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Go on then, after taking a break from posting, I'm quite looking forward to the Scottish Open, so I'll havbe a waffle.
I've not been doing too badly in recent weeks, I managed to 'lump on' the magnificent GMAC in running last week and I've had a few decent place returns (66/1, 80/1 and 150/1, I kid you not), but whats missing from the recent cv is.... Pre tournament I backed player X at big value to one and he got the job done.
So this week with a links course and windy conditions forecast at least for day one, I feel like I'm in the zone, as I love wathcing this type of golf and I have a cluster of players in the memory banks that I know should perform well in the predicted conditions.
These players tend to have good weeks in windy conditions and / or on fast firm courses, events like the Scotish and Irish Opens, the Dutch KLM Open, Qatar Masters, Ballentines at Icheon and they also tend to equip themselves pretty well at The Open.
So the tough part is narrowing down the cluster to 2 or 3, or 4 or 5.
Jamie Donaldson priced at 20/1 - 25/1 perhaps has the strongest credentials this week. He won the Irisih Open at Portrush, he has numerous other top performances in similar conditions, he's really raised his game over the last couple of years, he's current form is strong and when he stands over a putt anywhere on the green he looks like he could hole it, he rolls the ball so well.
That said I'm not on Jamie Donaldson, but I know a man who is, so I wish him and Jamie Donaldson the best of luck.
The Player Most Likely to Get The Job Done at Big Value to One.
Rafael Cabrera-Bello - 66/1, Very similar credentials, to Donaldson, though not quite matched Donaldsons achievements and recognition in the recent majors and world campionships.
Cabrera-Bello was in fact runner up to Donaldson at the Irish Open, you will quite often find both players are close to each other on leaderboards, two weeks ago Rafa lost a play off in Germany, Donaldson finished one shot out of the play off, Rafa's best finish in a major was last years Open, he was in 2nd place after day one, he has numerous top 5 and top 10 finishes when conditions are similar to those this week.
So at roughly 3 times the price of Donaldson, Rafael Cabrera-Bello is my main bet this week
Paul Casey - 40/1, I like the fact that he's won in Scotland twice before, I like the fact that he's won the Irish Open, I like the fact that he's won in Abu Dhabi twice (an event that Donaldson has also won), I like the fact that he as performed well at and come close to winning The Open, I like the fact that after playing well during a very busy schedule, he has taken a couple of weeks off, I like the fact his off course issues appear to be beind him, he has a fiancee and they are expecting their first child, I like the fact that this world class player is 40/1!
Alvaros Quiros - 100/1, A little more tentative with Quiros, he's definitely on his way back to form and his A game, but isn't quite there yet on the consitenty front. He's won in the wind in the past, he plays well at St Andrews but has not excelled on other Open Courses, I'm not sure if his brutal strength off the tee will be an advantage this week, but he does tend to perform better than most when the wind blows. He might be worth a dabble in the FRL market.
A Couple of My Favourites that can't be Ignored
Danny Willett - 66/1, Danny Willett has been playing very well this season and if he can remain fully fit for a WHOLE week, he must be very close to his second win on tour. He's a quality links player who can handle the conditions rain or shine. 66/1 seems very generous.
Matthew Baldwin - 100/1, You'd think two top 5's in his last 3 starts would be enough to worry the bookies. Southport / Royal Birkdale resident, his bread and butter is links golf, he's even starting to get noticed by a few of the golfing commentators who have been praising his game and potential. It seems the bookies still think Matthew Baldwin is more potential than real deal. He's already having a big season, over the next 2 weeks it could become a massive career defining season for Matthew Baldwin and I'm on at 100/1 this week and 300/1 next week.
A couple of players woth a mention are the two locals with the course knowledge, Paul Lawrie - 80/1 and Richie Ramsay - 100/1, Lawrie is coming back from injury, Ramsay had to pull out last week with injury (describes himself as 50/50 to play this week), so local knowledge may be the best thing they've got going for them right now, but I hasten to add that both players belong in my cluster group of players who consistently perform well in aforementioned events and conditions.
Good Luck Everyone!
Posted by joesman1
One of the best pointers/tips posted on here this year.
It would have been even more impressive if the bloke that posted it (twice) had been on Rory for FRL yesterday.
£5 Westwood -24/1
£5 Oustunhuizen - 65/1
£4 Senden 249/1
£5 Kaymer 32/1
£5 Rose 28/1
GL
EDIT - Didn,t know Westwood had drifted so much . Surely he can,t have gone that downhill in last few weeks
Keep it up for The Open.
They'd all make my shortlist, though at the moment my shortlist is probably 50 players long
These can be a bit like buying something in the sales, they looked a good buy at the time, but once you get them home, you start to realise why they were in the sales in the first place!
Graeme Mcdowell - 40/1, very pleased with this deal, only downside is it's 5 places. He lead here in 2006 after round 1. He won last time out in France, which is a match with his US Open win in 2010, where he won the Wales Open, took a week off and won the US Open. He's a proven links player and says Hoylake suits his game. With 33/1 on offer I may well have a top up.
Shane Lowry - 140/1, definitely swayed by a visit to the sales and the price on offer for Lowry at the time. He undoubtedly has the game for Links golf with a great short game and on the big stage his 2nd at Wentworth was very impressive.
Danny Willett - 150/1, I believe Danny Willlett will win one of these one day and given his current form this could be his first chance to have a decent run at competing at The Open. He got to the top of the amateur game thanks to a lot of high quality golf on links courses. More recently he tied 15th in The Open last year.
Even more recently his form reads, tied 45th in debut at US Open where only run away winner Martin Kaymer made more birdies (one more to be precise), then since the US Open, Willett has finished 3rd, 8th and 11th, the tied 11th was a never nearer tied 11th at last weeks Scottish Open, so no mental fatigue from the pressures of trying to win the event on the Sunday, but must be very happy / confident with the sharpness of his links game as he moved through the field.
So stupid are some of these bookies, I think they may actually push Willett's price out to 175/1 or even 200/1, if they do there'll get my £1 ew post haste!
Matthew Balwin - 300/1, Southport resident and Royal Birkdale member, just up the road from Hoylake. As a tour rookie he played the Open in 2012, where he finished tied 23rd, but for a double bogey on his 71st hole he would have finished tied 9th. That may seem a bit of an odd fact to know, but when you consider I backed him at 20/1 to finish top 20, you may understand why I remember such seemingly irrelevant trivia.
He also has a tied 5th in the Scottish Open and other impressive results in links type events.
His recent form reads, 3rd, mc, 5th, mc, so on current form he's nailed on for a top 5 this week, or would the mathematicians claim a 7th place finish is more likely?
Anyway, that's 4 top 5's this season it's a big ask to get his first tour win at a major, but it's not as daft as it sounds as weeks like this should give Baldwin an advantage over many in the field.
My selections based on research and development (of betting strategy's), will be posted at a later date.
Good Luck ALL!!!!
Monday, looked like being a day of sit and wait, but the first bet of Open week has been placed!
Matteo Mannessero - 125/1 (6 places), considering he has already won 4 times on tour, it seems incredible than he only turned 21 in April tihis year. With all the hype the media like to build around young super talents, it seems equally incredible that Mannessero stays relatively low under the media radar.
He minds his own business, makes a lot of cuts, cruises along for a few months and then suddenly everything clicks into place and he strikes for the win.
Last year he won the PGA Championship at Wentworth, that's a big deal at any stage in a pro's career but to do it at 20 years old proves he is a special talent, with the confidence and belief to take on the very best on the biggest stages in golf.
Last week without really being in contention, he was an eye catching 4th at the Scottish Open, so the links game is ready.
In the 2009 Open, as a 16 year old amateur he finished tied 13th just 4 shots behind Cink and Tom Watson, so he's shown he can handle tough conditions in the worlds greatest tournament.
I don't really understand why he appears to be friendless in the betting markets this week, well at 125/1 6 places, Matteo can be my friend for the week.
Rickie Fowler -40/1, He clearly loves links golf and seems to have a knack for peaking at majors.
Tied 8th at the Scottish Open last week, tied 5th in The Open in 2011, tied 5th and tied 2nd in the first 2 majors of the year.
Paul Casey - 50/1, Last week at the Scottish Open he began day 3 in 8th place, but opened with a NINE, which dropped him down to 69th position in one hole, he then played the next 35 holes in 11 under and climbeb back up to a final finising position of tied 14th.
You can look at that 2 ways he's either struggling with consistency or if you ignore that one hole, put it down to bad luck and you go with the theory he's back to his very best. Truth be told even when he was ranked world number 3, it was only the odd hole or bad round that had stopped him from winning a major.
He was close, very close to winning a major before injuries and once again I think he is very close to winning a major.
Jimmy Walker - 80/1, currently leads the Fed-Ex Cup on the PGA Tour thanks to THREE wins this season, two of those wins have come on windy courses, one of which was the links at Pebble Beach.
He's a Texan, grew up playing in the wind and his best result have undoubtedly been with either or both, windy conditions and links courses. One blip is he made his debut at The open last year but missed the cut, but this was before he became a three time PGA Tour winner.He played The Scottish Open last week finishing in the middle of the pack.
He's had his best finishes at The Masters and US Open this year, with top tens.
Great short game, great putter, in the form of his life, I think the Brits are underestimating Jimmy Walker.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 150/1, I fancied him strongly last week and for a while I thought he was going to deliver on a place return, but ultimately came up short, the positive could be that last week he got in 4 rounds of quality links golf and maintained his current run of form.
Good links player, good wind player, good current form, good price, good luck!
I had also already thought Fowler(I always do him anyway LOL)
and Manassero looked good bets.
also interest in Stenson, Furyk, oleson and Karlson
1pt e.w. Jim Furyk at 66/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)1pt e.w. Brandt Snedeker at 66/1 (Coral 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)2pts e.w. Graeme McDowell at 28/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)1pt e.w. Dustin Johnson at 40/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)0.5pt e.w. Brendan Steele at 350/1 (Boylesports 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)
3pts win Thongchai Jaidee to be Top Asian at 6/1 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor) 1pt e.w. Jimmy Walker to be the Top American at 33/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4) 1pt e.w. Oliver Fisher to be Top GB & Ireland at 80/1 (Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4) 1pt e.w. Darren Clarke to be Top GB & Ireland at 100/1 (Stan James 1/4 1,2,3,4) 0.5pt e.w. Bradley Neil to lead after round one at 300/1 (General 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6) 0.5pt e.w. Matthew Baldwin to lead after round one at 200/1 (Betfred 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6)
The skybet guy made a very strong case for investing in Bradley Neil last night, that FRL bet looks interesting.
There is some history of relatively unknown Americans turning up at The open and seemingly coming out of nowhere to finishing top 5 or even winning the tournament.
Todd Hamilton and Ben Curtis are fairly recent winners and players like Chad Campbell and Brandt Snedeker achieved top 5's when priced at 250/1.
Particularly as the weather forecast seems to be suggesting a strong wind for much of the tournament, I think there's a case for going left field and checking out a few of those lesser named Americans who are comfortable playing in the wind.
Not wishing to stereotype, but that theory suggests a good local Texan would fit the profile.
This is by no means a conclusive list, but Texans I'm aware of and their best available prices:
Jordan Spieth - 45/1 - massive talent and growing name in the world of golf so maybe not leftfield but dismissed by many this week, as not having the necessary experience to compete. To the contrary he declares that growing up in Texas he learnt how to control the ball flight in the wind and has links experience from his Junior days, he's only 20 so that's not that long ago!
Jimmy Walker - 100/1 - three time winner on the PGA Tour this season, but still a relatively unknown and underrated player to much of the British public, so a win for Walker would likely be leftfield in that it would be a good result for the bookies.
Patrick Reed - 200/1 - Two time winner on tour including a World Golf Championship. Not short of confidence, ranked 30th in the world, infamously declared earlier this year that he thought he was a world top 5 player. Slightly leftfield as he is not a household name in the UK and the fact that he has been pushed out ot 200/1 means he is likely to be another one that would be in the bookies corner.
Ryan Pamler - 250/1 - As selected by Neil, his best form as come in windy conditions, he has a top 10 in The Masters, so can keep it together on the big stage. Lost a play off on the PGA Tour earlier this year. Played in the Scottish Open last week, so ticks a lot of the right boxes. Is known to get off to a flyer, so could be worthy of a FRL dabble.
Chris Stroud - 400/1 - Now we are talking leftfield! Stroud has never won on the PGA Tour, but he is close and is having his best season to date. I recently came across an interview where he said he was looking forward to The Open, like many other Texans declaring that he hoped the wind blows and that he grew up playing on a course which was very similar to links conditions and thought he had a really good short game to do well at The Open. He also stated that he thought his first win was very close and was excited about having the chance to get that first win in The Open. Naivity maybe, leftfield potential definitely!
Justin Leonard - 500/1 - Former Open winner, possibly struggles these days due to his lack of length. Still achieved two top 10's ealier this season and has made his last 5 cuts, though finished way down the field. Lack of length this week isn't likely to be an issue, so course and wind conditions will play to his strengths, maybe not the forlorn no hoper I originally had him down as this week and maybe MP33's bet wasn't as daft as I initially thought it was
If the wind blows as forecast and any of these guys are making a move up the leaderboard it may well be worth keeping an eye on them for the 'In Running' market.
Antepost I'm going leftfield and backing Chris Stroud - 400/1 ew first 6.
Good Luck all.
Top Englishman : Justin Rose 17/10
Top Swede : Henrik Stenson 4/7
Top Australian: Adam Scott 5/6
Win Patent
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bet ref: 100/125£1.00 Single
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bet ref: 100/126£1.00 Single
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bet ref: 100/127£1.50 Single
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bet ref: 100/128£0.50 Single
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bet ref: 100/129£0.50 Single
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bet ref: 100/130£0.50 Single
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bet ref: 100/131£1.00 Single
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bet ref: 100/132£0.50 Single
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
Bet ref: 100/133£0.50 Single
8 Places The Open - Outright
EW 1/4 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
My tenners worth, ew 8 places
£2.75 Westwood @ 66/1
£1 MA Jiminez @ 90/1
£1 Cabrera Belo @ 150/1
£0.25 (yes, 25 pence!!!!! ew) Ross Fisher @ 200/1
=£10 total.
gl all.
Added £5 win Tigerrrrrrrrr @ 20/1