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Or is Dohhhhhhh winding me up lol
Was listening to that Poker Mindset audio book again yesterday because I was doing a 3 hour drive and didn't fancy listening to anything else. And it gives an example where a guy has a win-rate (at cash) of 10BB per hour, and he loses a BI and thinks, 'great that's 10 hours of work to catch up' but he doesn't realise that his 10BB per hour win-rate already incorporates the fact that he will lose some big pots.
As JJ said, someone who has a 10% ROI at hypers, is not gonna be at 10% ROI for every say 100 block of games, he will have horrible runs, and lovely runs.
So in summary, I'm still well confident this is gonna be a good month for me. Fairly confident (variance permitted), I can achieve 5% ROI which is £262.50 profit over 1000 games, and I worked out the other day, if I just do the absolute minimum and play 1000 games, and don't do any other games of any sort, I'll earn 3000 poker points which is £42.
One theory I am also putting out at the mo to maybe think about is I have been on the site since about late 2008 I think and I have seen over the last year the number of bingo style players increase to such a large level, now I know long term as indivduals they dont win but as a collective they do so have they changed the pot odds as an added varience.
Now I am too thick to ever be able to work something like that out but maybe a challange for a maths genius to look at.
Your target looks very achievable and you have to do it or I will stop reading your diary lol
I wouldn't go as far as calling myself a "Genius" but I have been know to of worked out some pretty advanced equations in the past and may be able to assist.
There are many variables missing that we would need before we can accurately collate the emergence of these types of players with a view to working out the direct and indirect effect it has on the "Pot Odds", "Variance" and "Chance". A factor you have mentioned is them losing "In the long run" so to get an accurate figure we will need to run this over a trial test of 5,000,000 hands. This should be easy if we work together to formulate a basic reading before delving into the more advanced stuff.
Ok, so with this in mind I need the 3 variables that will help me get a base reading on these "Bingo Players". If someone has the information we can move on to seeing how it effects us. Here is the information I require:
1- Are they using dabbers or a standard pen to mark their cards? (No need to specify if its felt tip or standard ink)
2- Are they playing a book of 6 or single tickets?
3- Are we looking at standard "One Line", "Two Line" and "Full House" players or the more diverse and may I add abnormal "4 Corner" and "Pattern" type players?
As soon as I have all the info I will get to work and we can actually get to the bottom of how to deal with these people.
I look forward to getting started.
One thing I've noticed is that table selection on that site is virtually impossible because by the time you've seen someone is in a game and would want to register against them, the games full, so you basically just have to register and see who ya get.
I played 48 games and only won 17
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Sky Games Played: 139
Sky Profit/Loss: +£30.25
Poker Points: 422
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??? Games Player: 48
??? Profit/Loss: -$55.90
========================
In the end I played 21 games and won 16 of them (they weren't all against the cash machine) for a nice £39.75 profit. Always nice to have your runbad on low stakes (the other site) and your rungood on the higher stakes (Sky). Cruising along at just over 8% ROI now
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Sky Games Played: 160
Sky Profit/Loss: +£70.00
Poker Points: 485
=======================
??? Games Player: 48
??? Profit/Loss: -$55.90
========================
I am sure it will turn around for you very quickly gl
Hope things improve for you, although I guess being an MTT specialist must mean you're an expert when it comes to understanding/handling variance.
The £1.50 was a bit of a guess to be honest, but yeah alright £2.28, the point was that I play alot lower stakes on that site, so nice to have my runbad there, and my rungood here where I'm playing twice the stakes
The majority of my play is on Sky anyway, especially seen as I've gotta get 1000 games in this month, and really I wanna play more than that anyway.
So you don't really get much chance for game selection cos you generally try to register and just need to tick a box that says 'auto-register me for the next one I don't register for this one in time'.
However, at Sky, I won't go into it too much detail or name names, but there are people where it makes no sense for me to play them/them to play me because the edge is so small. I've only found about 3 regs so far that i would actively choose not to play my my stakes of HU on Sky.
EDIT: Also, I play Hypers, not Turbos
Played 73 games and won 34 for a loss of £43.25.
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Sky Games Played: 233
Sky Profit/Loss: +£26.75
Poker Points: 704
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??? Games Player: 48
??? Profit/Loss: -$55.90
========================
Sucks a bit to not be up as much as I was, and for my ROI to have dropped quite a bit, but I'm still running at just over 2% which aint too bad for some of the runbad I've had to play through, and I've nearly got 25% of my games done now.
How are you guys getting on? Can we get some graphs please?
Paul
Yeah I wouldn't be too concerned at all Splashies, nothing too wrong about breaking even for a while. Plenty of days have happened where I'd give anything to be break even lol.
Glad I've got a quarter of my games out the way now, and if 1000 works out as 33 games per day, then I'm a bit ahead of schedule and will be taking tonight off, and possibly tomorrow. Need to mentally re-cover cos I was pretty mashed last night as JJ may have seen from my message on FB lol.
I played 21 games and won 12 of them for £9.75 profit
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Sky Games Played: 254
Sky Profit/Loss: +£36.50
Poker Points: 767 (£6.14)
=======================
??? Games Player: 48
??? Profit/Loss: -$55.90
========================
I'm still running pretty horribly so happy to make any sort of profit from this session. Got one guy down to about 100 chips, then shoved QQ into AA. Then I got AA, min-raised to try to make sure I definitely got him all-in cos he was short, he calls with some complete junk 4x hand and flops trip 4s lol. Did manage to come back and win it in the end though.
Hopefully the runbad monsters will have gone away by the time I come back (I know I'm being silly, I'm joking).
just 1 question;
where u have put sky profit/loss +£36.50
is that just for this month,ie;june,?
i think it is...just checking.
gl buddy
:-)
dev
I'll be playing these until I'm rolled to give the £11s a go, and hopefully never look back. I'll want £600-£700 to give them a go, and I'm confident I can have my roll there by the end of July. I'll have earned around £100 just in C4P over June and July, so then I just need to make £150 profit each month from them, which will be a pretty small ROI from the numbers of games I play.
I know Tommyd plays a lot of STG I assume its at the £50+ level because it does seam hard to build any decent C4P on them. No different to the MTT very hard to build a decent C4P.
I suppose you would need to be playing 8/10 DYM tables at once at higher stakes to make any decent points but the risks are lower just wondered what you thought as I do need to rebuild my bankroll at mo and was thinking maybe the £11 would be a good option.