kruger played very well to finish a never in contention tied 15th. The Asian Tour regular is improving each week and should again find conditions to his liking.
Chapchai Nirat - 75/1, Goes by the nickname of King Kong. It's a few years ago but he finished tied 5th here in 2006. He's won 3 times on the Asian Tour and recently said he felt his game was close to the level where he can win again. Had his best result of the season in Indonesia last week with a tie for 10th.
Holds the world record 72 hole low score of -32, so when on his game, can obviously go low.
Shiv Shankar Prasad Chowrasia - 125/1, also know as SSP
Richie Ramsay - 33/1, he was going along very nicely last week until he derailed himself with a quadruple bogey 8 early in his third round. I think there's plenty of positives about Ramsay's game at the moment, to give him another chance.
Well I'm glad you are on Simpson this week, I could do with a bit of your good run rubbing off on me.
Come on Webb!
Jimmy Walker 30/1
£2.50 e/w
Be lucky