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Pieters is a player that's let me down several times this season and to be honest I'd given up on him, but seeing as you are on him along with that Joesman1 bloke who has been know to pick the odd winner, I'll join you and give Pieters one more chance.
Matteo Manessero - 70/1, played exceptionally well tee to green last time out, only to mess about with strange putting strokes on the greens. You would hope (well I do), that he's now sorted out whatever it is he was trying to do with his putter.
It looks to me like this course should suit Manessero, he may not be priced at 150/1 as he was last time out, but even at 70/1, I think he is exceptional value.
Francesco Molinari - 40/1, double Italian this week, again I feel the course should suit Francesco and I think 40/1 or even 33/1 is a decent bet in this field.
Thomas Aitken - 28/1, I backed him last win and his 4th place finish gave me a return. Seeing as he didn't do much wrong last week and won on this course in 2011, I cant really see how I can ignore him this week.
Thomas Pieters - 100/1, either because I've done loads of studying and I think he will won or simply because messers Overton and Strike have backed him, I'll highlight / delete the appropriate reason once I know the result
Rory Sabbatini - 100/1, finished very strongly last week at The Players, for what was his best ever finish there. He has a 3rd here and 8th last year. The sort of player that tends to play really well for a few weeks and then plod along for months on end. Hoping that he's 'in the zone' right now.
Gary Woodland - 66/1, another player that's let me down when I've been on him this year. I wasn't going to back him again, but since the golden one is on him and I agree bombers should be contenders this week, I've gone with the flow.
Sean O'Hair - 60/1, former winner, back to playing at the classy levels his former self was accustomed to playing at.
Lucas Glover - 125/1, another course and distance winner and a player that is right up with the best for many a key stat this season. Just needs to make a few putts and he'll contend this week.
That FlashFlush gets about a bit.
I was just having a quick look at the European Tour Live Blog to see if there is any interesting last minute news and find they've posted a tweet from Mr. Flash Flush himself.
Probably best it wasn't one about backing Thomas Pieters
Edit: scrolled further down the blog and now I get the wit behind the tweet
Sergio Garcia EW @ 5/1 Outright Winner - Open de Espana Outright +4 +3 -2
Rory McIlroy EW @ 100/30 Outright Winner - Wells Fargo Outright-2 -7 -18 (1st)
Thomas Pieters EW £6.40 @ 100/1 Outright Winner - Open de Espana Outright -2 +1 +5 (stats not looking so good)
Emiliano Grillo EW £6.40 @ 22/1 Outright Winner - Open de Espana Outright -2 -4
Rory Sabbatini EW @ 66/1 Outright Winner - Wells Fargo Outright +4 missed cut -4
Henrik Stenson EW @ 18/1 Outright Winner - Wells Fargo Outright 0 -1 0
Webb Simpson EW £4.80 @ 60/1 Outright Winner - Wells Fargo Outright -5 -10(leader) -14 (second)
Gary Woodland EW @ 66/1 Outright Winner - Wells Fargo Outright-2 -3 -7
Rory McIlroy EW £25 @ 100/30 Outright Winner - Wells Fargo Outright -2 -7 -18
Byeong-Hun An EW £6.40 @ 50/1 Outright Winner - Open de Espana Outright 0 -2 -2
Victor Dubuisson EW @ 30/1 Outright Winner - Open de Espana Outright +2 missed cut
Day 1 couple of promising outsiders but Sergio not doing to well
Day 2 rory coming back Mr. Simpson leader and grillo doing ok
Ok ok I'm taking Rory on.... I'm backing them all ew:-
Donaldson 33/1 Molinari 33/1 Howell 50/1 Gallagher 80/1 Ormsby 125/1
25% Gallagher and Donaldson
20% Molinari and Howell
10% Ormsby
I'll also have a dabble on The Crowne Plaza too. Selections to follow tomoz (I've already taken the 90/1 Rodgers with Stan James)
Edit:- Gallagher a non runner. So topped up my bets on Donaldson 30/1 Molinari 30/1 and Howell 50/1, all ew.
Molinari 22/1 matchbook 34/1
Donaldson 33/1 matchbook 34/1
Howell 45/1 betfair 61/1
Gallager 70/1 betfair 89/1
Ormsby 80/1 betfair 332/1
Rodgers 50/1 betfair (back) at 94/1
I have seen somewhere although cant find it on sky so it may have been elsewhere a place only bet. Although its nice when one of these gents wins such as Fowler the other week we are backing these to make the top six more than anything else due to short odds on probable winner or am I missing the mark here.
Looking through results history and stats, its easy to see that 'ball strikers' do well around here and a high GIR is possibly THE key to winning this week.
If you look at where the player leading the GIR stats came each year, you can see for the last 6 years the player ranked first for GIR would have given you a payout:
Ranked First for GIR, Tournament Position
2014 Gallacher - 5th
2013 - Khan - 2nd
2012 - Peter Lawrie - 4th
2011 - Westwood - 2nd
2010 - Khan - 1st
2009 - Wall - 6th
So its not difficult to see why players like Khan, Manessero, F Molinari, Gallacher, Westwood, Donald, Aitken and Bjorn have played well around here.
Even working out you are looking for a player who can hit more greens than most, still leaves a short list of 30 -40 possible candidates, so to get to my shortlist I ruled out the tours number one GIR ranked player, some bloke called Rory and went on current form (for players not named Rory), soft spots and good old gut feelings
Danny Willett - 45/1, now the cats out of the bag thanks to his 3rd place finish at the world matchplay and the fact that he is still 2nd behind Rory in the R2D I had decided I would probably bypass Danny at 25/1.
Maybe I'm blinded by my soft spot for the guy or blinded by the fact that I'm on him for the R2D, or blinded by the fact that last time I backed him he was 3rd at 200/1, but I'm still a little gobsmacked that the bookies are offering 45/1 this week.
He has a 5th place finish here, he's a leading GIR candidate if the rain comes the course plays a little longer, he has the length of the tee to not worry about wet conditions. He has the game and the confidence, I'm on again, more R2D points please.
Shane Lowry 45/1, last season a second place finish in this event basically gave Lowry the launchpad to take his game to the next level and eventually make the world top 50. He had a previous top 10 here, so clearly likes the course.
Branden Grace 40/1, has some decent course form, two time winner this year, he looks to me if he is ready to win a big event like this, if he gets into contention he's certainly knows how to close out a tournament.
Tommy Fleetwood 66/1, excellent game tee to green, I think the only thing that's held him back from winning more often is that he doesn't hole enough putts. Looks to have a similar game as Manessero did when he won here. My tip to be number 1 ranked for GIR this week. Will that be enough for at least a place?
Joost Luiten - 80/1, more gut feeling than the others for Luiten. I joost think he's been close to hitting form, he's had a bit of mixed schedule playing on both tours and many players tend to struggle when they juggle. He was 12th last year, but missed the cut the 3 previous years, so the gut may be playing up, but I've gone with it anyway.
To complete the portfolio I'll probably have one or two Golden Strike savers and no doubt have a dabble in the rags market.
Good Luck All
It seems that for every tournament played in Texas, everyone clamors for the Texans and gets hung up on players who will theoretically handle the likely windy conditions.
I was going to be different, but my first pick here is in deed for a Texan, Jordan Spieth and Jimmy Walker are going to be popular but I've gone for the next Texan in the betting......
Ryan Palmer - 33/1, Palmer is a local resident he has some good course form, he has been playing very well this season, he's up there with the best for many a key stat. He's my Texan in Texas this week.
Paul Casey - 33/1, quality player back to his best, suffered with illness the night before his matchplay playoff with Rory resumed and had to pull out of The Players the week after. Should be refreshed and ready to go again, on a course that suits his game.
Ian Puolter - 40/1, I don't back Poulter very often, but he's been playing well this year, he plays well in windy conditions and in this field he must be fancying his own chances of getting that breakthrough win in a stroke play even in the States.
Charley Hoffman - 45/1, possibly for the first time in his career he is playing some quality golf for a sustained period. He has plenty of good finishes in Texas which can be significant. With the onus on tee to green play, the set up will suit Charley.
Chesson Hadley - 80/1, I've been waiting for a tournament or field like this to back Chesson Hadley. He's been making appearances on some top quality leaderboards recently. His best finish was tied 4th in Texas earlier this year, he won the Peurto Rico Open last year which is invariably played in windy conditions. The only blip is last year he shot two 77's to miss the cut by the odd 13 shots to finish 3rd from last, but he still beat Rickie Fowler by one and he doesn't seem to have done too badly recently.
Decided to have a bash at the FRL market as well this week:
Branden Grace - 45/1
Danny Willett - 50/1
Tommy Fleetwood - 66/1
Thomas Aitken - 66/1
Matteo Manessero -66/1
With pre-tournament talk about what would be the best value to back a player to finish place only or in the Without Rory market, I tell you what would have been impressive...
If somebody had taken the 13/2 on Rory to miss the cut!!!