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I've decided I'm not embracing this threads' goodwill by not listening to the wise men on here, I knew he was a popular pick but hadn't realised that, Splashies, Flash and Joesman (The 3 Wise Men) are on Casey this week.
So despite my initital reservations, I've joined the party and backed Paul Casey ew at 50/1.
After all, I've done some of your money in on Graham DeLaet in the past so if Casey doesn't pull it off this week I figure we are quits
For good measure I've broken my 33/1 or better rule and doubled Casey with Nick Watney at 25/1.
Good Luck all, especially with Paul Casey!!!
I'm not a big fan of first round leader markets, but I quite fancy waking up to see a leaderboard with one of my picks sitting on top, so I've backed a few myself, I'll admit to who I backed tomorrow.
Don't think there is anything left to jinx, so I can safely say my other first round leader bets were Lee Slattery, Brett Rumford and Kiradech Aphibarnrat.
It look's like Louis has brought his A game this week, long way to go I know, but the others could already be playing for a place.
Looking forwards to New Orleans, I see from Jackda's post that the Racing Post have tipped Graham DeLaet, just saying
The messageboard curse strikes again, after playing a flawless back 9, I post that and Louis goes and bogey's the 10th!
Currently there are 5 players tied for the lead, if it finished that way, my 80/1 shot would become 80/1 divide by 5 giving me a 16 /1 winner.
With Louis one behind and still 2 par 5's to play I can see him at least joining the leaders, so then the returns are reduced further.
Same applies to the place side of the bet if there are more than 5 players finishing in the top 5, the odds are reduced accordingly.
That's what I don't like about first round betting, its very difficult to pick a winning bet and when you do it's very difficult to get the full returns back.
That hasn't stopped me having a go at New Orleans though.
Win bet: 80/1 divided by 5 = 16/1
Place bet: 80/1 divided by 4 = 20/1
still assuuming louis doesnt join the leaders in which case it would 20/1 divided by 6 multiplied by 5.
That correct? lol
I'm not 100% sure, so I hope it does stay as it is, at least to understand the 'dead heat' rules more clearly.
edit: yes I believe that's how they calculate the place odds as well.
Looks like we will have to wait until tomorrow and Tommy Fleetwood and Louis, could get in on at least -5, so there's not going be much left!
I only had £2 ew, so I'm not going to lose much sleep over it, lol.
Firstly Matt Jones, some may or may not recall I've picked him a couple of times this season and hi-lighted the fact that he had recently achieved low rounds of the day in two tournaments.
Well Matt Jones did it again last week, sharing low round with GMC on day 2, so this week I'm hoping he can achieve another low round of the day and this time on day 1!
Matt Jones - Outright - ew 125/1
Matt Jones - First Round Leader - ew 100/1
Matt Jones - Top Rest of world - ew 20/1
NB. I'll take 2nd to Graham DeLaet in all of these markets
First round Leaders all ew
Graham DeLaet - 80/1
Ryan Palmer - 70/1
Charles Howell III - 50/1
Marcel Siem - 70/1
Nearly did it again with my next bet, but just spotted the 'mistake' before I confirmed.
I could have sworn I clicked on the first round leader market as well, so I'm wondering if there's something not quite right with the links to the first round market page?
You never know Flash you might end up with a surprise winner this week.
Next time I'll be watching closely for any snags.
If Baldwin does end up finishing in a tie for the lead, I'll post the question, asking for the first correct answer to how much I got back for my £2 ew.
Good luck with the in running market and better luck in New Orleans.