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Mind you I wouldn't bet against a 59 from Bill Haas this afternoon.
Seems like I've said this before.....
Well done on another great pick and win Neil.
Actually that might be your biggest priced winner this year, so it just gets better!
Have a good holiday Charles.
I'll try and keep Neil focused on picking the winners, whilst you are away.
Course form from the Asian Open between 2004-2008, might not the best way of looking for players who have performed well here before, the one former winner in the field this week is Raphael Jacquelin and he remains an untouched 100/1 shot.
Past course records do seem to suggest that unlike last week there doesn't appear to be any advantage for the bombers this week. On the other hand a player who can hit GIR more often than most does look to be important.
Tommy Fleetwood - 20/1, I was on him last week and he finished one shot off the playoff, I'd decided I was backing him this week no matter what. On putting a vaule on high GIR this week, I checked the GIR stats for last week, last week the player that hit more greens in regulation than any one else...............Tommt Fleetwood. Say no more 20/1 ew.
Tom Lewis - 66/1, good tied 4th last week, another player hitting greens for fun at the moment. Probably won too early in his career, but is certainly going to win many more tournaments and looks like his game is ready for the second win.
Matteo Mannaserro - 150/1, in the good old days when I was good at picking big priced winners (and Neil only won once a month), I'd be getting very excited about Matteo Maneserro this week, instead I'm quietly optimistic.
Completely lost his game, partly on purpose as I believe he decided to make some changes to his swing / technique.
Last week's tied 29th was his best finish since last years Open, possibly more significantly, he was tied 4th for GIR for the week on a course that shouldn't have really suited him as he remains one of the shorter hitters in the game.
This course should suit Manaserro and if he is back in control of his game, 150/1 is way too big for a 4 time winner on tour.
I can't really find any particular area to focus on in this event, plenty of first time winners in recent years, suggests course form might not be that significant, then again I don't think the fields have been blessed with many of the top players.
This year sees the likes of DJ, Rose, Day and Fowler tee it up, so from a betting perspective I think that just makes it more difficult.
Morgan Hoffman - 50/1, seems to be playing well and getting on leaderboards most weeks, he could easily add to the recent trend of first time winners here.
Justin Thomas - 50/1, a highly promising player who is in danger of becoming more famous for being Jordan Spieths mate, rather than a top talent in his own right.
Hopefully for mine and Justin Thomas's sake he can win this week and be referred to as the Zurich Classic champion.
Lucas Glover - 150/1, surprised myself that Lucas Glover made it to the 'confirm bet' button, this was not the plan on Monday morning.
He has started to show flashes of form in recent weeks and he's up amongst recent winners for a number of key stats.
Also has good course form, even when he's come to the event in the middle of a slump. Looks good value at 150/1.
I've increased our forum get together this week and added a Rose, Fleetwood double.
Looking at the tee times I never like to see my players grouped in the same section of the draw as it puts all your eggs in one basket if the weather has a say on things.
In China my guys all go out in the afternoon, in New Orleans my guys all go out in the morning.
So in Europe I've added Gregory Havret 80/1 from the early starters.
In New Orleans I've added Troy Merritt 90/1 form the late starters.
Good Luck us!
Rose - 10/1 winner
Howell - 50/1 2nd = 12.5/1 winner
Levy - 28/1 3rd = 7/1 winner
Next up Matchplay, with a new format on a course with minimal course history, it will be interesting to see if you can keep the run good going in this event.
As for me, well for a while it looked like my 150/1 shot Mateo Mannasero was at the very least going to come up with a place, sadly whilst the game tee to green is definitely there, young Mateo appears to have also decided to reinvent himself on the putting greens and a new putting grip is still clearly a work in progress!
A win might not be too far a way, but I think I'll wait until Neil backs him