Get in the Hole! 2017 Season!

jdsallstar

Done a little bit of research and found out that there seems to be a bit of reverse relationship between the open and the RBC i.e. do well in the open do poorly in Canada and vice versa. So I'm staying away from most of the favourites who all had decent open championships.

There's bit of a trend between the PGA tour event that runs alongside the open and the Canada open. 2012 really had this connection i.e. where 5 of the top 9 in Canada where all in the top 10 in the True South Classic. Also seems to be a bit of a connection between those who didn't play the week before (i.e. open or other 1) but did well in the John Deere and Greenbrier in the two weeks before the open week. Maybe it's because the non-open events are all low scoring events and the open is traditionally won with a score closer to par their game is better prepared for the low scoring RBC Canada. Might be just travel and the hangover from the intensity of a major.


Didn't do much research on the Russian one as I think the field is so poor it's a bit of a lottery.

Based on the above my picks are:

RBC Canada

Daniel Summerhays    50/1       T2 in Sandersons, T4 in John Deers and T9 in Greenbrier

Matt Jones                 66/1       T7 in John Deere and T2 in Greenbrier.

Horschel and Delaet fall into my didn't do well in the Open category but their odds aren't great and I've backed them a few times with no return. So i've fell out with them lol so they're guaranteed winners now!

M2M Russian Open

Rikard Karlberg          45/1       Came 4th in Nordea Masters is the only reason for this one lol

Gareth Shaw              66/1        First year on tour and has made 9 cuts out of 12 (albeit the majority being on the challenge tour. Of the 3 he missed two were in his first 3 events. He has only one top 5 and that was in Ireland but followed that up with a very respectable T13 in the Open de France. In the three European tour events he's played in he has finished T15 or better in all three. So with the weak field he must stand a decent chance in this one. Oh and he's Northern Irish

£1 ew singles and doubles.

Gl all

BELL_POKER

have the USPGA down to a shortlist of Horschel, English, Laird and Haas. Steve Bamford good write up in importance of driving distance and greens in regulation stats to go well in the final major, doesnt suit shorter hitters, even in a lower yardage such as this years. Will wait and see how they get on at the warm up at the Bridgestone the week before. Rory has gone well there past few years including 5th last year and may be worth keeping an eye on to recapture some form, though in fairness it does look a long way off for him at present. 

never heard of half the field in russia, wont be watching it either. candadian open lucky for me last year had Piercy e/w in both 1st round and outright markets. 

concentrating on 1st round only to begin this time, go with 2 who went well last time hosted here in 2009 (including winner!) and Villegas who led in the 1st round in that occasion when shooting a 63. Villegas an ideal candidate for 1st round as tricky for him to put 2 never mind 4 good rounds together, but always has that big day in him where he can get really hot.

1ST ROUND LEADER

JERRY KELLY 66/1

NATHAN GREEN 125/1

CAMILLO VALLEGAS 80/1 

FlashFlush

I think Jerry Kelly has withdrawn..

joesman1

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Russian Open + Candian Open) Year Profit: +539.96pts:

I think Jerry Kelly has withdrawn..
Posted by FlashFlush

Excellent news for Mr Bell then..... 1st return on a golf bet for a while!! Lol.... See u on Fri night Charles 

jdsallstar

decided to put on a bet for a bit of fun:

Senior British Open:  Mark Calcavecchia 25/1
RBC Canada:           Matt Jones           66/1
M2M Russia:            David Horsey       25/1

£1 EW treble Potential winnings £45,962 (about £700 if they all place). Come on!!!

jdsallstar

oh and first round leader:

RBS Canada    Kyle Stanley     100/1
RBS Canada    Camilo Villegas   80/1
M2M Russia     Soren Hansen    50/1
M2M Russia     Gary Lockerbie  100/1

50p ew doubles only!

wynne1938

RBS Canadian Open;

Brandt Snedeker 12/1
Matt Kuchar 18/1
Hunt Mahan 20/1
Billy Horschel 35/1
Chris Kirk 50/1
Scott Stalling 66/1

joesman1

I see our mate Yevgeny is teeing it up tomorrow... I'm saying 85

FlashFlush

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Russian Open + Candian Open) Year Profit: +539.96pts:

I see our mate Yevgeny is teeing it up tomorrow... I'm saying 85
Posted by joesman1

I was hoping that other Russian who was on for 90+ the other month was going to play. Can't remember his name now. Anyone remember? Something like Skoboda but I think that's the name of the guy who plays on the PGA Tour.

FlashFlush

Come on Korhonen 100/1. Very nice steady -3 today :-)

I see Yevgeny started with a nice triple bogey. lol

jdsallstar

Matt Jones pulled out of the RBC Canada so just added Kyle Stanley to my team at 50/1.

With karlberg doing so well it's a shame I didn't have two runners for my double in the RBC Canada. Summerhays sitting ok at -2 and hopefully puts in a good round today. He has the earliest tee off time so hopefully it goes like yesterday with the morning starters hitting the lowest round!

BELL_POKER

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Russian Open + Candian Open) Year Profit: +539.96pts:

Gone for a different approach this week. 3 in Europe and 1 win only in America Madsen 25/1 Kingston 50/1 Korhonen 100/1 Mahan 18/1 - Win only £1 e/w doubles
Posted by FlashFlush

mahan has withdrawn when runaway leader. ouch 

wynne1938

Hi Wynne,

We are contacting you in regard to your bet placed on Hunter Mahan (To Win Outright RBC Canadian Open). As a gesture of goodwill and contrary to our rules we have settled this selection as a void.

Kind regards,
The bet365 Team

BELL_POKER

all bookies should do the same. they wont but they should. but he was running away with it its only a small consolation. he surely has to be looked up for the coming weeks/months - in great form at present. wonder if fatherhood will have an effect on that form. it understandably does on alot of occasions

FlashFlush

Yeah, Mahan withdrawing was 1 of many FML moments this weekend :-(

BELL_POKER

FML? for us dinosaurs who do not abbreviate?

FlashFlush

Fudge* my life... lol. I thought I had a good chance of some decent money this weekend, with Mahan out infront looking very good and Korhonen and Kingston both in good spots in Europe there was deffo an e/w double on the cards and even a chance of the outright double.

I also made day2 of the SPT. 40 came back with 33 paid, I was first out in 40th so all that for nothing...

I'll get over it.... eventually.

*May not be the correct word, but I'm sure you can work it out.

splashies

Ul  Flash

Kaleka came 2nd for me in Russia, so a wiining week. Matsuyama unlikely to place tonight, so gl those with runners tonight.

BELL_POKER

oh i see! ah well chin up 40th still a good showing. besides by reading the thread looks like joesman has used up enough luck for both of yas / the entire room (delete as appropriate)

wynne1938

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (Russian Open + Candian Open) Year Profit: +539.96pts:

RBS Canadian Open; Brandt Snedeker 12/1 Matt Kuchar 18/1 Hunt Mahan 20/1 Billy Horschel 35/1 Chris Kirk 50/1 Scott Stalling 66/1
Posted by wynne1938

Had a result!

£60 staked £130 returned

DOHHHHHHH

re the Mahan withdrawl, wasn't the chances of this happening taken into consideration by the bookies (and punters, good ones anyway) when they were pricing him up, and therefore 'all fair' ? 

His missus was heavily pregnant, surely wasn't a shock to them when this happened, unlike if it was something sudden such as a family illness/death etc? 

BELL_POKER

maybe the punters didnt know. hunter certainly did and maybe shouldnt have played. just my opinion

FlashFlush

I wasn't aware she was about to drop. I tend to look at current form rather than persnal life ;-).

Bell is rght though, unless she was like 3 weeks early or something he shouldn't of been playing. Done his image the world of good though.

FlashFlush

Does anyone think Rory could be a good bet this week?

Obviously he isn't in great form, but looking at his PGA tour results this year, he has played 11 events, made 9 cuts and 4 of those are top 10's 1 of those was 2nd.... those are stats a lot of tour players would take!

He is pushed right out to 28/1 this week! His course form is pretty good as well, last 3 years have been 5th, 6th and 9th.

I know it's been said pretty much every tournie he's in, but he really is a player that could turn up and play well out of nowhere.

It appears to be playing outside of America where he struggles...

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (WGC Bridgestone) Year Profit: +554.96pts:

Does anyone think Rory could be a good bet this week? Obviously he isn't in great form, but looking at his PGA tour results this year, he has played 11 events, made 9 cuts and 4 of those are top 10's 1 of those was 2nd.... those are stats a lot of tour players would take! He is pushed right out to 28/1 this week! His course form is pretty good as well, last 3 years have been 5th, 6th and 9th. I know it's been said pretty much every tournie he's in, but he really is a player that could turn up and play well out of nowhere. It appears to be playing outside of America where he struggles...
Posted by FlashFlush

flash I was just thinking the same thing!! that's the best odds he's been for well over a year and it's a course he clearly is comfortable on. it's also a course where there's plenty of birdie opportunities which is the kind of course I think mcilroy likes.

problem is with rory if it isn't in the mood he'll just put his head down and shoot a horrible score - which is very frustrating if you've backed him!

Zach Johnson at 40/1 looks like a good solid bet to me!

FlashFlush

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (WGC Bridgestone) Year Profit: +554.96pts:

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (WGC Bridgestone) Year Profit: +554.96pts : flash I was just thinking the same thing!! that's the best odds he's been for well over a year and it's a course he clearly is comfortable on. it's also a course where there's plenty of birdie opportunities which is the kind of course I think mcilroy likes. problem is with rory if it isn't in the mood he'll just put his head down and shoot a horrible score - which is very frustrating if you've backed him! Zach Johnson at 40/1 looks like a good solid bet to me!
Posted by jdsallstar

Yeah that does sound good. It looks from history that the consistent players do the best here so he should be up there. I was thinking Steve Stricker, he seems to be up there every year and 33/1.

Not sure Tiger is nailed on. he hasn't won here since 2009 when he was ridiculously dominant all year!

EDIT: Don't take 40/1! That is the shortest around, look on oddschecker, he is between 50's and 66 with everyone else!

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (WGC Bridgestone) Year Profit: +554.96pts:

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (WGC Bridgestone) Year Profit: +554.96pts : Yeah that does sound good. It looks from history that the consistent players do the best here so he should be up there. I was thinking Steve Stricker, he seems to be up there every year and 33/1. Not sure Tiger is nailed on. he hasn't won here since 2009 when he was ridiculously dominant all year! EDIT: Don't take 40/1! That is the shortest around, look on oddschecker, he is between 50's and 66 with everyone else!
Posted by FlashFlush

Good spot cheers flash. stricks does have a good record here with 3 top 10's in last 4 years I'm just not sure if he can win in such a strong field! Maybe a top 5/10 bet could be good for him!

was very surprised at Mahan being 28/1 thought that was a little short - the guy has just had a baby i'm not sure golf would have been his top priority this week lol maybe it's just because he's been in the news they're worried he'll get bigger backing this week!

BELL_POKER

rorys a great bet this week. he is not nailed on to win or even to show up well for that matter but priced up accordingly at 33's (magic sign) which is huge for someone so talented and who has had 3 good finishes here last 3 years. this much more his kind of test than the likes of the open and last years PGA win shows these courses play to strengths. Ben Coley Sporting life selects him and MOLINARI and the latter is, as stated by him, great value at 150/1. one thing i didnt kn ow which mr coley pointed out was that Francesco has been on record of saying this one of his fave courses so certainly worth a dabble in both outright and 1st round markets. 

same applies to martin laird who has respectful results at Firestone. rory will be win only in the outright as id feel pretty silly if he won at those odds when his previous course form is so strong. 

the keegster first caught my eye here 2011 and backed him the following week at the pga and then last year here for 2 big results. he should have a half decent showing this time around but disagree with the aforementioned Mr Coley this time who selects him as his main pick and will be leaving him out of any staking plan for the moment anyway, which is tough considering he is my favourite golfer, a decision i may come to regret we'll see.......

jdsallstar

In Response to Re: Get in the Hole! 2013 Season! (WGC Bridgestone) Year Profit: +554.96pts:

rorys a great bet this week. he is not nailed on to win or even to show up well for that matter but priced up accordingly at 33's (magic sign) which is huge for someone so talented and who has had 3 good finishes here last 3 years. this much more his kind of test than the likes of the open and last years PGA win shows these courses play to strengths. Ben Coley Sporting life selects him and MOLINARI and the latter is, as stated by him, great value at 150/1. one thing i didnt kn ow which mr coley pointed out was that Francesco has been on record of saying this one of his fave courses so certainly worth a dabble in both outright and 1st round markets.  same applies to martin laird who has respectful results at Firestone. rory will be win only in the outright as id feel pretty silly if he won at those odds when his previous course form is so strong.  the keegster first caught my eye here 2011 and backed him the following week at the pga and then last year here for 2 big results. he should have a half decent showing this time around but disagree with the aforementioned Mr Coley this time who selects him as his main pick and will be leaving him out of any staking plan for the moment anyway, which is tough considering he is my favourite golfer, a decision i may come to regret we'll see.......
Posted by BELL_POKER

Really?! don't get me wrong he's a great golfer but jeez he's hard to watch with the length of time he takes to do anything and the jittery antics crack me up!

BELL_POKER

money talks due to the PGA win and he has good irish roots , love the guy , love the jittery antics and all the rest. as self proclaimed WUM , anything that winds others up is all good  ; )