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Heritage Boo Weekly 33-1
Spanish open Simon Dyson 55-1
No obvious course form to go on this week, so I figured Kristofer Broberg at 100/1 could be a good bet (and backed him) this week, based on the 'logic' that on his rookie season, most weeks he's up against at least half the field who have solid course experience, so this week could be more of a level playing field.
However after a bit of research I've come up with 3 new selections, all outsiders so ew first 5:
Mathew Baldwin - 70/1, 5th last time out, not the longest on tour, but this course is less than 7000 yards, so hopefully length off the tee won't be a factor, course is expected to play firm, with links feel and wind could be a factor. Baldwin grew up playing links golf and even in England must have more than his fair sure of playing on firm courses and has already shown himself capable of coping better than most with windy conditions.
Lee Slattery - 100/1, similar make up to Baldwin, though with a lot more experience. Slattery's only win on the tour came in Spain, he's a good wind and links player and has made a steady start to the season, hopefully he'll get the feel good factor for this course and venue.
Eduardo De La Riva - 175/1, been around as a pro for 11+ years, his rookie season on tour was 2002, but to date has never quite 'made it'. Missed the cut in his last 4 events on tour. So why back him this week?
Finished 9th at tour school to win his card for this year, finished 2nd (be it reduced to 36 holes) to Scott Jamieson in his first event of the season. Played on the challenge tour last year and won an event in Spain, Canary Islands to be precise, beating Simon Wakefield.
Best results have come on Spanish soil, he also came 3rd in the Andalucia Open last year, finishing ahead of the likes of Jiminez, Lynn, Jaquelin, Lowry and Siem.
The fact that he has remained a pro for 10+ years and not spent that much time on the main tour, I'm going with the perception that he will have been playing a lot of lower level tournaments in Spain and so will have had the time and opportunity to gain some decent course experience.
Finally he's close friends with Pablo Larrazabal, so should be feeling comfortable and well at home this week.
I'm not even looking at all those stats on the pga tour this week, I'm going with a simpler plan, course form and gut instinct!
Boo Weekley - 40/1,The Heritage appears to be a horses for courses more than most tournaments, so Boo Weekley ticks that box with his only tour win coming here, he didn't have a great season last year but still managed tied 6th in this event. This year he look's to be getting back to his best and already has a 2nd place finish, should give me a good run for money this week.
Brian Gay - 66/1, another previous winner of The Heritage and having a good season this year with one win already, never in contention but best finish in The Masters last week, so the games in good shape, good ew value at 66/1.
Tim Clark - 66/1, this pick comes from the gut more than anything else, my gut tells me this course should suit Clark and he's playing well at the moment. That said his recent course form is not that great, you have to go back to 2006 for his best finish which was tied 7th, this was the week after Clark finished 2nd in The Masters. Tim Clarks' best finish in The Masters since 2006 was last week with a very creditable tied 11th, so I like the fact that this year Clark comes to the Heritage in good nick.
Jason Day @25/1 ew
In good form and hoping he gets boost from masters - although odds have probably taken a hit because of it to.
Bill Haas @40/1 ew
Solid masters and pretty good results so far in 2013
Greame Mcdowell @40/1ew
I just cant get off the gmac ship!! he's never played it before (didnt check before 2008). I think he played better at the masters than his score reflected and he's in reasonably good form so far this season.
Robert Garrigus @66/1 ew
No real rhyme or reason to this one. his results and masters werent bad and what i seen of him he seemed to swinging well
Richard Sterne @80/1 ew
Again just an instinct thing.
Will post my open de espana bets up when i put them on.
On another note found a good link for accessing pga tour results in case anybody else is interested. Gives full leaderboard results going back to 1977:
http://sports.yahoo.com/golf/pga/schedule?season=2013
I mainly stick to the bigger tournaments but because i have a little bit of winnings from the masters thought i'd have another go this week lol. If i dont win anything i'll probably wait until the us open to have another go. Had quite a good year last year with good wins on Mcilroy winning the pga and els winning the open.
What about yourself you bet on it most weeks?
Larrazabal @ 20/1
Cabrerra-Bello @33/1
No great thinking on these - they're both spanish and half decent players lol I fancy Castano too but his odds just put me off.
Put my 2 in 4 ew doubles with Mahan and Simpson. Thinking here is that Mahan and Simpson are both decent players usually but had a very poor masters and beginning to the season in general so their odds are better than normal, they'll have had more time to prepare for this than most of the other big players and they have to turn their form round sooner or later lol Doubles are always a long shot in golf anyway.
So total bet for RBC and Espana is £20. So got a wee bit to play with from my winnings (£35) from the masters for some in play fun or last minute punts lol
Hope your good run continues this week with Brian Gay
US open Fowler 50/1
Open Champ Oosthuizen 33/1
PGA Snedeker 25/1 (had to request this one over the phone)
£1 ew.
Before placing the bet I decided to check the potential winnings etc which made me feel that if two won and one placed £700 seemed a bit rubbish as I'd only win the place part of it.
This led me to discovering a different each way bet I never knew about.......equally divided. This now means (assuming they all place) if one wins I get £880, if two win I get £4k and if all three roll in I get £22k. The normally each way bet would see me get £45k if they all win or £700 if they all place. With the equally divided bet I'm better off if at least one of them wins but worse off if they all win or all just place (no winners). The things you learn lol it's got no chance anyway!
Anybody else done one of these before?
With the equally divided ew bet it splits the returns made from the previous result and places that on the next event/race etc
so say if put an equally divided ew treble on 3 events for £1 ew (total stake £2). First player is 10/1 odds. if i win first event I win 14.5. This 14.5 is then split in two i.e. 7.25 and put each way on the next event. and so on.
Tried to find an easier explanation online and this is the best i could find lol
http://www.strategicbetting.co.uk/blog/articles/the-each-way-equally-divided-method-explained/
Basically means if i feel that it's likely 1 will win and the others "might" win i'm better off with this type of ew bet.
1 of mine has got the kiss of death by being the skybet golf experts tip! Looking forward to it all kicking off again tomorrow - as long i get a bit of a sweat with my picks on the sunday I'll be reasonably happy! Nothing worse than your picks being out of contention by before the weekend!
Strange first day in Spain, a lot of big names struggled, but the leaderboard is very bunched, so some players may still be in it that earlier yesterday looked out of it, if you see what I mean.
After reading the weather forecast, which suggested a fairly benign morning followed by high winds and rain in the afternoon I backed a couple of players in running last night, that had early tee times.
Mark Warren 60/1 who is 2 under for his round and tied for the lead after 9, so probably about to go on a bogey run now I've posted the bet on here.
The other one was Mark Tullo 100/1, who is sadly +2 for his round and +1 after 7 holes.
Edit: I have no idea if the weather forecast has or is turning out be accurate!