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17:20
Justin Rose - Winner
17:19
John Senden - Winner
17:17
Ross Fisher - Winner
17:17
Justin Rose - Winner
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I had a flight to catch Tuesday so got my bets on early, I had a whole heap of reasons for backing the players I did, here's the brief summary:
I wouldn't be surprised if Rory and Henrik came away with the main honors this week, but I'd still be happy with a couple of top 5 finishes. My ew doubles are:
The Value Double that Should go Deep
Andy Sullivan - 80/1, He's been putting in some very good performances this season and looks capable of winning. It's a bit of a strange field this week and with many players having zero course experience, maybe this week represents as good an opportunity as any for Andy Sullivan to get his first win. 80/1 certainly looks good value.
Russel Henley - 80/1, Already won this year, he has good form here and just looks too big at 80/1.
Double Scottish
Richie Ramsay - 66/1, Both myself and Flash have picked him a few times without success, it's my turn again this week. I like what I've seen of his body language in recent events, to me he looks like a player with game, who is full of confidence. If that's the case, in this field, he should fancy his chances this week,
Russel Knox - 125/1, Not played here before, but he's one of my shortlist players that ticks the right key stats in a big way. He's having a good season and played well last week.
The Dark Horses
Rikard Karlberg - 80/1, Seeing that he is still available at 80/1 or bigger, I am now wondering if I've mixed my Swedes up. I thought this guy had been playing well recently, with a recent top 5 and he is also one of a handful with competitive course form here, with a top 20 finish back in 2010. I expected to see him tipped by a few people and his price to be now closer to 50/1, the fact that his price has drifted and he's been ignored by all, makes me think I may have been mistaken. Too late now, I'm on!
Ryo Ishikawa - 150/1, I'm giving him another chance based on my interpretation of players that are performing well in certain key stats. I also think this course should play to Ishikawa's strengths and he can also get away with the odd wide off the tee, without too much of a penalty.
Too Big to be True?
Magnus A Carlsson - 250/1, I didn't expect 250/1 to still be available but it is, so maybe I didn't get the bargain I thought I had. If the venue plays to the strength of somebody who is accurate tee to green, then Magnus A Carlsson is the man and of course he is Swedish.
Michael Thompson - 110/1, He's come up on my radar a couple of times recently and is also showing up well on my key stats, 10th last week and a top 10 here last year, at 3 figures, he really does look too good to be true.
Good Luck Everyone!
With many players already having at least one eye on next weeks US Open it's not the best of weeks to try and break a losing streak, but beggars can't be choosers.
I've had the following singles and doubles:
Byeong-Hun An - 100/1, the 22 year old Korean, is playing on the Challenge Tour this year and picked up his biggest cheque 2 weeks ago when 2nd at the Challenge event in Austria. His strengths appear to be accuracy tee to green and he is also a 300 yards off the tee man, so his game should suit this course and I'm sure the quick return to Austria will bring a nice feel good factor to Mr An.
Russell Henley - 50/1, he missed the cut last week, but that's no big deal (well it's a bit of a small deal if you backed him last week), but the point is Henley has proven on more than one occasion that he can follow up a missed cut with a big week, in fact that's what he did earlier this season when he won the Honda Classic. He was a respectable tied 27th here last year, finishing off with a final round 66.
Eduardo De La Riva - 33/1, Having a decent season, making cuts comfortably, though there have been glimpses of a big week, he has not really got into contention, his best finish was tied 10th in Malaysia. Tied 7th here last year, his consistency tee to green and current form suggest he could get into contention this week, even if 33/1 is a little stingey.
Ryan Palmer - 25/1, For the last couple of months he has looked ready to add to his 3 tour wins, he's come very close and his past results here suggest that he should go very close again this week. Again 25/1 a bit stingey, but again beggars on long losing streaks can't be choosers!
Tyrell Hatton - 90/1 & 70/1, Potentially one of England's next big things in the golfing world, I backed him at 90/1, but by the time the prices were up for the St Judes he was into 70/1. Put in some quality displays for his first full year on tour, he already has a runners up finish and a tied 10th. He played this event last year and came a very creditable tied 19th. It could be a big week for young Tyrell Hatton.
Billy Horschel - 50/1, I had a thing for Billy earlier in the season and then gave up on him, it seemed that since then all the people who know better than me also developed a thing for Billy and tipped him for a big win most weeks he teed it up. Billy Horshchel has yet to deliver, but once again I feel drawn to Billy Horschel as a player that is doing all the important things in golf better than most and appears to be playing himself into form. Top 10 here last year to boost his credentials further. Come on Billy stop messing about and get on that leaderboard! I've also backed him at 125/1 for the US Open.
Best of luck this week.
I have been pondering a bet on Casey myself this week, he comfortably qualified for the US Open Monday, so I reckon the confidence is still good.
So come on Neil, is Dustin Johnson going to get the job done this week?
Won it in 2012, 10th last year.....there's surely only one thing that can stop him winning this week.....his first name is Dustin, surname Johnson!
Matthew Baldwin - 100/1, After a bad couple of months, he made the cut last week and just missed qualifying for the US Open by one shot, he reports that his game is improving and 'close' to being back.
Russell Henley - 66/1, Generous odds from SkyBet, me thinks!
Also buckled under the pressure of fancying Paul Casey and not backing him and had the following ew singles and ew double:
Paul Casey - 33/1, as I've posted before at is best he is a top, top class player. He is getting in the mix more and more often in recent weeks, he has to be close to a win and I'd hate to miss it.
Ross McGowan - 70/1, came 3rd in the Challenge event last week, which I believe is his best result in years. Seems to have been injured or not fully fit for years, before the injuries set in he was competing with the very best in Europe. He played what appears to be the more difficult back 9 in 1 under, so I took the 70/1 available in running.
Finally I've had an ew FRL singles and double:
Paul Casey - 40/1, hoping JD gets the win he deserves after his recent golfing bad beats.
Matthew Baldwin - 80/1, if his game is back under control Baldwin quite often goes low on day 1.
Normally when posting on here the rule of thumb is you jinx your player and they drop a shot.
I just checked the Leaderboard and unless it's a mistake, Matthew Baldwin has opened with an Eagle
Just 17 holes to go, 15 pars and 2 birdies ought to do it.
Placed (matched)
Placed (matched)
I was going to get a few things off my chest, but have thought better of it and just deleted what would have been a rather long self indulgent post,
Needless to say I am not enjoying this poker and betting lark at the moment and am leaning towards a break, I say leaning because sometimes this is easier said than done.
Anyway, let's have one last fling and see if I go out with a whimper or bang on this weeks US OPEN.
I like the way this thread always comes alive during Major week and hopefully there'll be a few of us who get a good run for our money and make a nice profit this week.
Good Luck Everyone!