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Tshwane Open
New venue for the Tshwane Open, but has been used regularly on the Sunshine Tour, so there's some course form to be found and from that I've had a bash at building photofit of the type of player that could win this.
Tight course, tree lined, but a short course by todays standards, means I think we are looking for 'ball strikers' and tee to green specialists.
Last weeks runner up Matt Ford fits the profile, but I wonder if last weeks exploits will have taken too much out of him.
Its always good to go local in these events, especially as its likely most of the foreigners will be seeing the course for the first time but for now I'm backing two foreigners that fit the potential profile of a winner:
Adrian Otaegui - 2 points ew 66/1, I'm not too bothered by the missed cut last week as young players seem to have the knack of bouncing back sooner rather than later. Before the missed cut he'd put a nice run of 25th, 12th and 10th.
The 12th place was at the tight Delhi GC, he's ranked highly on the driving accuracy and GIR stats and represents good ew value at 66/1.
John Parry - 2 points ew 90/1, finished 6th last week without really being in contention, so shouldn't be feeling any fatigue on the mental side. That was his best finish for around 18 months, he's been playing well for the last few months, since regaining his card at the tour school. Has the ability and game to plot his way around this type of course.
Valspar Championship
Lots of course form, with clear evidence that course form is important with multiple winners and the same players and types of players popping up on the leaderboards each year.
Kevin Na - 2 points ew 55/1, he was 2nd here last year but I like the fact that Kevin Na finished 8th here back in 2008, when he wasn't actually that good. He's come along way since then and last weeks under the radar tied 9th at the WGC is also ticking a good box.
Harish English - 2 points ew 40/1, got blown away in Florida 2 weeks ago, but showed plenty of form before then to suggest he is ready to win again. Tied 7th here in 2013.
Just because the course is shorter doesn't mean we should ignore bombers, so good luck with Van Der Walt, though you are going to get some serious ribbing if he does win, based on your flawed selection criteria this week
Matt Kuchar - Outright Winner
I'm sure most have noticed that Neil has been in very impressive form this year, I've been looking through Neil's picks and he has shown a remarkable knack for picking out the right players near the front of the market.
I know Neil has great knowledge for the game and puts in the time to study, there is always good logic and good reasoning for his picks, where he and I differ is that when he makes his mind up he simply gets the best price available for his player for the week and job done.
Whereas I tend to skip the market leaders looking for bigger prices and players that might shock and I maybe over analyze things.
I think I do OK, but last week was a typical example of my down fall, my main picks in the WGPC were all 3 figure prices, I had Simpson finishing 7th at 100/1 and Willet 12th at 150/1.
Not bad picks, in that I managed to pick the outsiders that played the best, but no returns for 7th and 12th.
Thankfully after round 3 I backed DJ in running at 6/1 and covered my initial outlay.
I liked DJ from the start but didn't back him as he was 'only' 20/1.
I think I've been suffering from mug punter syndrome!
So here's my Joesman1 double for this week:
Romain Wattel - 25/1, knocking on the door for a while and has been one of the most consistent players on tour over the last 6 months, no course knowledge is the only concern.
Henrik Stenson - 16/1, top quality player in a weak field this week, first time out last week and played extremely well. He should be able to put his trusty 3 wood to good use this week. Like Wattel, no course knowledge is the only concern.
Win only on Stenson, Each way single on Wattel and an ew double.
Still no local at the Tshwane for me, which is nagging away at me, I've been thinking JB Kruger, he has at least one top 5 here on the Sunshine Tour and I noticed he finished well last week, but then again the man in form is tipping Fisher Jr and I can't argue with his reasoning.
Good Luck All!!!
You'll never get me to a live event at this rate!
Shocking start for me in Africa, meant I finally went local and added JB Kruger at 70/1 ew and added an ew double with Martin Laird at 50/1.
The mug punter in me lives on
Not so much time this week and originally thought I'd missed the 'value' on Henrik Stenson so backed him without Rory at 9/1, which doesn't look so bad now.
Made it a Swedish double with Johan Edfors at 66/1.
Two completely different markets this week, one with 3 players priced 10/1 and less, the other event where the favorites opened at 25/1.
Other picks for the week are:
Arnold Palmer
Harris English - 35/1
Kevin Na - 45/1
Webb Simpson - 55/1
Danny Willett - 125/1
Madeira Open
Kenneth Ferrie - 100/1
Gareth Maybin - 66/1
Carlos De Moral - 55/1
Bradley Dredge - 28/1
Good Luck All!
I can't make up my mind as to if I should keep the faith, first reaction has been to look elsewhere.
Valero Texas Open
Matt Jones - 50/1, his last 3 tournaments suggest he's a man in form. I haven't seen too much golf recently but watch last weeks final round and thought Matt Jones hit some great golf shots (apart from the one where he put it in that garden for an OB and said a naughty word that Mark Roe had to apologize to us for hearing it).
Won the Houston Open in Texas last year, could be about to win his second event in Texas.
Martin Laird - 45/1, won this event 2 years ago and has been playing very well recently.
Kevin Chappell -125/1, I had a look at the picks on here 12 months ago and both Neil and I backed Chappell in this event last year at 40/1 and 50/1 (I got the 50/1). Not that it mattered as Chappell missed the cut.
Chappell has missed the last 3 cuts, however he missed 3 cuts before this event in 2011 and went on to finish 2nd.
I wrote last year that the course should suit his game and stats, no time for studying this year, so I'll take me word for it and give Chappell another chance.
I don't go back over the years on this thread too often, but interestingly ( for me anyway), was that I came across Splashies update to the thread title naming my turbo win in the main, exactly 12 months ago.
As some golfers tend to play well at the same time of year, I'm off to see if I can duplicate that tendency on the poker tables and run into form or luck, just as I did 12 months ago and see if I can win the Turbo main again.
EDIT: Came 14th in the Main Turbo last night, probably my best result in that even since I won it 12 months ago.
Good Luck me and all!!!
Those triple dip sandwiches on Man v Food always look mouth watering, so good luck with that.
By the way your Texan in this event last year was Ryan Palmer......................just saying.
At the beginning of the year I looked at this schedule and picked this event out as the most likely for Matthew Baldwin to get his first win.
Of course I've thrown a few quid away on Baldwin already this year, but this was always THE event, so I'm sticking to that at 100/1.
In fact in for a penny in for a pound on Matthew Baldwin this week;
Outright - 100/1 ew
FRL - 80/1 ew
Top Englishman 25/1 ew
Top 10 - 8/1
The backup plan is:
Marcel Siem - 25/1, previous winner and looked good at the WGC a few weeks back.
Pablo Larrzabal - 30/1, good course form.
Byeong Hun An - 45/1, some excellent results this year and I feel this course and conditions should suit his game.