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Looking through results history and stats, its easy to see that 'ball strikers' do well around here and a high GIR is possibly THE key to winning this week.
If you look at where the player leading the GIR stats came each year, you can see for the last 6 years the player ranked first for GIR would have given you a payout:
Ranked First for GIR, Tournament Position
2014 - Gallacher - 5th
2013 - Khan - 2nd
2012 - Peter Lawrie - 4th
2011 - Westwood - 2nd
2010 - Khan - 1st
2009 - Wall - 6th
So after working out that high GIR was the key to success, who lead the GIR for the week an where did they finish?
2015 - Byeong Hun An - 1st
Sounds like he could at least make a good run at making the cut.
Top 6 is a massive ask, have you thought about backing him for FRL or even making top 20?
Enjoy Friday I'm feeling more than a little envious.
Reading about the course layout, the course conditions and looking at the weather forecast, which seems to suggest the wind will blow no matter what, I've gone with the theory that you have to go with players who are proven links players.
So I feel my picks are a little predictable this week, but I'd only be saying to myself I told you so if I don't back them and they go on and win:
Shane Lowry - 22/1, he gave me a place return last week at 45/1, at half the price this week it seems that every tipster, man and dog has also gone for Lowry, its obvious why, but with so much support I've now got my doubts as to if Shane Lowry can win this week, but too late for me I'm on.
Tommy Fleetwood - 40/1, another player to give me a place return last week, he's been playing very well over the last month and so, he grew up playing links golf in and around Southport, with good current form and good links experience, I can't not back him this week.
Danny Willett - 45/1, if I'm of the opinion that one day he's going to win an Open and given that he's one of the few 'overseas' players who have played the course competitively I have to back him this week.
Chris Wood - 55/1, to me another predictable pick, everyone remembers his two top 5's in The Open, when he was a virtual unknown and of course he finished 4th last week.
Mark Warren - 55/1, the mental scars will never completely go from being on WW twice when he had tournaments in his hands and completely went to pieces. I swore I would never back the guy again, but he does look to have the perfect fit for this week and I know he has made efforts to strengthen the mental side of his game.
If he gets into contention on Sunday and bottles a lead again the mods are going to have to be watching this thread very closely as there may be some adult content posted on Sunday at around 5:00pm!
Given that conditions and a links course can bring a few rags into contention, I've also had some small ew tipples on:
Padraig Harrington - 140/1, hardly a 'rag' but the two time Open champion and recent winner on the PGA tour looks too big at anything over 50/1 in my opinion.
John Parry - 250/1, been playing very well recently, on Monday he finished third in the US Open qualifier, he has good links form and played here in the 2007 Walker Cup along with the likes of Rory and Danny Willett and against Rickie Fowler.
Darren Clarke - 250/1, admittedly not done much since he won The Open, but coming off a career low round at Wentworth last Sunday, his links ability and experience this week should be worth a shot or two a round against most of the field. Maybe 7/1 top 20 is a good bet.
Graeme Storm - 250/1, maybe the fact that he won the 1999 Amateur Championship here is not enough in itself, but over the years he has proven he can 'turn up' out of the blue some weeks and contend. He shot the low round of the day last Friday in a top quality field and will have fond memories of this place.
Sometimes it doesn't always work like that but it does sound like this is going to be real links test.
If that's the case, we should also look out for players like GMac, Ernie Els, Westwood and any Irish players, such as Hoey, Phelan and Thornton.
Players like Kaymer, Howell, Dubuisson, Noren, Ramsey, Fisher and Siem could also come into their own, Byeong An was so impressive last week and was 26th in The Open last year, Morrison is hot and has links form, its going to be a fascinating week.
Actually if I was offered one pick, regardless of price I would probably go with Rickie Fowler.
The guy at the top of the betting shouldn't be ignored either.
No Texans in Texas for me this week, so watch out for a Texan play off come Sunday evening.
Brandt Snedeker - 28/1, playing with confidence and looks ready to win again.
Gary Woodland - 35/1, another playing well and likes this course.
Mark Leishman - 40/1, buckets of good course form here.
John Huh - 90/1, good finish last week and some good results here and other venues in Texas.
Ricky Barnes - 300/1, a player that is yet to reach his early promise, there's still time and this season he's been getting on to the odd leaderboard or two.
All this talk about the wet conditions being such a big factor this week reminds me of the washed out 2009 US Open which Barnes so almost won, before finally finishing second.
Can Ricky sing in the rain again?
Nice pick on Sullivan shame he came up a shot short
Alex Noren - 20/1, at first I thought 20/1 was a bit skinny, but when you look at the field and take into account Noren's recent form and the fact that he has won this event in the past, I'd rather take my chances on Noren at 20/1, with a place paying 5/1, than market leader Henrik Stenson, who is 9/2 for the win.
Alexander Levy - 40/1, undoubted talent, started off really well last week, before the course and conditions got the better of him. Last Monday he won the US Open qualifier, I like Levy at 40/1 this week.
Lucas Bjerrergaard - 125/1, impressive top 20 last week which included a third round 66, also got through the US Open qualifier last Monday. A young Dane who might get a bit of extra inspiration from the 'old' Dane Soren Kjeldesn showing him how its done last week.
Bradley Dredge - 150/1, low key start to the year and even though he finished tied 10th last week, I think he remained largely under the radar, which is perhaps why the bookies don't seem too bothered about Mr. Dredge. Tied 25th here last year, so a nice bit of course form to tick an extra box.
Justin Rose - 20/1, former winner around here, with plenty of other good results on this course. 20/1 the win, 5/1 a place seems fair to me.
Brooks Koepka - 55/1, first time here, but that didn't stop Matsuyama last year. The player profile to do well at this course seems to resemble a US Open type player, Koepka was 4th in the US Open last year, he has a superb game and to me looks to be overpriced this week.
Then I was left with 3 players at 3 figure odds, I wanted to keep my picks to a total of 4 but couldn't make my mind up which player to drop, so since the bookies are being so generous, I've backed all 3....
Nick Watney - 100/1
Kevin Chappell - 125/1
Sean O'Hair - 125/1