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Think I'd better keep quiet about reading historical posts on this thread, too many skeletons!
I did follow Flashes tip for his mate and snapped up the 66/1 yesterday morning.
Can't imagine it was solely my money that had the bookies running scared, though then again as Neil says, there probably isn't that much money placed on these markets, so it wouldn't take much.
However the above bet is looking good and you now have your 67.5/1 on Jordan Spieth?
There's a new breed of golfer in 2015, they are called 'winners', its been on the cards for a few years but the Tiger era is officially over, the also ran's that tried in vain to compete with Tiger are reaching the twilight of their career, whilst picking up a few over due wins on the way.
Now we have possibly the most competitive era that golf has seen for years, with the likes of Rory, Spieth, Watson, Reed, Johnson, Walker, Day, Stenson, Horschel, Kuchar and even Snedeker all believing they can win each time they tee it up and each player invariably takes their chance when it comes.
The problem is the bookies are on to this and mark up said players at around 5/1 - 20/1, thus removing what punters like me used to perceive as 'value'.
With relative ease I could find a golfer that would place at odds of 50/1 or more, with gratifying satisfaction I could find a handful of winners a season priced anywhere between 50/1 - 150/1, but no more it seems.
But wait, its the Houston Open, a course set up to replicate Augusta, an event where players are caught between preparing for The Masters and still trying to win a golf tournament, so maybe just maybe this week could be a throw back to the good old days when a real good 'value bet' could be had and a tidy profit could be made.
Once again the bookies are all over the 'winners' in the field, with the first 5 in the betting priced at 20/1 or less, (much less).
So here goes.....
JB Holmes - 33/1, lost in a play off here in 2009, 8th in 2012, 12th last year. Two second place finishes this season.
I'm waiting to see if Sky will mark him up at 40/1, if not I'll happily take the 33/1, ew first 5.
Edit: On seeing the withdrawal of Henrik Stenson and the bookies trimming everyone else's odds, I got in quick to take the 33/1 still available. Meanwhile the SkyBet odds compiler is still on a nap.
Paul Casey - 66/1, had his qualification into The Masters confirmed last night, should be feeling on top of the world this week. He's won around here before (beat JB Holmes in playoff) and already has a 2nd and 3rd place finish this year.
Nick Watney - 100/1, good course form and has played very well this season. Last chance to get into The Masters, he could well take it.
Graham DeLaet - 100/1, finished one shot off a play off here back in 2010, that was during a wet week, when the greens would have perhaps been a little slower than the usual 'as close to Augusta as possible' speed.
DeLaet has played very well here tee to green in his subsequent visits but has had far too many 3 putts on the slick greens to enable him to think about winning. The forecast this week has rain on a couple of days, a wet course means a lengthened course and slower greens, both of which would be in DeLaets favor. If the rain comes I'll be in again for DeLaet.
Russell Henley - 125/1, tied 7th last year, one of the best putters in the game, 125/1 right good proper value!
Danny Willett - 125/1, first time here, but is improving every week, unlikely to be bigger than 25/1 in a European event, the 125/1 is very generous.
Now all he has to do is finish top 5.
I literally placed my bets within minutes of the opening markets and with the early withdrawal of Stenson, followed by yesterdays withdrawal of Walker, it means the early bird really did catch the good stuff this week.
Probably should confess that on realizing before some bookmakers did, that Stenson had withdrawn on Monday, the greedy devil in me forced me to snap up the 20/1 ew still on offer with a couple of sleepy bookies for Matt Kuchar.
Getting second favorite at 20/1, makes me feel a little smug, watch Kuchar miss his first cut in god knows how many tournaments just to knock the smug smile of my face!
So with so much value locked up this week, now's the week for one of my picks to get the job done.
#please
[[/QUOTE Oi Oi!!! We have a newbie in the 'winners circle'!! Well done Mr Dart. A very nice return with Henley's wonder shot sneaking the full place return too.
Posted by joesman1
Thanks Neil and well done on your 66/1 full place and 40/1 share of a place, another winning week for you!
rory @ 6
bubba @ 11
dustin @ 19
walker @ 29
all £2 win
be lucky
Well I was like a rabbit in the headlights with this years Masters ante post market, I couldn't make my mind up which way to turn and when I did it was too late.
When Neil committed early to Jordan Spieth, he asked me who I was on, at the time I said if I had to have a bet now it would be Jason Day at 22/1, I dithered and a couple of weeks late Day had won, and he was best priced 14/1.
Same for DJ, I reckoned a fresh and focused DJ could be a deadly combination, he was best priced 33/1 before he'd struck a ball this season.
I was keen on Henrik Stenson, a best priced 28/1, I stood back and watch the value go.
With Rory, Spieth and Bubba, all playing so well, it just didn't feel right to commit strong to any one player.
I will probably back one, possibly two of the above, if the bookies push them out a touch more in the build up to Thursday.
In the meantime, I went to the 'rag' market:
Branden Grace - 150/1, tied 18th on his debut in 2013, if he had matched Adam Scott's 69 on day 1, he'd have been in the playoff with Scott and Cabrera.
Even worse start to The Masters in 2014, where he carded an 84, he wasn't playing well in early 2014 but came back with the second lowest score of the day on round 2, to show that he clearly has the ability to play the course well.
In form this year with three wins ( Europe and SA) already, if he can avoid taking himself out of the tournament on day 1, he could have a good week.
JB Holmes - 100/1, I backed him before last weeks win in the Houston Open, his game should suit Augusta.
Russell Henley - 200/1, same as JB I backed him before last weeks Houston Open.
Missed cut in his first Masters, tied 31st last year, with his putting stroke, you just know he's going to compete around here once he's worked out the rest of the golf course, these youngsters are fast learners, so third Masters could see Henley improve his Masters record significantly.
Bill Haas - 125/1, first round leader last year. He's already won this year, good family pedigree at Augusta can only be good.
Matt Kuchar - 40/1, three top 10's in the last three Masters a relatively quiet season so far, hopefully he's timing his run to peak at The Masters.
Good Luck Everyone!
£2 Gary Woodland - Paddy Power - 100/1
£4 Matt Kuchar Winner.co.uk 33/1
£5 Stenson - Boylesports 22/1
EDIT : 2 more bets that i just think are overpriced
RE-EDIT . As usual on big golfing events Coral are offering a "bet £10 pre tournament on outright winner and get £10 in play" so decided to put another £10 on Bubba and hope Rory or Jason Day gets off to a bad start so the odds might drift a bit for the in-play bet. Just think Jordan Speith has a lot more expectations on his young shoulders this year from last year and will be interesting to see how he handles it.
GL and enjoy
EDIT : Just placed my free bet of £10 on Patrick Reed. Unfortanetly i put the bet on at 55/1 as he was preparing to take a put from aroung 10feet on amen corner so as it went in the price went from 55,s to 45,s.
He was partnered Spieth in the Ryder Cup and there wasn,t much between them. Just hope he can keep his emtoins in check as he can get quite passionate - £10FB at 45/1 at Coral