StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: HAND 59: DEJA VU. DO YOU CALL AN ALL IN WITH POCKET JACKS HERE?

FeelGroggy

Gah I replied but lost it again because i wasn't logged in.

Hand 17, I would bet this as a default and If I was to check AQ here it would probably be with AxQd. Having checked the flop i like betting two streets for value.

Hand 18- oops

Hand 19 seems like you made the best out of an awkward situation. If Neil bets It's really gross for us I'm not sure what the best play would be. 

I had a similar one where I went to open the cut off with A5o and put in raising chips, the dealer then asked what my action was and i glanced to my right and saw what I thought was UTG with chips in the pot. I panicked and declared call. Only then did I realise UTG hadn't put chips in the pot and I'd just got confused. So i had just open limped with ace 5. The BB then isolated me quite big so i just folded.

MAXALLY

Not going to comment on hands but will just mention the following....

 but I had my headphones on, and as such, I didn't hear him announce, raise, or how much.

(Sad fact, I am so superstitious, that I never like to bet 13 hundred, so I made it 14 hundred, where in fact, 13 hundred would be more in line with my style. Still having therapy to get over this, along with my standard OCD of always having to have my chips up the "right" way. 

I can tell from the above two sentences from your latest updates to your thread, that you may need to focus more when playing live. I hope you don't take that as a criticism in any way but hopefully can see that it would improve your game if you focussed on each and every hand. I know that is easier said then done but I honestly don't understand how players miss action/miss read their hands so often on the live circuit. 

I played a live GPS game the other week where I actually used this to my advantage. Young kid with head phones on and always chatting to his mates 3 tables away or on his mobile constantly. I stole so many pots off him in position when I would say raise to the dealer which he always missed the action. 

Just food for thought, not trying to lecture a much more experienced live player than me. BTW, I read this thread intensely before I played...it did help! Unfortunately, I fell short of day 2 in the comp by about 10 mins from end of play on day one trying to spin up an average stack.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

Not going to comment on hands but will just mention the following....  but I had my headphones on, and as such, I didn't hear him announce, raise, or how much. (Sad fact, I am so superstitious, that I never like to bet 13 hundred, so I made it 14 hundred, where in fact, 13 hundred would be more in line with my style. Still having therapy to get over this, along with my standard OCD of always having to have my chips up the "right" way.  I can tell from the above two sentences from your latest updates to your thread, that you may need to focus more when playing live. I hope you don't take that as a criticism in any way but hopefully can see that it would improve your game if you focussed on each and every hand. I know that is easier said then done but I honestly don't understand how players miss action/miss read their hands so often on the live circuit.  I played a live GPS game the other week where I actually used this to my advantage. Young kid with head phones on and always chatting to his mates 3 tables away or on his mobile constantly. I stole so many pots off him in position when I would say raise to the dealer which he always missed the action.  Just food for thought, not trying to lecture a much more experienced live player than me. BTW, I read this thread intensely before I played...it did help! Unfortunately, I fell short of day 2 in the comp by about 10 mins from end of play on day one trying to spin up an average stack.
Posted by MAXALLY

Hi Max, thanks for the feedback. Firstly I am thrilled that you found that this thread helped your game.

For some it may be an enjoyable read, for others, not particularly interesting, but for some that persevere reading it in detail, there may just be a few nuggets of useful information.

It was always a hope of mine, that it may help some people with their games. (And also help my game with the feedback received and ensuing discussions.)

Regarding my focus at the table, clearly with these two errors in close proximity, my focus was off. I will say the following in my defense however:

• When I listen to my headphones, it is music that helps me to focus.
• I always make sure I have observed everyone at the table in detail before playing my music.
• If a new person comes to the table, the headphones come off while I observe them.
• I study people in detail (I often get comments like, "Why are you staring at me like that"
• I do stare at people, not to intimidate, but too observe. I make mental notes of the following:
• Blink rates, micro-expressions, apex timings, (how long they look at their cards for), if they double check their hand etc.
• I also get a baseline of their natural demeanour, sometimes helping later on with a gut decision.

I am by no means and expert at these things, but I am getting better as I play more live.

The "one chip" thing being a raise or a call, does catch me out sometimes, and I have to take my headphones off and ask if it's a call or raise and how much.

Why I made these two mistakes so close together I'm not sure. Could be a combination of factors like tiredness, being flustered, lack of concentration.

Whilst I make no excuse for myself here, I will say that even the most diligent of live poker players will make fundamental mistakes like this occasionally (if they play enough), but I put my hands up, two like this so close together is pretty poor.

However, I'm prepared to admit it, and am happy to divulge my short-comings. Hopefully that may give me more incentive to pay closer attention next time.

Regarding the superstition, whilst true, it was more of a light-hearted anecdote than anything to be taken seriously.

Cheers,

G

HENDRIK62

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY : Hi Max, thanks for the feedback. Firstly I am thrilled that you found that this thread helped your game. For some it may be an enjoyable read, for others, not particularly interesting, but for some that persevere reading it in detail, there may just be a few nuggets of useful information. It was always a hope of mine, that it may help some people with their games. (And also help my game with the feedback received and ensuing discussions.) Regarding my focus at the table, clearly with these two errors in close proximity, my focus was off. I will say the following in my defense however: When I listen to my headphones, it is music that helps me to focus. I always make sure I have observed everyone at the table in detail before playing my music. If a new person comes to the table, the headphones come off while I observe them. I study people in detail (I often get comments like, "Why are you staring at me like that" I do stare at people, not to intimidate, but too observe. I make mental notes of the following: Blink rates, micro-expressions, apex timings, (how long they look at their cards for), if they double check their hand etc. I also get a baseline of their natural demeanour, sometimes helping later on with a gut decision. I am by no means and expert at these things, but I am getting better as I play more live. The "one chip" thing being a raise or a call, does catch me out sometimes, and I have to take my headphones off and ask if it's a call or raise and how much. Why I made these two mistakes so close together I'm not sure. Could be a combination of factors like tiredness, being flustered, lack of concentration. Whilst I make no excuse for myself here, I will say that even the most diligent of live poker players will make fundamental mistakes like this occasionally (if they play enough), but I put my hands up, two like this so close together is pretty poor. However, I'm prepared to admit it, and am happy to divulge my short-comings. Hopefully that may give me more incentive to pay closer attention next time. Regarding the superstition, whilst true, it was more of a light-hearted anecdote than anything to be take seriously. Cheers, G
Posted by StayOrGo

This is a great thread Graham, I am really enjoying it, not commenting but definitely learning.

I got caught out at DTD in the same tourney, making a 'similar' mistake on my BB, it was min raised in cut off, button and SB called, just as I was paying for a drink. I quickly looked for chips to call, didn't have the right combo so layed out a couple of chips looking for change and ended up min raising into 3 players, which of course got some odd looks.....can't even remember my exact hand, but when OR c-bet, button and SB folded, so i stabbed with a reraise and he folded quicker than Usain Bolt.....the power of confusion LOL.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** LETS GET THE **** OUT THE WAY. HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** LETS GET THE **** OUT THE WAY. HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY : So there's 8.8k on the turn. I think I would go in the region of 6k-6.5k and apply pressure to his non jack hands and build the pot for when we make our flush / straight. A queen is a river I would choose to triple barrel here, if my turn bet was called. It's a card that's not good for many of Neil's hand's and having a ten reduces the chance he has a straight (although that is unlikely anyway) I think Neil would be hard pressed to think of many hands we could have that would play as bet bet bet here and be bluffs, given that the board is really connected.
Posted by FeelGroggy

Thx for this Danny.

Yes, it's a tricky one on the turn. Clearly he would have folded, but we can't really expect him to have 3x here very often, and the board is well in his range, as a lot of BB calling combo's have a decent piece of this board. Neil is definately capable of calling another street against me without top pair.

I can clearly see the merits of a big bet, but against his range and the meta game, I felt checking for the free card, was the best option. Of course, having then checked, a river bet looks bluffy.

Thanks for the feedback.

G

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

hi graham just see this thread a good thread at that posting hands and answering questiosn on how others would play the hand on the seventeenth hand u had a q ss  can i ask why u didnt c-bet the flop here i would imo  that last hand u posted i like your play id probably double barrel here but if called deffo give up on the river
Posted by IDONKCALLU

Hi IDONKCALLU.

So hand 17, why didn't I C-bet? I can't really explain it any better than I did in the hand analysis. I have pasted it again here. In hindsight this was probably a mistake, however he may have floated the flop with 99, so, I could have ended up losing even more had I led out on the flop :=)

HAND 17 POST FLOP

Well the first thing people are probably thinking is, "Why didn't I C-bet the flop?" This clearly would be the "normal course of action". The truth is, I thought they'd probably fold, and decided to check to perhaps get them to bluff or to get a turn bet paid.

I do tend to mix up how I play these hands in these spots, as the thought of not getting paid for my hand is always lurking in the back on my mind, so I will often take a chance at being outdrawn to keep worse hands in.

I don't really know, whether this was right, there was a sense of loss after the previous hand, and I wanted to maximise any potential chip gain.

I hope this sufficiently answers your question?

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

Hand 18 I would check the river with there being a 4 flush on board. Sorry, couldn't resist! :P  I think hand 17 I would always bet flop with us having a BDNFD since there are more runouts where we can get 3 streets of value (and it is disguised too) With another AQ hand (eg. AhQh) I'd be happy to check for deception/balance and be happy to get 2 streets of value on turn & river. Hand 19 there is zero value in a river bet IMO: can't see any worse hands calling here. Hand 20 I agree with FeelGroggy. I would definitely be barrelling this turn - it's a great card for us - we can fold out his 7x (and any worse) and build a nice pot in-case we hit our flush or straight. Qs is a card I would be triple barrelling with too. As played after you check turn I would go for a river bet.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Hi Ivan, thanks for this feedback.

I guess I've just had so many triple barrell bluffs go horribly wrong, that I tend not to do it too much now.

Like you say, if I bet the turn and miss (which I did). I probably would have felt duty bound to fire another barrel, which I am reluctant to do.

I think a lot of triple barreling ends in tears, so whilst there is room for it in my game, I try not to over do it.

With Neil having 63s here, it clearly would have worked, but against his range, I'm not so sure. I will however take your's and Groggy's thoughts onboard, and reflect upon them in due course.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

Gah I replied but lost it again because i wasn't logged in. Hand 17, I would bet this as a default and If I was to check AQ here it would probably be with AxQd. Having checked the flop i like betting two streets for value. Hand 18- oops Hand 19 seems like you made the best out of an awkward situation. If Neil bets It's really gross for us I'm not sure what the best play would be.  I had a similar one where I went to open the cut off with A5o and put in raising chips, the dealer then asked what my action was and i glanced to my right and saw what I thought was UTG with chips in the pot. I panicked and declared call. Only then did I realise UTG hadn't put chips in the pot and I'd just got confused. So i had just open limped with ace 5. The BB then isolated me quite big so i just folded.
Posted by FeelGroggy

Thanks for this Danny. I do think mistakes like this happen to the best of us.

I think covered your responses here in my replies to Ivan and IDONKCALLU.

Cheers for the feedback.

G

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY : This is a great thread Graham, I am really enjoying it, not commenting but definitely learning. I got caught out at DTD in the same tourney, making a 'similar' mistake on my BB, it was min raised in cut off, button and SB called, just as I was paying for a drink. I quickly looked for chips to call, didn't have the right combo so layed out a couple of chips looking for change and ended up min raising into 3 players, which of course got some odd looks.....can't even remember my exact hand, but when OR c-bet, button and SB folded, so i stabbed with a reraise and he folded quicker than Usain Bolt.....the power of confusion LOL.
Posted by HENDRIK62

Great that you are finding this thread useful HENDRIK!

Yes I do think little lapses of concentration can occur, in both online and live. But particularly live. Sometimes this can work in our favour, but I wouldn't recommend it in general :=)

One point I will make. My ex-girlfriend was convinced that I played more solid, with a better diet.

I think things like pasta are good, not too much sugar. I'm not an expert on food types, but I know a lot of pro's have dieticians, so there's probably something in it.

Currently my diet is terrible (no girlfriend to cook me healthy meals), and I am sure it does effect my game, but it's difficult to quantify where and when.

Just a thought. I think it is really hard in the multi-day MTT's to play for 12+ hours a day and never lose focus. A good diet may help. :=)

All the best in your games, hope this thread continues to assist you.

Cheers,

G

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY : Hi Ivan, thanks for this feedback. I guess I've just had so many triple barrell bluffs go horribly wrong, that I tend not to do it too much now. Like you say, if I bet the turn and miss (which I did). I probably would have felt duty bound to fire another barrel, which I am reluctant to do. I think a lot of triple barreling ends in tears, so whilst there is room for it in my game, I try not to over do it. With Neil having 63s here, it clearly would have worked, but against his range, I'm not so sure. I will however take your's and Groggy's thoughts onboard, and reflect upon them in due course. Cheers, G
Posted by StayOrGo

Hi, I understand your point on triple barrel bluffs - they can definitely be a high variance play and in a tournament we generally want to avoid high variance spots and focus on the low variance spots like blind stealing/c-betting and value betting. 

However, with this particular hand (having a FD/gutshot for implied odds and overcard which might be good) our hand has plenty of equity vs a lot of Neil's range that it barely needs any fold equity at all for the turn bet to be profitable outright (without even having to ever consider triple barrel bluffing) - and building a pot in case we hit our flush or straight is going to mean we can get a lot more value on the river if we hit (particularly if Neil sees it as a scare card and decides to bluff it) In fact I would go as far to say it's a pretty big mistake to not be betting the turn here.

I think I would still triple barrel in this spot had I bet the turn (especially if you are rarely double barrel bluffing turn) because you will have so much value and almost no bluffs that he can only really call with 2 pair+. (and obviously Neil being a good player makes this better - against an unknown, I would be more happy to just give up but we know he is capable of folding a good pair like QT or KJ/AJ here) but I wouldn't think it's much of a mistake to give up firing a third barrel here either.

StayOrGo

Regarding my earlier post (reply to MAXALLY) and the following:

Blink rates, micro-expressions, apex timings, (how long they look at their cards for), if they double check their hand etc.

I'm by no means an expert on live tells, however I have watched a few YouTube clips and applied them to my game.

If anyone wants my thoughts on, blink rate, apex timings, micro expressions, please reply to this post.

Also there is a great series called "Lie To Me" staring Tim Roth. Not only is it entertaining, but also, quite useful for Poker Players new to the live scene. It always starts with different faces and micro-expressions with their perceived meaning. (I quite often keep reviewing the first 2mins of expressions before the actual programme starts)

A micro-expression is an "involuntary" momentry response/facial movement, that corresponds to an emotion. (Lasts about a tenth of a second)

Even some of the best poker players, give information away like this.

If people try to fake a micro expression, they can't do it, as when they do, the expression lasts too long.

So you have to be quick to catch them, and if you see them too easily, they are probably fake.

For this reason, when the flop is dealt, I don't look at it. i just look at my opponent. This has a two-fold advantage, as I can't give anything away until I look at the flop, and I may also see a "tell" in my opponent when he "reacts" to the flop.

Same procedure on turn and river.

Cheers,

G

markycash

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

Regarding my earlier post (reply to MAXALLY) and the following: Blink rates, micro-expressions, apex timings, (how long they look at their cards for), if they double check their hand etc. I'm by no means an expert on live tells, however I have watched a few YouTube clips and applied them to my game. If anyone wants my thoughts on, blink rate, apex timings, micro expressions, please reply to this post. Also there is a great series called "Lie To Me" staring Tim Roth. Not only is it entertaining, but also, quite useful for Poker Players new to the live scene. It always starts with different faces and micro-expressions with their perceived meaning. (I quite often keep reviewing the first 2mins of expressions before the actual programme starts) A micro-expression is an "involuntary" momentry response/facial movement, that corresponds to an emotion. (Lasts about a tenth of a second) Even some of the best poker players, give information away like this. If people try to fake a micro expression, they can't do it, as when they do, the expression lasts too long. So you have to be quick to catch them, and if you see them too easily, they are probably fake. For this reason, when the flop is dealt, I don't look at it. i just look at my opponent. This has a two-fold advantage, as I can't give anything away until I look at the flop, and I may also see a "tell" in my opponent when he "reacts" to the flop. Same procedure on turn and river. Cheers, G
Posted by StayOrGo

It is smart to pay attention to these things. Roughly 93% of communication between people is non-verbal so body language is a very important factor to consider when trying to work out an opponent.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY : Hi, I understand your point on triple barrel bluffs - they can definitely be a high variance play and in a tournament we generally want to avoid high variance spots and focus on the low variance spots like blind stealing/c-betting and value betting.  However, with this particular hand (having a FD/gutshot for implied odds and overcard which might be good) our hand has plenty of equity vs a lot of Neil's range that it barely needs any fold equity at all for the turn bet to be profitable outright (without even having to ever consider triple barrel bluffing) - and building a pot in case we hit our flush or straight is going to mean we can get a lot more value on the river if we hit (particularly if Neil sees it as a scare card and decides to bluff it) In fact I would go as far to say it's a pretty big mistake to not be betting the turn here. I think I would still triple barrel in this spot had I bet the turn (especially if you are rarely double barrel bluffing turn) because you will have so much value and almost no bluffs that he can only really call with 2 pair+. (and obviously Neil being a good player makes this better - against an unknown, I would be more happy to just give up but we know he is capable of folding a good pair like QT or KJ/AJ here) but I wouldn't think it's much of a mistake to give up firing a third barrel here either.
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Thanks for this Ivan.

Regarding the above in blue, you may well be right.

Despite my aggressive play in general, my main philosophy in high stakes MTT's is "DON'T LOSE A BIG POT."

Sounds obvious I know, but I try to play "Small Ball" and pick up lots of small pots, hopefully being the right side of a cooler now and then, and later stages racing when I have to.

So on the way I would rather, in general fold when ahead, than call when behind (pot odds dependant of course). I also take this further, in so much as, I am less likely to make high variance plays like this early on. (unless it's a low stakes online game)

I may be being too risk averse here, you could well be right. I'm still thinking about it tbh, but you make some good points, particularly about building the pot in case I hit. My concern on this aspect, is whether we have enough of a fold equity/equity if we hit combo. Let's say his "average range" is JQ here. We are only 35% to hit our over, gut shot, flush or Ace on the river, is that enough? Regarding fold equity on the turn, difficult to say for sure, but I would expect it to be less than 40%(against a balanced range). Is this combo high enough to make betting the turn the "right" play at this stage of the tournament? The board just looks "SO WET" and so much "IN NEILS'S RANGE" to me.

I would like to know what Neil's point of view would be here (whether, being me, he thinks I should bet the turn)

I doubt he has read this thread, but if you do Neil, I'm sure several people would love to hear your thoughts on this.

I think most aggressive players would say, "Bet the turn" and potentially "Bluff the River", however in some spots, I am not as aggressive as people may think. This may be one of those.

As I said before, your argument is convincing, and I am still contemplating it in my own mind.

Thanks for the feedback.

Cheers,

G 

DustoLucko

Great thread G, have been thoroughly enjoying it. Haven't been able to find anywhere to weigh in as between you and everyone else posting every angle seems to be covered.

I find the subject of all the live tells you are looking for very interesting and would certainly be thrilled to read more if you care to share. Agree on Lie To Me being a great and very informative show, certainly got me hunting for micro expressions in day to day situations with the hope of one day being able to apply it to the poker table.. for now I have to dedicate all my attention to the never-ending battle of counting chips!

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

Great thread G, have been thoroughly enjoying it. Haven't been able to find anywhere to weigh in as between you and everyone else posting every angle seems to be covered. I find the subject of all the live tells you are looking for very interesting and would certainly be thrilled to read more if you care to share. Agree on Lie To Me being a great and very informative show, certainly got me hunting for micro expressions in day to day situations with the hope of one day being able to apply it to the poker table.. for now I have to dedicate all my attention to the never-ending battle of counting chips!
Posted by DustoLucko

Hi Matt, glad you are enjoying the thread.

GL counting chips, I hope they are additions and not subtractions :=)

OK, I will detail my thoughts on "Tells". I'll split this into 4 areas. (BTW, this is still a "work in progress" for me, as I don't play live often enough)

1) Micro Expressions.

2) Apex Tells. (Time looking at cards)

3) Re-looking at cards.

4) Blink Rates

I'll go through my "limited" thoughts on Micro Expressions today, and I'll cover the others, one day at a time.

So what are micro-expressions? As I understand them, they are momentary (1/10th of a second ish) "involuntary" movements (often facial, but not always), that typically represent a certain emotion. (If the expression is too long, it's probably fake)

These micro-expressions are consistent between, sex, race, and age, as they are primordial responses inherited from our early ancestors.

(Fear, Anger, Disgust, Impatience) being some of the "negative" ones that are particularly useful in Poker.

I'm just going to cover "Disgust" as this has been quite useful for me, and was my "starting point" for incorporating theory into practice at the poker tables.

What is the "DISGUST" micro-expression?

A reflex motion/twitch of the upper lip (usually on the left side) with slight cheek movement.

Now I am aware of this reaction, I notice I do it myself a lot. Although as yet, I haven't been able to prevent it. I think the only way to prevent it is to "Not feel the disgust in the first place."

When I observe it in others, most the time it appears to be the left side. I have no understanding if this differs in right and left handed people for example, or if it can be on either side. For me, it is ALWAYS the left side, and I am right handed. (left brained)

There are two actual poker situations where I have benefited from this, both at Dusk Till Dawn.

Scenario 1.

I raise with A2o, in the SB, BB calls. (The BB was a quite emotional chap, in general, so that was handy)

FLOP: 2d,8s,9s. (No lip movement detected) -  I bet, BB calls

TURN: 3c (Disgust lip movement detected in opponent) - I bet, BB calls

RIVER: Kh (Disgust lip movement detected again in opponent) - I check, BB bets, I call, he has JsTs.

It was such a great feeling. This was the first time I really went with the theory in practice.

JsTs was exactly what his micro-expressions were saying. :=)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Scenario 2.

I call a 4bet with JJ.

FLOP: A,x,x (Disgust lip movement detected in opponent)) - Opponent checks, I bet (Disgust lip movement again detected in opponent), opponent calls.

TURN: Brick Opponent checks, I bet, he folds.

He shows KK, and says, "There's always a ****ING ACE"

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

It's amazing how these two reads gave me confidence to believe in my gut/instinct/tell-detection more.

I would still say however, proceed with caution on this, as there are several pitfalls too. (After all, the whole game is based on deception, and some players are masters at it) :=)

GL looking for tells :=)

Cheers,

G

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY :  Regarding fold equity on the turn, difficult to say for sure, but I would expect it to be less than 40%(against a balanced range). Is this combo high enough to make betting the turn the "right" play at this stage of the tournament? The board just looks "SO WET" and so much "IN NEILS'S RANGE" to me.
Posted by StayOrGo

Pot is 8.8k on the turn. Lets say we make a bet of 5.1k and Neil only folds 20% of the time (which will be hands like 3x and some 7x hands that don't turn a SD - eg. 76-74) 20% of the time we win 8.8k. On average that's a profit of 1.76k when he folds.

80% of the time he calls and we have on average 31.5% equity when called. So the total pot is 19k meaning we will win ~ 6k (rounded up) Had we just checked the turn, we would win on average 2.8k. So when making the bet, we are losing 3.2k (difference between 6 and 2.8k) This will happen 80% of the time. Thus, we will lose 2.56k on average when we bet 5.5k and he calls. 

Subtract the 2 figures together of our profit when he folds/loss when he calls and we have a total loss of only 0.8k. Thus, for betting to be better than checking we need to make just 0.8k more on the river after we've bet the turn than if we had checked the turn. Given the pot is almost 2.2x bigger when we bet the turn, I think it's reasonable to assume we are definitely going to make that much. But, just to check a rough example:

When the pot is 8.8k, lets assume we make a 2/3 sized value bet of 5.9k bet when we hit the straight/flush and Neil calls this bet only 20% of the time. (Of course he could raise the bet too, or bluff himself - and it might be more than 20%, but I used this low figure to find out the lowest possible amount we might make) - Thus, we will make 1.2k on average here. (20% of 5.9)

When the pot is 19k, lets assume we make a bet of 2/3 sized value bet of 12.7k and again he only calls 20% of the time. Thus, we will make on average 2.5k. That's 1.3k more than we make in the smaller sized pot. Given we lost just 0.8k by betting the turn and gain 1.3k on the river, that's a total gain of 0.5k more we gain by making the turn bet.

You could argue that because 0.5k is relatively a small amount (less than a bb currently) that it's still better to reduce variance and just check the turn. However, all of these are the very lowest estimates remember. So it's possible he folds slightly more than 20% OTT and it's also possible we gain a lot more OTR - particularly if he has a worse flush with a hand like 9d8d where we might win upwards of 30-40k (he leads, you raise, he calls - or you bet, he raises, you shove and he folds or calls)

I suspect a true estimate would be that betting turn nets us closer to 2k more than checking does and that's a significant enough amount to make it the better decision. Anyway, I too would love to hear Neil's thoughts on these hands that you played together if he can remember anything about them

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY : Pot is 8.8k on the turn. Lets say we make a bet of 5.1k and Neil only folds 20% of the time (which will be hands like 3x and some 7x hands that don't turn a SD - eg. 76-74) 20% of the time we win 8.8k. On average that's a profit of 1.76k when he folds. 80% of the time he calls and we have on average 31.5% equity when called. So the total pot is 19k meaning we will win ~ 6k (rounded up) Had we just checked the turn, we would win on average 2.8k. So when making the bet, we are losing 3.2k (difference between 6 and 2.8k) This will happen 80% of the time. Thus, we will lose 2.56k on average when we bet 5.5k and he calls.  Subtract the 2 figures together of our profit when he folds/loss when he calls and we have a total loss of only 0.8k. Thus, for betting to be better than checking we need to make just 0.8k more on the river after we've bet the turn than if we had checked the turn. Given the pot is almost 2.2x bigger when we bet the turn, I think it's reasonable to assume we are definitely going to make that much. But, just to check a rough example: When the pot is 8.8k, lets assume we make a 2/3 sized value bet of 5.9k bet when we hit the straight/flush and Neil calls this bet only 20% of the time. (Of course he could raise the bet too, or bluff himself - and it might be more than 20%, but I used this low figure to find out the lowest possible amount we might make) - Thus, we will make 1.2k on average here. (20% of 5.9) When the pot is 19k, lets assume we make a bet of 2/3 sized value bet of 12.7k and again he only calls 20% of the time. Thus, we will make on average 2.5k. That's 1.3k more than we make in the smaller sized pot. Given we lost just 0.8k by betting the turn and gain 1.3k on the river, that's a total gain of 0.5k more we gain by making the turn bet. You could argue that because 0.5k is relatively a small amount (less than a bb currently) that it's still better to reduce variance and just check the turn. However, all of these are the very lowest estimates remember. So it's possible he folds slightly more than 20% OTT and it's also possible we gain a lot more OTR - particularly if he has a worse flush with a hand like 9d8d where we might win upwards of 30-40k (he leads, you raise, he calls - or you bet, he raises, you shove and he folds or calls) I suspect a true estimate would be that betting turn nets us closer to 2k more than checking does and that's a significant enough amount to make it the better decision. Anyway, I too would love to hear Neil's thoughts on these hands that you played together if he can remember anything about them
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Thanks for explaining these detailed scenarios Ivan. Quite compelling.

I remember someone posting earlier in this thread, something that Julian Thew said to them.

Which was, words to the effect of, "You don't always have to make the +ev play" (I guess this assumes you have a "skill" edge above the "table average." or a favorable stack ratio/table/ICM dynamic)

You have convinced me that it is the +ev play, but this could be, in my eyes, one of the exceptions that Julian refers to. Not wishing to appear big headed, but I felt I was probably the 3rd best player at the table and my image was fairly solid (So why take a high variance line at this stage? Even if it is +ev).

No prizes for guessing who the best and 2nd best players were at the table. :=)

Just a thought.

Cheers,

G

StayOrGo

UKPC2016 TWENTY_FIRST  HAND:

=======================

Blinds 300/600 Antie 75

Chip Count: 64K

Starting Hand: Ah7c

PRE-FLOP

I raise to 1.4K UTG+1, CUTOFF CALLS (Fairly Good Player), Blinds fold.

FLOP: Ac,9c,7d

I bet 1.5K (into a 4.5K pot), CUTOFF calls.

TURN: Kh

I bet 3.5K (into a pot of 7.5K), CUTOFF calls.

RIVER: 3h

OVER TO YOU GUYS (Check or Bet. If Bet, how much?)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

My Thoughts:

PRE_FLOP

A little wide open perhaps from UTG+1 with A7o, but reasonable enough imo.

FLOP: Ac,9c,7d

Most people will probably say that the C-bet of 1.5K was too small, however I wanted to keep in worse hands, weak draws and potentially backdoor draws. I've flopped massive really with two pair smashing my opponents range.

TURN:

Probably a fairly standard turn continuation bet of 3.5k with my two pair here.

RIVER: 3h

OVER TO YOU, WHAT WOULD YOU DO HERE?

CHECK OR BET? IF YOU BET, HOW MUCH? FEEL FREE TO POST THOUGHTS

Cheers,

G

Lambert180

I definitely think A7o is too wide an open UTG+1, too wide for me anyway, this is a fullring UKPC, right? I'd think it was a bit too loose to poen UTG1 in 6max, but deffo wayyy too loose (only imo of course) if fullring. It's not even that I'd recommend being uber tight UTG and UTG1, but I'd rather open hands that play well postflop where as A7o has no FD potential, no straight draw potential, the 7 is rarely gonna be TP and if we hit an Ax we've got a terrible kicker to go with it. It's just not a great spot imo.

As you've said yourself tat most would say the cbet is too small, I'd agree It's a pretty wet board, plenty of OESDs, gutsohts, FDs and ofc TP hands, lotssss to get value from and chances are if they do fold, they were probably gonna fold to any size (within reason). Fwiw, I'd go about 2.5k.

I'd go a bit bigger on the turn too, prob 4.5k or 5k.

As played, the pot on the river is 14.5k right? I'd be betting again, probably in the region of 9-10k.... maybe just under 10k actually to give that illusion that it's alot cheaper. In the same way that shops label stuff as 99p cos it 'sounds a lot cheaper' than £1, I think people are more likely yo call when the bet amoount doesn't cross a certain point, for some people it'll feel like there's a big gap inbetween calling 10,000 and calling 9,500.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME:

I definitely think A7o is too wide an open UTG+1, too wide for me anyway, this is a fullring UKPC, right? I'd think it was a bit too loose to poen UTG1 in 6max, but deffo wayyy too loose (only imo of course) if fullring. It's not even that I'd recommend being uber tight UTG and UTG1, but I'd rather open hands that play well postflop where as A7o has no FD potential, no straight draw potential, the 7 is rarely gonna be TP and if we hit an Ax we've got a terrible kicker to go with it. It's just not a great spot imo. As you've said yourself tat most would say the cbet is too small, I'd agree It's a pretty wet board, plenty of OESDs, gutsohts, FDs and ofc TP hands, lotssss to get value from and chances are if they do fold, they were probably gonna fold to any size (within reason). Fwiw, I'd go about 2.5k. I'd go a bit bigger on the turn too, prob 4.5k or 5k. As played, the pot on the river is 14.5k right? I'd be betting again, probably in the region of 9-10k.... maybe just under 10k actually to give that illusion that it's alot cheaper. In the same way that shops label stuff as 99p cos it 'sounds a lot cheaper' than £1, I think people are more likely yo call when the bet amoount doesn't cross a certain point, for some people it'll feel like there's a big gap inbetween calling 10,000 and calling 9,500.
Posted by Lambert180

Cheers for this Lambo, yes I agree, my play probably differs from the norm here, and yes it is 9 handed and the pot is 14.5K by the time the river is dealt.

However, as I alluded to earlier in this thread, my VPIP/PFR/3bet stats are higher than average, so of course that is going to mean that I, open raise, wider than average.

A 25/20/10 player (full ring) is likely to open with A7o UTG+1 here, where as, a 15/10/5 player, is very unlikely to.

So rather than this being "right" or "wrong". I think we can say, that it is "in-line" with my style and how I saw the table dynamic at the time.

If we opened this question up to every one, I'm sure aggresive players would say it's fine and tighter players would say it's too loose, so there is no real value in discussing this point in isolation, as I think it is a question of styles.

I am glad, however that you brought it up, as it is always worth re-iterating about how these plays should not be considered "good" or "bad" in isolation, and that they are dependant on the players style and table dynamic.

Also I alluded to earlier in this thread, that the more aggressive players are likely to play "Big Hands" slower, even at risk of getting out drawn. The small bet on the flop is an example of this imo. I just don't want them to fold.

I do take onboard your comments, and I think many people will agree with you. This is why I do try to get away from "right" or "wrong" and look at it in terms of benefits and drawbacks.

Thanks for the feedback. So, you are in the lead out on the river camp (About 9.5K). It will be interesting to see how others view this. I'm wondering if there will be anyone favouring the "check-call to induce/pot control against a monster" option.

Cheers,

G

F_Ivanovic

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY : Thanks for explaining these detailed scenarios Ivan. Quite compelling. I remember someone posting earlier in this thread, something that Julian Thew said to them. Which was, words to the effect of, "You don't always have to make the +ev play" (I guess this assumes you have a "skill" edge above the "table average." or a favorable stack ratio/table/ICM dynamic) You have convinced me that it is the +ev play, but this could be, in my eyes, one of the exceptions that Julian refers to. Not wishing to appear big headed, but I felt I was probably the 3rd best player at the table and my image was fairly solid (So why take a high variance line at this stage? Even if it is +ev). No prizes for guessing who the best and 2nd best players were at the table. :=) Just a thought. Cheers, G
Posted by StayOrGo

What you say is true; however, I accounted for our "edge" by saying that if it was just a 0.5k (or slightly less than 1bb) advantage then there is perhaps an option to take the lower variance route and check like you did. However, I think it's much likely that the true estimate is closer to at least a 2/possibly 3bb better. That's too significant an edge to pass up IMO especially in a spot that won't be too high variance in the first place. (ie. we're not putting in a significant portion of our stack at this point)

Our skill advantage in poker comes in many different forms - but being able to take the highest +ev option on a specific street is where some of our advantage comes from. 

Another quick point: By being able to barrel the turn with some strong semi-bluff hands as opposed to just made hands, we force our opponents to make less "wide" flop calls. I'm only speculating here, but it could be possible that Neil has picked up on the fact you are happy to fire a c-bet, but generally  won't continue OTT without a made hand. Thus, this enables him to call flop with his bottom pair knowing that he will be good enough % AND that he will be able to take his hand to showdown. If he's against someone that he knows will double barrel wider than just with value hands then calling the flop goes from being good to (likely) bad. Maybe I'm giving Neil too much credit though and he's just a fish that likes to call with bottom pair

Moving on to the A7o hand I would tend to agree with Lambert. I know you are looser than most but if you are opening A7 from UTG+1 then you are likely opening at least 25% of hands from that position. There are certainly some situations where you can get away with opening that wide, but a good player being on the CO is not something we want when widening our range here. There's just so many ways a good player can exploit a wide opening range like that in EP  

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: ** THE MELTDOWN BEGINS ** HANDS SEVENTEEN TO TWENTY : What you say is true; however, I accounted for our "edge" by saying that if it was just a 0.5k (or slightly less than 1bb) advantage then there is perhaps an option to take the lower variance route and check like you did. However, I think it's much likely that the true estimate is closer to at least a 2/possibly 3bb better. That's too significant an edge to pass up IMO especially in a spot that won't be too high variance in the first place. (ie. we're not putting in a significant portion of our stack at this point) Our skill advantage in poker comes in many different forms - but being able to take the highest +ev option on a specific street is where some of our advantage comes from.  Another quick point: By being able to barrel the turn with some strong semi-bluff hands as opposed to just made hands, we force our opponents to make less "wide" flop calls. I'm only speculating here, but it could be possible that Neil has picked up on the fact you are happy to fire a c-bet, but generally  won't continue OTT without a made hand. Thus, this enables him to call flop with his bottom pair knowing that he will be good enough % AND that he will be able to take his hand to showdown. If he's against someone that he knows will double barrel wider than just with value hands then calling the flop goes from being good to (likely) bad. Maybe I'm giving Neil too much credit though and he's just a fish that likes to call with bottom pair Moving on to the A7o hand I would tend to agree with Lambert. I know you are looser than most but if you are opening A7 from UTG+1 then you are likely opening at least 25% of hands from that position. There are certainly some situations where you can get away with opening that wide, but a good player being on the CO is not something we want when widening our range here. There's just so many ways a good player can exploit a wide opening range like that in EP  
Posted by F_Ivanovic

Thanks again for these points Ivan.

I think we may just need to agree to differ on these two scenarios. You have put across your points very well, and I take them on board, although, on balance I am OK with how I played them (particularly the A7o one to this point.) The other one is a closer call and I haven't finalised my conclusion yet.

I guess we are not going to convince each other all the time. However, the time taken, and the detail of your responses is much appreciated.

Cheers,

G

Lambert180

The thing is though, when someone is a 25/20 player for example, that's their average stats across all positions, generally because they are playing a much wider range from late position/CO/BTN, but will still be relatively tight in EP. Fwiw, I'm not against loosening up pre, I'd just rather do it with something that can flop a bit better, even the likes of T7s, 89s etc.

I think it could be open for debate/down to styles if we open A7o or not when UTG1 in a 6max game, that's a bit closer, but fullring though I think pretty much everyone is gonna say it's a fold pre.

According to standard hand range charts/Equilab kinda programs, you'd need to be opening 28% of hands (specifically from UTG1 only) to include A7o in your opening range, and if you're opening 28% from UTG1 then your overall VPIP must be in the region of 50-60%+ and I can't think of anyone with a 50-60% VPIP in full-ring games, maybe some of the best in the world but even then I'm not sure.

I'm not trying to have a dig at you all, and I doubt you do actually play 50-60% VPIP, I assume this was just a time you fancied opening.

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME:

The thing is though, when someone is a 25/20 player for example, that's their average stats across all positions , generally because they are playing a much wider range from late position/CO/BTN, but will still be relatively tight in EP. Fwiw, I'm not against loosening up pre, I'd just rather do it with something that can flop a bit better, even the likes of T7s, 89s etc. I think it could be open for debate/down to styles if we open A7o or not when UTG1 in a 6max game, that's a bit closer, but fullring though I think pretty much everyone is gonna say it's a fold pre. According to standard hand range charts/Equilab kinda programs, you'd need to be opening 28% of hands (specifically from UTG1 only) to include A7o in your opening range, and if you're opening 28% from UTG1 then your overall VPIP must be in the region of 50-60%+ and I can't think of anyone with a 50-60% VPIP in full-ring games, maybe some of the best in the world but even then I'm not sure. I'm not trying to have a dig at you all, and I doubt you do actually play 50-60% VPIP, I assume this was just a time you fancied opening.
Posted by Lambert180

Cheers for this Paul.

I think there are other things to take into consideration. Table dynamic, opponent styles etc, but I take your point.

FWIW, I posted my actual stats earlier in the thread.

This was from a HM2 P-Stars report from 128,000 hands. I've played > 2 million hands on Stars, but this is a fairly new laptop, and I didn't transfer HH's. However the stats were pretty much the same.

For 9 handed tables on Stars, they are:

VPIP: 25.2

PFR:   20.5

3bet:  9.76

My PFR from Early Position on Stars is 18.8%, which alows me to play A7o from UTG+1, in some cases (but certainly not all) I would say, full ring, I probably play A7o from UTG+1 25% of the time, depending on a multitude of circumstances. Some of those circumstances, will simply be a gut feel. On this occasion I felt the table, in general, was very passive, which was probably the deciding factor in my deciding to raise.

I suggested my stats (6 handed) on Sky are:

35/30/12

Following on from this. As much as I do make use of some things in HM2 on Stars (I wish HUDS didn't exist, but I feel I need one on Stars to be on a level playing field) , I've always been a "feel" player, so I don't play text book style at all. (This has advantages and disadvantages)

BTW, I THINK IT'S GREAT THAT THERE ARE NO HUD'S ON SKY (NOT THAT I'M AWARE OF ANYWAY)

I very much have my own way. In fact I think it is quite good to deviate from the norm, especially if the table dynamic is more text book amongst your opponents.

Of course this is a convenient statement for me, as it's always an argument in defense of my plays, when I deviate from the norm, text book. 

So, make of that what you will.

Cheers for the feedback.

G

Essexphil

1/10 second look of disgust and check for me here

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME:

1/10 second look of disgust and check for me here
Posted by Essexphil

Hi Phil, is this for hand 21? (The flopped two pair with A7)

If it is, you are probably just joking, but the run out wasn't bad for me on this hand, so no reason for disgust.

However if you are refering to hand 20 when we missed our Diamond and gut-shot (With AdTd), the the disgust expression makes more sense.

Cheers,

G

P.S. NOTE FOR ALL: It will be useful for me, if people can clarify the hand they are refering to, by it's number. Just to avoid any confusion.

Essexphil

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME : Hi Phil, is this for hand 21? (The flopped two pair with A7) If it is, you are probably just joking, but the run out wasn't bad for me on this hand, so no reason for disgust. However if you are refering to hand 20 when we missed our Diamond and gut-shot (With AdTd), the the disgust expression makes more sense. Cheers, G P.S. NOTE FOR ALL: It will be useful for me, if people can clarify the hand they are refering to, by it's number. Just to avoid any confusion.
Posted by StayOrGo

Hand 21.

Not just joking-will 50% of the time check call there. agree it is strong, but would like someone else to bet

StayOrGo

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME : Hand 21. Not just joking-will 50% of the time check call there. agree it is strong, but would like someone else to bet
Posted by Essexphil

Hi Phil.

So are you check calling primarily to induce a bluff, or do you think you may be behind? Or bit of both? Could you put a percentage on it?

I would suggest I'm ahead say 80% of the time. (Don't know if you agree)

So in my mind, if I check/called it would be primarily to try and induce a bluff, if I think he has missed a draw. It is also pot control for the 20% of the time that I am behind.

If people opinions differ widely to this, then their "reason" for check/calling may more weighted to pot control, than bluff inducing. So it's worth thinking about how often you would consider yourself to be ahead. Then having determined that, how often do you think he'd call a river bet and finally. How often to you think he'd attempt to bluff a missed draw/weak holding.

So lets ask the wider audience this question first, as these points are key in determining the best river play.

HOW OFTEN DO YOU THINK I AM AHEAD AFTER THE RIVER?

Cheers,

G

Essexphil

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME:

In Response to Re: StayOrGo UKPC Hand Review: LATEST POST ABOUT LIVE TELLS. MAY BE USEFUL FOR ONLINE PLAYERS GOING TO VEGAS WSOP FOR THE FIRST TIME : Hi Phil. So are you check calling primarily to induce a bluff, or do you think you may be behind? Or bit of both? Could you put a percentage on it? I would suggest I'm ahead say 80% of the time. (Don't know if you agree) So in my mind, if I check/called it would be primarily to try and induce a bluff, if I think he has missed a draw. It is also pot control for the 20% of the time that I am behind. If people opinions differ widely to this, then their "reason" for check/calling may more weighted to pot control, than bluff inducing. So it's worth thinking about how often you would consider yourself to be ahead. Then having determined that, how often do you think he'd call a river bet and finally. How often to you think he'd attempt to bluff a missed draw/weak holding. So lets ask the wider audience this question first, as these points are key in determining the best river play. HOW OFTEN DO YOU THINK I AM AHEAD AFTER THE RIVER? Cheers, G
Posted by StayOrGo

i think you are ahead 75-80% of the time, so (to my mind) the pot control bit is 20-25%. People are probably calling a 50% bet with any a and 2 pair-just feel may get more action by checking

FeelGroggy

Hand 21- I wouldn't elect to open this personally, If I was to get a bit looser with opens I'd prefer to do it with a hand like 75s which can smash a big disguised hand sometimes. A7o plays badly postflop and even when we hit top pair we aren't going to be loving our hand. 

I think I'd bet a bit larger on the flop and turn. I can't see the turn but I imagine its some kind of brick. 

On the river we could elect to check call his missed draws. However I think given he's called an EP open his only bluffs are going to be JTs or QJc. I think he's much more likely to have some kind of value here, whether its KQc KJc which hit a king (which could potentially just fold) or just a hand like AJ/ AQ. Given that some draws miss, he might be more inclined to make a light call on the river so I think I bet. If we had a weaker ace here, such as A8s, I would probably check call as there are less hands to value bet from which makes bluff catching a more attractive option