You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
You need to be logged in to your Sky Poker account above to post discussions and comments.
You might need to refresh your page afterwards.
Comments
My best week 'so far' this year, though with me committing to the Noren / Rose double it came agonizingly close to being my best week ever.
The week before a major are usually difficult events and this week looks tricky on both sides of The Atlantic.
Poor value at the top of the market and host of nearly men and bottlers in the rag markets.
I love a challenge
Good Luck All
Bernd Weisberger has the lot this week, course form, current form, local favorite and obvious class against the field, 5/1 or 11/2 doesn't actually feel that bad, once I've worked out my final outlay I might come back and have a saver on Bernd, but for now my focus has been elsewhere.
Julien Quesne - 33/1, four top 10's in his last 8 starts since the beginning of March, including a tied 8th at Wentworth against a high quality field. Before that his last top 10 was in April 2014, so signs are Julien Qusne is in a good run of form at the moment.
Should feel like a big fish in this small pond this week, looks decent value at 33/1 the win and 8.25/1 the place.
Scott Jamieson - 50/1, having a steady if unspectacular season, he is capable of better and given he finished tied 8th in his one appearance here, maybe this will be the week Jamieson gets in amongst them at the top of the leaderboard.
Lee Slattery - 50/1, Same reasons as Flash has picked up on, he has top 10's here in the past he was a fast finishing 7th last week, with limited starts he seems to be playing well when he gets the chance.
Andrew McArthur - 100/1, plays mostly on the Challenge Tour and is currently ranked 6th for the season, thanks mainly to a second and third place finish in May. Looks a decent price in this field given his recent form.
Oliver Fisher - 150/1, tied 50th last week after a run of 5 missed cuts. I'm speculating the tied 50th was a sign that things might be clicking back in place. History shows with Oliver Fisher that he can quickly go from forlorn no hoper to suddenly competing at the top.
First up I've got a confession to make.
I had a long day at work Monday and was half asleep by the time I logged on Monday night.
I posted a couple of weeks ago I'd been waiting for the right tournament for Chesson Hadley and despite him having no course form I plumped for him a couple of weeks ago in a similar weak field.
When I saw that Hadley was 13th here last year and that was in the middle of a poor run, I rushed to get the 100/1 that was available.
I clicked on the bet confirm and my receipt said....Chesson Hadley ew 100/1, First Round Leader
So I then had to go back and stake the same amount again this time on the outright market.
I then decided to call it a night!
So picks for the St Jude Classic:
Chesson Hadley - 100/1, outright AND first round leader
Luke Donald - 40/1, there's a lot of evidence pointing to Luke Donald getting back to something like the former world number one he once was. He played in and got through a US Open qualifier yesterday.
Going with the hunch that the more competitive rounds he plays the more settled he is going to be, I think 40/1 is good.
Patrick Rodgers - 66/1, he's had a bit of an erratic month, playing some unbelievable golf at times. Now he's secured his card he should be able to settle down and concentrate on winning tournaments, which is surely something he will do sooner rather than later.
I like the fact the he pulled out of the US Open qualifying on Monday as I think that would have been one distraction too many.
Sam Saunders - 500/1, OK he's no Arnold Palmer, but on more than one occasion he has shown signs that he could win at least one PGA Tour event to add to his Grandad's collection.
Lost in a playoff earlier this year and yesterday joint top scored with two 66's in the strongest of the US Open Qualifier fields.
Got to be worth a dabble at 500/1.
I'm on.
Phil Mickleson - 25/1, the combined support of myself and Flash has meant Mickleson's price is now into 16/1.
When you read that the players need to do their homework for this course, you just know there won't be many better prepared than Phil Mickleson. It would be great to see him complete the career grand slam.
Hideki Matsuyama - 40/1, I've looked for players who have a good all round game, decent recent form, shown form on links courses, high on the scrambling stats and competed well in other majors. For me Matsuyama fits the bill.
Brandt Snedeker - 66/1, when I was going through specific stats on the PGA Tour website, there were two players, who kept featuring near the top, Matsuyama and Snedeker. I also like that Snedeker has won at Pebble Beach, has a top 5 in The Open and looks to be putting very well again.
Shane Lowry - 125/1, quality links player with a top notch short game, if he's done a bit of homework and found a new putter he likes (broke his last one in the Irish Open) he could have a good week.
Mark Leishman - 125/1, tied 5th in The Open last year, also tied 4th at The Masters 2 years ago, so can handle links courses and the heat of a Major.
Danny Willett - 300/1, I've been backing Danny Willett regularly for The Open this year, thanks to the 300/1 on offer until very recently, I would be just as happy with a US Open payout as I would a top 5 in The Open.
Remains 2nd in the R2D, was 3rd in the World Matchplay, links record read 8 top tens in 11 links events played.
I'm chuffed to have got my quota on at 300/1, I still think 125/1 today looks great value.
Michael Putnam top 20
£2 @ 10/1.
Be lucky
Placed (matched)Order by Matched Date
I see Tiger is Evens to make the CUT, which if you were in the Tiger camp would also look a great bet.
I can't make my mind up which way I'd go.
Everyone knows his biggest weakness is his driving, reading that the fairways are as fast if not faster than the greens, maybe he can get away with a 3 wood and a few irons with infamous low stingers off the tee.
If I was pushed I think I'd probably go for Tiger making the cut, but I could also see him easily being amongst the stragglers after 9 holes.
Best of Luck with this one Flash.
I saw that Rory said those players that carry the ball 295 yards will have a definite advantage, I read that Monty thinks short hitters like himself will be able to get it around the course just as well as the bombers.
From a few other comments it does sound like there might be 3 or 4 holes that the shorter hitters will really struggle to make par on, the 18th when it plays as a par 4 being one of those holes.
It sounds like there well be a big onus on players needing to pick the right lines from tee to green and sometimes that will depend on accuracy, sometimes length, sometimes a combination of both.
With so many unknowns, maybe the later starters will have an advantage today, as they will have the chance to gauge how the course is playing, from seeing how the morning starters perform and how tough each hole is playing.
I managed to control myself by only adding one more player to my main portfolio:
Jason Dufner - 100/1, we all know he's dodgy on those short putts, but he's one of the best with a putter in hand at long distances.
Pretty unflappable and showed a marked improvement in form recently.
and then I went to the rag market
Steve Marino - 600/1 outright, 150/1 FRL
Colin Montgomerie - 750/1 outright, 250/1 FRL
John Parry - 1000/1, 250/1 FRL
Other FRL bets:
Brandt Snedeker - 45/1
Mark Leishman - 80/1
Danny Willett - 100/1
Good Luck ALL!!!
If he was somehow to make the cut I think it would be an even bigger achievement than his 14 major wins.
I know beforehand I said if pushed I would have gone for Tiger to make the cut, just glad I didn't place the bet with any bookies.