StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HAND 59: DEJA VU. DO YOU CALL AN ALL IN WITH POCKET JACKS HERE?

StayOrGo · June 2016

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME. HAND 21 REVEALED. HOW WOULD YOU PLAY THE RIVER?:

Hand 21- I wouldn't elect to open this personally, If I was to get a bit looser with opens I'd prefer to do it with a hand like 75s which can smash a big disguised hand sometimes. A7o plays badly postflop and even when we hit top pair we aren't going to be loving our hand. I think I'd bet a bit larger on the flop and turn. I can't see the turn but I imagine its some kind of brick. On the river we could elect to check call his missed draws. However I think given he's called an EP open his only bluffs are going to be JTs or QJc. I think he's much more likely to have some kind of value here, whether its KQc KJc which hit a king (which could potentially just fold) or just a hand like AJ/ AQ. Given that some draws miss, he might be more inclined to make a light call on the river so I think I bet. If we had a weaker ace here, such as A8s, I would probably check call as there are less hands to value bet from which makes bluff catching a more attractive option
Posted by FeelGroggy

Cheers for this Danny, again your responses make sense. (I'm still happy with my A7o open though) :=)

That's not to say one should always open with it from UTG+1, far from it, but I'm just saying that for me, and my game, I still think that there are some scenarios/dynamics when I feel it is OK to do so.

Particularly I agree with your point in blue. (It's hard to get called by worse) and pot control is more important as you can more easily be behind.

BTW, the turn was Kh and the river 3h. Not sure why you couldn't see them. (no flush on the board)

Anyhow, I did C-bet, I made it 8k and he folded. Don't know what he had.

I guess the jury is still out as to whether this was the right thing to do.

Cheers all, for the input.

G

StayOrGo · June 2016

I was in the M/E today, "The 8K BH at 8pm" and IrishRose was moved onto the table, with a monster stack (110K when the blinds were 250/500) She was chip leader of the tournament.

I congratulated her on the stack that she had accrued, and her reply surprised me:

She said, "It's down to your thread G"

Isn't that just fantastic! She's a very humble lady of course, and always encouraging others. I have noticed her game improving a lot recently, which is all credit to her.

If this thread has helped her (Not just my post, but the replies too), how wonderful is that!

To be able to help a fine lady like Rose, who supports everybody and gives so much to others and charity initiatives etc, is just wonderful, in my eyes.

She clearly has read this with an open mind.

Yes, the differing opinions I have with others (and sometimes the masses) can sometimes cause an egoic response (in myself and others) as we seem to get stuck to, and cherish our opinions. I think a reasonable amount of discussion, followed by an agreement to disagree, is fine btw.

Rose has shown, just how valuable it is to read the thread and all the responses with an open mind.

I am so pleased that this has helped Rose, and I really hope that others have found it useful too. I do think, by discussing actual hands, that there is a benefit that you can get from it, that perhaps a standard NLHE strategy book can't provide.

It's a lot of work, I will be honest with you, but worth every minute spent doing it, if it helps friends like Rose (I hope it's OK to call you a friend R) and other players that I respect in the Sky Poker community.

I really do hope that those with an open mind, that are prepared to read this, continue to benefit from it.

I also want to thank the very good players that have replied with their thoughts and opinions, which has brought into the open, a lot of detail regarding the issues involved.

Many thanks,

G

P.S. GL ROSE. JUST AS I WRITE THIS ROSE IS IN 2ND PLACE IN THE MAIN (239K) WITH 13 LEFT. TID ROSIE! X

(I AM PURPOSEFULLY NOT RAILING HER, AS I WANT HER TO FOCUS 100%, BUT I AM VERY MUCH HOPING SHE CAN TID!)

FeelGroggy · June 2016

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME. HAND 21 REVEALED. HOW WOULD YOU PLAY THE RIVER?:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: BTW, the turn was Kh and the river 3h. Not sure why you couldn't see them. (no flush on the board) Anyhow, I did C-bet, I made it 8k and he folded. Don't know what he had. I guess the jury is still out as to whether this was the right thing to do. Cheers all, for the input. G
Posted by StayOrGo

i didn't see the turn card when I wrote that sentence, double checked it and saw it but forgot to edit out me saying I didn't see it- oops

F_Ivanovic · June 2016

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME:

and if you're opening 28% from UTG1 then your overall VPIP must be in the region of 50-60%+ and I can't think of anyone with a 50-60% VPIP in full-ring games, maybe some of the best in the world but even then I'm not sure. I'm not trying to have a dig at you all, and I doubt you do actually play 50-60% VPIP, I assume this was just a time you fancied opening.
Posted by Lambert180

His VPIP will be high by playing A7o but not that high since you are not accounting for times that the pot is opened before you and you have to fold a hand you might have opened. Thus, it's possible that in later positions (at least up till CO) that his VPIP will be lower than in EP. And then it might increase slightly on CO and a bit more OTB. If I had to guess each position it might look something like:

UTG = 24

UTG+1 = 25

UTG+2 = 23

UTG+3 = 21

HJ = 23

CO = 25

BTN = 30

SB = 15

BB = 28

Which is pretty loose, but not quite as loose as 50/60 total VPIP!

StayOrGo · June 2016

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME : His VPIP will be high by playing A7o but not that high since you are not accounting for times that the pot is opened before you and you have to fold a hand you might have opened. Thus, it's possible that in later positions (at least up till CO) that his VPIP will be lower than in EP. And then it might increase slightly on CO and a bit more OTB. If I had to guess each position it might look something like: UTG = 24 UTG+1 = 25 UTG+2 = 23 UTG+3 = 21 HJ = 23 CO = 25 BTN = 30 SB = 15 BB = 28 Which is pretty loose, but not quite as loose as 50/60 total VPIP!
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Not quite true Ivan, but pretty close.

According to HM2. My VPIP's, PFR's are

Early Positions: 19.3% ; 18.8% (UTG, UTG+1 and UTG+2, I think)

Mid Positions: 22.9% ; 21.0% (UTG+3, HJ)

CutOff: 25,6% ; 22.8%

Button: 26.9% ; 23.3%

SB: 32.1% ; 24.4%

BB: 32.5% ;12.7%

Average VPIP: 25.2%

Average PFR: 20.5%

As I mentioned before, due to my lack of calling, my VPIP is pretty close to my PFR except in the blinds. Looking at the stats, I should probably call more on the button than I do and a little less in the blinds.

F_Ivanovic · June 2016

My EP estimates were based on you opening A7o most of the time but makes sense that your actual VPIP is lower given you did say it's something you only do in certain situations.

SB does seem quite loose but the fact your PFR is 24.4 suggests it's folded to you in the SB more than I thought it might - although I think slightly tighter 25-28 VPIP is probably better from there (no idea why I said 15,that's def too low!) BB call looks fine. Whilst we are OOP in the blinds having chips already in the pot means we are often getting a good price on a call.

StayOrGo · June 2016

One point, I have just checked my "Report" on HM2 for Stars, and the previous stats were for all games (ie 6max and 9max, and when seats are open) So they are slightly too high.

I nearly always play full ring on Stars, so not too much difference.

However:

When I filter solely on 9 handed tables my stats are as follows:

VPIP: 22.4%

PFR: 17.4%

3bet 8.96%

When I filter solely on 6 handed tables my stats are as follows:

VPIP: 30.0%

PFR: 25.4%

3bet 11.6%

So I'm slightly less aggro than I originally suggested.

Cheers,

G

IrishRose · June 2016

Thanks for the kind words Mr StayorGo - but I fell short in 4th after all that.

I'm loving this thread - and think it's great of you to share so much of your thoughts/play process on here. I really feel it has helped loads - I'm even folding a few hands compared to playing everything (honest!!).

I'm also loving the different points of view of the other players. It's so nice to have a thread where people can agree to disagree - and where different points of view strangely all make sense at the same time!

Can I ask an embarrassing novice question though please? I've never really studied the game before and I'm now trying to improve my game. I don't however understand a lot of poker technical terms (insert blush like beetroot here).

What does VPIP, PFR etc mean please?

StayOrGo · June 2016

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME. HAND 21 REVEALED. HOW WOULD YOU PLAY THE RIVER?:

Thanks for the kind words Mr StayorGo - but I fell short in 4th after all that. I'm loving this thread - and think it's great of you to share so much of your thoughts/play process on here. I really feel it has helped loads - I'm even folding a few hands compared to playing everything (honest!!). I'm also loving the different points of view of the other players. It's so nice to have a thread where people can agree to disagree - and where different points of view strangely all make sense at the same time! Can I ask an embarrassing novice question though please? I've never really studied the game before and I'm now trying to improve my game. I don't however understand a lot of poker technical terms (insert blush like beetroot here). What does VPIP, PFR etc mean please?
Posted by IrishRose

Thanks for this Rose. Much appreciated.

4th place is great btw!

At the end of the day, it is very hard to win these tournaments (I haven't won a M/E on Sky since 2014)

To get to a final table in one, is a great achievement in itself, so well done.

Regarding the technical terms: (These can be difficult sometimes for people who have learnt through just playing. I didn't really understand these things until fairly recently (When I started using Holdem Manager for P-Stars))

So hopefullly this will help.

VPIP = Voluntarily Put Into Pot (So this means a limp, call or a raise pretty much.) When you post your blinds, they are compulsory, (so in themselves they don't count), but when you limp, call or raise you are Voluntarily Putting Money Into the Pot.

PFR - Pre Flop Raise

3bet (The 3bet percentage is how often you re-raise when faced with an open (initial) raise from your opponent.

(so lets say I raise 20 times agaist you, and you re-raise me on two of those occasions. (Your 3bet percentage would be 10%)

So if you have a VPIP of 20% and a PFR of 15%

This means that you voluntarily put chips in the pot 20% of the time, and 15% of these are raises, meaning the other 5% are either a call or a limp (hopefully we aren't limping too much.)

For clarification, if you re-raise(3bet) pre flop, this counts towards your VPIP, PFR and 3bet stat.

My advise to players wanting to play a similar style as me is to make sure that the VPIP percentage minus the PFR percentage is approx 5%, which means you are not call or limping too much. (In reality I'm probably calling say 7% at the early stages and 2% at the latter stages, but a mean average around 5%, is what I am aiming for)

BTW, these terms are useful to discuss, but don't worry too much if you don't understand all of the "technical terms". Many players like you, and my son for example, are great players and play fundamentally on instinct, and do very well. So whilst understanding these terms is helpful, it is not the be all and end all.

Some players are great in theory, but may struggle to apply it in practice.

While others, couldn't explain to you about pot odds, statistics, probability, HUD's etc, or be able to articulate the details and thought processes involved, but just have an amazing instinct for the game.

Having said that, understanding these concepts, can become very useful, as one attempt's to develop one's game through coaching/reading books/YouTubes etc.

Hope this helps,

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo · June 2016

UKPC2016 TWENTY_SECOND HAND:

========================

Blinds 400/800 Antie 100

Chip Count: 70K

Starting Hand: 7h8h

PRE-FLOP

UTG raises to 1.7K, I call in the HJ. CUTOFF, BUTTON and blinds fold.

FLOP: Ah,9s,2h

UTG bets 2K (into a 5.5K pot), I call.

TURN: 4c

UTG checks, I bet 6k (into a 9.5K pot) , UTG folds.

My Thoughts:

PRE_FLOP

The UTG player was inexperienced (he was a satellite winner, who, to his own admission, was playing out of his depth), so I didn't mind getting involved with a pot in position against him.

FLOP: Ah,9s,2h

So I flop a flush draw and I am happy to just call my opponents raise on the flop, and see what the turn brings.

TURN: 4c

When he checks the turn, he looked as if he was giving up on the hand (there was a definate tell of weakness in his body language, although I can't say specifically what the tell was). I bet 6K and he folded.

STANDARD PLAY? WOULD YOU DO THE SAME HERE?

Cheers,

G

weecheez1 · June 2016

In your post you said he was a sat winner who admitted he was out of his depth and you didn't mind playing a pot in position with him would this player been better not to say anything beforehand and would you play the hand the same way against someone with more experience

StayOrGo · June 2016

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HAND 22 REVEALED. WOULD YOU PLAY IT THE SAME?:

In your post you said he was a sat winner who admitted he was out of his depth and you didn't mind playing a pot in position with him would this player been better not to say anything beforehand and would you play the hand the same way against someone with more experience
Posted by weecheez1

Hi Weecheez.

Yes he would have been better off not saying anything beforehand.

However, this sort of thing becomes very obvious to the rest of the table anyway.

(His awkwardness with chips, not sure when to act, way he looks at his cards, double checking chip denominations, mentally counting pot size, way he puts his chips in the pot, facial expressions all giving away his inexperience)

Do I play it differently against an experienced player?

Yes, I fold pre-flop. (Normally I'm not a great fan of playing suited connectors against an UTG raise, unless it's in the first few levels or > 100BB effective. I think he probably had about 50BB's)

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo · June 2016

Not too much feedback regarding hand 22, so I assume most people are OK with it as played, or are getting bored with the thread :=)

Do we need a break, or shall I keep plugging on?

StayOrGo · June 2016

UKPC2016 TWENTY_THIRD HAND:

=======================

Blinds 500/1000 Antie 100

Chip Count: 75K

Starting Hand: 7d8d

PRE-FLOP

I raise to 2,200 UTG+2, and get called by the BB.

FLOP: Ad,9d,3s

BB checks, I bet 3k (into a pot of 5.7k), BB calls.

TURN: Qc

BB checks, I check.

RIVER: Kd

BB checks. I bet 10K (Into pot of 11.7k), BB called. I showed, he mucked.

My Thoughts:

PRE_FLOP

A fairly wide open at this stage, but again the table was quite passive.

FLOP: Ad,9d,3s

Seemed like a good spot to semi-bluff. (Standard?)

TURN: Qc

He called the flop bet quite comfortably (other than the diamonds (that I had), it was a very dry board), so it felt like he probably had an Ace.

I wasn't confident that he would fold to a turn continuation bet, so I just checked behind. (I am sure there will be many people advocating betting another street here, however I decided, rightly or wrongly, once again, to take the more passive approach with my draw on the turn.)

RIVER: Kd

So we've got lucky and hit our flush. I decide on a big/polarising bet (10K), which he called.

I showed and he mucked. I suspect he had an Ace.

Stack back to just over 90K

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Once again, feel free to post comments/questions.

ARE WE HAND HISTORIED OUT? SHALL I TAKE A BREAK FOR A FEW DAYS? PROBABLY ABOUT 4 MORE HANDS UNTIL THE END OF DAY 1, SO I COULD STOP THERE, AND MAYBE PICK UP DAY TWO AT A LATER DATE.

LET ME KNOW IF THIS IS STILL INTERESTING/USEFUL OR IF IT'S JUST MUCH OF THE SAME NOW?

Cheers,

G

F_Ivanovic · June 2016

Yeah hand 22 seemed standard so didn't feel the need to comment

In hand 23, this situation is a lot different from the previous draw we talked about since:

a) our draw isn't as strong. (less outs + not to the nuts, meaning there are some potential RIO)

b) villain's range for calling flop is likely stronger (UTG raise, A high board) - as such, fold equity will be less

Because our range is stronger from UTG, there is some argument to be made for bluffing turn but I think there are other hands we can still use in our range that are better candidates to bluff the turn. Here, I would do as you did most of the time and opt to realise my equity with a view of potentially bluffing river if villain checks to us.

StayOrGo · June 2016

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HAND 23 REVEALED:

Yeah hand 22 seemed standard so didn't feel the need to comment In hand 23, this situation is a lot different from the previous draw we talked about since: a) our draw isn't as strong. (less outs + not to the nuts, meaning there are some potential RIO) b) villain's range for calling flop is likely stronger (UTG raise, A high board) - as such, fold equity will be less Because our range is stronger from UTG, there is some argument to be made for bluffing turn but I think there are other hands we can still use in our range that are better candidates to bluff the turn. Here, I would do as you did most of the time and opt to realise my equity with a view of potentially bluffing river if villain checks to us.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Cheers for this Ivan. Not that it makes a massive difference, but my open was UTG+2 not UTG. But still early table position, so your points are valid.

I think if I missed the river, I would have just given up, but this was probably due to some "live factors."

The notes in my recording suggested "confidence that he would call a big river bet."

So to this end, if I missed the river, I'm sure I would have just given up, but I had the advantage of being there.

Thanks for the feedback.

G

P.S HAVE WE JUST ALMOST AGREED ON TWO HANDS :=)

F_Ivanovic · June 2016

Yeah, it's possible bluffing river is going to bad particularly with your read. Theory wise we should be bluffing due to it being the bottom of our range (every other hand we have has some SD value) but in practice when playing vs bad unknowns we can exploitatively decide to never bluff (something I wish I didn't always forget!)

haha, I believe so :P Most of the hadns we disagree on though is just me nit-picking to create an interesting discussion about different lines. Only hand I've really felt strongly about is the AdTd hand which is the hand you said you were coming round to my thinking anyway

StayOrGo · June 2016

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HAND 23 REVEALED:

Yeah, it's possible bluffing river is going to bad particularly with your read. Theory wise we should be bluffing due to it being the bottom of our range (every other hand we have has some SD value) but in practice when playing vs bad unknowns we can exploitatively decide to never bluff (something I wish I didn't always forget!) haha, I believe so :P Most of the hands we disagree on though is just me nit-picking to create an interesting discussion about different lines. Only hand I've really felt strongly about is the AdTd hand which is the hand you said you were coming round to my thinking anyway
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Yes I think your feedback, and the way you open things up for discussion is very good. So I am very happy with your replies/comments. I think it's useful for us both, and others.

Essexphil · June 2016

I would not normally bet as large on the river, as your betting pattern screams flush. That said, I take your point re being there and reading the actual (as opposed to typical) opponent.

Please continue with what is a most interesting thread.

Phil

CraigSG1 · June 2016

Keep going, just some of the hands have been fairly standard spots. Last hand for example, played perfectly IMO. Dont quite agree its that loose an open tbh as we cant always open with just a strong range and we are still fairly deep and its the kind of hand we can easily fold if we meet aggression.

Again, river is an easy large bet spot. Particulary with your rep and the way things have gone last few hands it makes it more likely you could have a bluff here. Betting smaller only realy garentees an Ace calling. Some weaker pairs may fold to a mid size bet thinking we want a call and a bigger bet makes it more suspicious so it opens more Kx and Qx hands to call.

goldnballz · June 2016

Keep the hands coming

Brilliant thread. First time poster in it but thoroughly enjoyed reading yours & others thought processes.

thisltedu · June 2016

Please keep them coming Graham. I am really enjoying the analysis that you and the other contributers are explaining. It's a great learning resource.

weecheez1 · June 2016

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HAND 23 REVEALED:

Please keep them coming Graham. I am really enjoying the analysis that you and the other contributers are explaining. It's a great learning resource.
Posted by thisltedu

+1

StayOrGo · June 2016

UKPC2016 TWENTY_FOURTH TO TWENTY_EIGHTH HANDS:

=======================================

Blinds 600/1200 Antie 200

Chip Count: 90K

I can only assume that I was getting tired of recording every hand I played, as the details on the recording for these 5 hands was virtually non-existent.

Effectively, I had 4 hands where I raised and C-bet. 3 coming off and one not, however I got my chip stack up to 114K.

Following that I bust a short stack with a set of 9's against his pocket Kings. (I said in the recording that I would remember the pre flop details etc), but 4 months down the line and I haven't the foggiest, so apologies for that.

Anyhow my chip stack is now 150K

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo · June 2016

UKPC2016 TWENTY_NINTH HAND:

=======================

Blinds 600/1200 Antie 200

Chip Count: 150K

Button's Chip Count approx 100K, Ryan's (BB) chip count approx 110K.

Starting Hand: 5s5c

PRE-FLOP

Button (quite tight guy), raises to 2,800, I 3bet to 8K in the SB, Ryan Spittles in the BB makes it 22K. Button folds, I fold.

Ryan said I could choose a card to turn over, so I did. I turned over a Jack. I suspect he had two of them. :=)

My Thoughts:

PRE_FLOP

Personally I would much rather 3bet a button raise at this stage with 55 than call or fold. (I'm sure some people will disagree, but my VPIP-PFR stats/style at this stage, doesn't really allow for calling in this spot.)

When Ryan 4bet, I considered that I didn't have the odds to set mine, so I folded. As unless I hit a set, it's so hard to play post flop against a quality player like Ryan and there are also so many over-pairs in his range.

CHIP COUNT: 142K (AVERAGE 100K)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Feel free to post thoughts/questions.

Cheers,

G

Essexphil · June 2016

I appreciate you don't like calling, but "quite tight guy" looks key here. For me, it is call-I would prefer folding to raising, as I feel that there will be more reraising (by 1 of the 2 remaining players) than folding in this spot.

weecheez1 · June 2016

I agree with Phil a call could of made set mining possible ryan raise might not of been so large

StayOrGo · June 2016

Thanks for the feedback guys.

I think this is one where we have to agree to differ. With just Ryan to act after me, I think I will take the pot down pre flop often enough to make 3betting viable.

If my 3bet is called, a c-bet will succeed on a lot of flops

This spot is completely down to styles imo. Calling would be, I'm sure, the most common play, however for my "style" it is not even a consideration.

This may appear "wrong" to some people, however, I am completely happy with how I played this hand.

So whilst I take peoples thoughts onboard, years of experience of these situations has determined, that for someone with my style, this is the best play in this spot.

Having said the above, I do also believe that for people who have differing styles, calling may best for them.

Cheers,

G

Phantom66 · June 2016

I'm with you on this one Graham.

Excellent chance of isolating the raiser and the aggression pre giving you 2 ways to win post flop

Just ul that Ryan appears to have a hand in the BB

CraigSG1 · June 2016

Im again with you. I think this is firmly in the fold or reraise catagory. Not only is it another one of these hands where if we get 4 bet we can easily fold this and it has the added benefit that we are raising from a precieved strong position, ie the SB. We are saying we have a hand we want to play even though we know we will be OOP so therefore we must be very strong. Its a position where we are rarely going to get bluff 4 bet and we can as Graham said take it down a lot of the time with a C bet and if we do happen to flop a set then it will be so disguised we could do serious damage to an opponents stack.

StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HAND 59: DEJA VU. DO YOU CALL AN ALL IN WITH POCKET JACKS HERE?

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