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After a week off, here I go again, in search of a player that can finish in the top 5, winners can come as and when they want.
Byron Nelson
Well last week I was in Texas, (as Tikay has mentioned several times, home of the DART) and this week we have the Byron Nelson in Texas, I'd like to think the fact that I was there last week, could in some way give me an advantage this week, but it doesn't work like that does it.
What I did learn last week is at the moment, it's very hot indeed and the wind is blowing and gusting everywhere, last week there really was no escaping the wind in Texas, I believe the conditions will be similar again this week, so I'll go with players, I believe can play in the wind.
Open de Espana
Played on a different course than last year, which never helps when trying to assess the field, but the event was held here in 2009 and is also the course where final qualifying for the European Tour is held every year, so there is course form of sorts to be found.
I read that the fairways are 30-40 meters wide and looking at the stats from 2009, it looked like driving accuracy was not that important, but then read that accuracy off the tee will be important this week, so already there are contradictions out there. Even though the course has been lengthened since 2009, I don't believe its particularly a bombers course, so perhaps we have a level playing field this week, with plenty on names and Spaniards at the head of the betting.
Hoping that like buses, you wait long enough and two winners come along at once, I'm pairing my picks this week......
The Obvious Pair (with value)
Rafa Cabrera-Bello - 40/1, He's Spanish, he was tied 6th here in 2009, he's playing well, he's GIR stats are very good, which should be important this week. Looks too big at 40/1.
Ryan Palmer - 40/1, He's Texan, he lost a play off here in 2011, also has a tied 9th, lost a play off a couple of months ago, has been knocking on the door for a while. All the stars are aligned for a Ryan Palmer win this week.
The Pair I like Most
Fabrizzio Zanotti - 80/1, Zanotti may well become flavor of the week with many of the golfing tipsters this week. He was 2nd here in 2009, he finished 2nd here at the Tour School in December 2013, he was third in Madeira last week. A quick look at his stats and they seem to suggest he is game is in as good a shape as it has ever been, which it will need to be if he is going to get his first win on a course he clearly enjoys.
Ryo Ishikawa - 66/1, Using a marker that has paid dividends for me in the past, I like it when a player is struggling with his game but still manages to play well on a particular course. Ishikawa had a poor season last year with just one top 10 and that came here.
In 24 events last season, Ishikawa managed just one top 10 finish and no other finishes in the top 25. This season in 16 events he has 9 top 25's which includes 4 top 10's and he also has form in the wind.
So the logic is if he can play well here when his game is off, when he plays here in good form, he will do what? Hopefully the answer begins with W and ends with in!
The Why Not Pair
Eduardo DeLaRiva - 80/1, He's Spanish, he gained his tour card for 2013 with a tied 9th here. Usually in the shadow of his compatriots, he has a win on the Challenge Tour which came in Spain and has shown enough to suggest he could win on the main tour. Tied 10th and tied 13th in his last two events, so playing well at the moment.
Freddie Jacobson - 66/1, Freddie I believe, is an accomplished player in the wind and he has a bunch of top 10 finishes in Texas to prove it. He's also one of the best putters on tour and after following a certain Canadian on shot tracker in recent weeks, it would be great to follow a player, where the words 'in the hole' appear more quickly when they are on the putting green.
Proud to be English
Chris Wood - 60/1, Tied 24th here in 2009 in what was his first full year on tour. He's come on a lot since then, getting his maiden win last year. He was 5th last time out and after a light schedule could be set for a big summer and maybe Chris Wood's summer starts in Spain this week.
Paul Casey - 60/1, Undoubtedly talented to the extreme, if it wasn't for injuries I'm sure he would have won a Major by now. He look's to be very close to having all parts of his game clicking back into place and when it does he could win at a distance. I believe he is another that can handle windy conditions, so no problems envisaged there.
Good Luck Everyone!!!
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Seung Yul Noh was of course a 3 figure winner a couple of weeks after I made the above analysis.
I should have stuck to my key stats strategy, it's all about timing with this golf betting and my timing is well off at the moment.
Sent you a pm
Father V
I thought I had replied.....
I hadn't!
I have now.
I keep getting a stabbing pain in my stomach, when I think of the golf from last night.
It will be good to concentrate on another sport this week.
If there's a horse called Graeme or Graham running on Saturday, will I be able to ignore it? :-)